Member Info for Fortissimo

I'm Spartacus!

Also, payback time on their current mine plan is 3 years. SOLG just under 4 years. Although ultimately with TAM and higher metal prices, I think payback on SOLG investment likely to be nearer 3 years now when all planned in. In fairness, Capstone would drop to 2.5 years or less with metal prices where they are today or higher.

That's the real point here... valuations (transactions) are based on project metrics using metal prices on long term basis. To get full benefit from higher metal prices as of now, you need to be a producer... as of now. That said, I think raising finance much easier now due to projected metal prices compared to years past.

Interesting to see numbers on Capstone as LOM 20 years, whereas Alpala currently 28 years. They also use metal prices which are approx 5% ish higher than SOLG right now but still country mile away from where metals are right now.

Using basic SOLG (outdated numbers as TAM moved on etc etc) our After-tax NPV8%: US$3.5B but that likely to rise toward $4bln post TAM/metal prices uplift and that's being conservative.

So about £1 a share for SOLG in comparison.

Orion also hold a 12% equity stake in capstone (like our dear Jiangxi fellows mmm).

So if numbers right, Jiangxi, would need to stump up close to $1bln for a 25% stake in Alpala.

Chuck in the $750m stream deal and that's us fully financed with a 75% stake retained.

But with TAM and early production, we might well see half of that required (eg Jiangxi stump up $500m for 12.5% direct interest) and we fund the other $500m via cash flows on TAM.

Makes our market cap of sub £600m look grossly undervalued.

BHP and NMM still here. They haven't gone anywhere. Both need copper resources and both have a 10% stake here.

Their game of diluting the little guy is down the toilet. But as witnessed by NMM's divestments of late, they also jetison assets that they no longer care about.

For now, they clearly still care about SOLG. Unsurprising really. But NMM likely the weaker link than BHP imho and what they do with their 10% holding could be crucial here soon.

The stock was 39p+ in and around teh covid days. The story just got lost in the high inflation / poor management story.

The story has advanced dramatically for the better since those days and when you throw in the doubling of metal prices, you'd have to say logic says the stock should be 80p+. So to be at sub 20p in today's climate is woeful. The market has valued peers at much higher levels relative to their assets. SOLG needs to be in the 40's again just to look like it's done nothing since 2020 lol!

Some forget that the crucial part to Alpala story was and still is the TSF solution. TAM not only delivers that, but it also ticks off the potential early funding cashflows/self finance part etc etc.

In 2020 when sp was 30p+, we didn't own 100% of the asset. We owned just 85%. It was fragmented and complicated to a buyer. Now it's 100% wrapped up in a nice tax effecient swiss entity.

A return to 25p to 30p levels used to be the 'norm' for many mid term investors here 5 or 6 years ago. That's the very least it should be or have been.

NGEx Minerals Ltd have a market cap of $5.14 billion CAD. SOLG's assets are better than theirs and much more advanced.

As the RNS already points out..."encouraging mineralisation visible in holes 72, 73, and 74."

Indeed... just look at those images in figure 6.

Hole 70 was great. The cores on the rest look pretty consistent to me.

Can't say Dan isn't trying his best to 'tell everyone' before the assays come in. He can only say so much as under market reporting rules and has to be careful about 'predicting' and raising expectations...but nothing wrong with supplying very illuminating images that you can then build pretty good expectations on.

7.8m's depth on hole 70. Flippin heck... get the shovels out Dan and get it to market at an $4100oz!

Even those drill cores are worth smelting!

Looking great here... tailings looks a shoe-in too.

Just look on the images and note where these holes are targeting. All 4 holes look like they are going for the sweet spot on Pit1 and on Pit2.

These holes are not testing borders or perimeters for size eg for Pit Plan/footprint.

They are tesing for the high grade stuff.

I might be reading too much into it, but looks to me like they've deliberately saved these 4 holes to last. Makes sense as this really is about honing that sweet spot down in both pits.

Highly likely (IMHO) that the next RNS that drops in early November, will have the best holes, with the best grades.

There are some planned holes to follow on the new areas NW and West of the 2 pits, but these won't arrive in early Nov.

I think the next RNS on assays looks primed to blow the doors off. 4 best holes imho to come.

It was beautifully controlled. Almost as if someone wanted to make sure the TA had no gaps and was therefore nice and solid for further upward move keeping the 'traders' in for a bit longer than normal.

If it's Canaccord... then well done them as they have created a more solid base after seeing of some flaky traders in the 14's and 15's.

Global X were at 39m shares as of Friday close. I'll update on their position tomorrow but they certainly gobbled up those 10m shares or more at the right time.

Metal war brewing between China and US.

Scramble to secure precious metals before shortage kicks in.

Chinese well prepared but clearly looking to bank some more resources.

Agreed, but nothing goes up in straight line these days and markets are markets...

Personally I see today's news as bigger than the hole 58 news when that landed and we tested 17.9p.

Today's news confirms that BOTH targeted pits have higher grade shallow resources. Note... not just Pit 1 as per hole 58.

RSI much much lower this time around so there's plenty in the tank for the market to buy this up into the early 20's before it becomes overheated on TA basis.

By the time early November Assays drop, we might or should be in the 20's. Next leg up there gets us into high 20's or 30's. CIPA then drops and it's into the 40's.

Like I said at weekend, xmas is just 11 weeks off. So be patient... plenty coming to see this properly rerate and align with some of our peers.

We need 22p+ just to align with the smaller Ecuador miner Solaris lol!

They are drilling the North West targets which are still within TAM but a decent step out from the original plans. I'd go as far to say that they are 'new' so anything meaningful on those and yes... boom boom shaka boom time.

When you look at peers like Solaris Warintza which is also open pit, the market has already valued their asset pre PFS as seen by their £650m market cap.

TAM has potential to be pretty close to Solaris's asset in terms of resources ... but still early days and many more drills required before they can confirm full numbers.

Bottom line is... the current market cap barely accounts for TAM and regional folio (inc Porvenir) and leaves the Tier1 asset priced at zero lol!

Bonkers innit?

It certainly helps when you get a nice great drill holes across two Pits. Hole 58 was Pit 1 and based on today's results, I think they can confirm that the northern area of that Pit is the end point. So whilst grades low on those drills, it's job done as it's now defined the Pit boundaries to that side.

The surprise today is Pit 2. Who wudda funked it? We bag another sweet shallow spot on Pit 2.

The north west opportunities are being done due to some sweet rock chip samples/geo works ... they don't always hone in the sweet spot but certainly worth drilling. Tandy looking better and better.

I think we have two Pits there... could we have 3 and 4 ? Guess we'll find out soon.

With metal prices looking higher and higher, the economics on Tandy and subsequent cash flow I think likes of BHP and co now know SOLG can go it alone and that's going to upset them greatly. Someone will have to make a move soon as those buy back royalty stream deadlines are not far away now.

Brilliant news. Exactly what we needed... more high end grades but crucially at shallow depth. Hole 70 looking just as tandy dandy as hole 58.

7.8m depth... flippin heck guys... talk about low hanging fruit! And there's more and more of it.

This is beyond SOLG's wildest dreams. I don't think they thought they were going get such shallow finds as the driling some years ago didn't suggest that was on the cards.

This is commercial... and becoming very commercial nevermond the doibling up as taiings solution too!

Yes, saw that news. US to buy up $1bln in critical rare earth minerals. They did the same in August I think. I think they'll need 5 x that amount just to keep their tech bubble going.

China have the US by the short and curlies. Trump's way of doing business just doesn't wash with them. It's disrespectful. He'll need to change his tone fast if he's going to get anywhere with China. I see by latest reports he's already starting to unwind the 'tone' of his threat of 100% Tariffs. Back tracking already.

PoG is going to the moon while this man baby is in power... that's for sure. So another 3 years+ of precious metals doing very well indeed.

Hopefully we'll be producing from Tandy just when PoG breaks $6000oz. I suspect Copper will be $13k+ by then.

Agreed and I think the PFS by Darryl some moons ago would be the likely blueprint for any Super Major or Chinese State firm owner.

They wouldn't tinker around ... with blockcave, the numbers just keep on improving as the project scales up.

In the right hands, Alpala would likely be in top 3.

There comes a point in the future... especially with projected higher pm prices...where SOLG going it alone (like Friedland's Ivanhoe) makes more sense and stuff the super majors. We'll just become one of them instead! We'll need partners at some stage and even Friedland brought in Zijin on KK.

Not long for some hefty news releases now as Dan promised a wedge of news/progress before end of Q4. Believe it or not, we are just 11 weeks away from Christmas day.

Ho ho ho.

According to Global X update today, they bought another 1.5m shares yesterday. So that clearly helped.

If the seller is cleared and they do the same today, then I suspect we'll start to see some real sp movement. Certainly been held back by a seller as proven by the fact that Global X have bought a whopping 10m shares in last few weeks trading and the sp had barely moved from 15p level until yesterday finally gave way to some action.

Assays must be next week surely??

Franco think $6000oz by time SOLG are producing via block cave. The clock is ticking on that 50% royalty stream buyback.... at $6000oz... it's worth a fortune.

Franco must be keen to drop that extra $600m+ (subject to derisking/phasing of project etc etc) but I do wonder whether they'll be up for increasing it?? You never know... they might be up for financing the entire product via a stream deal... or certainly a chunk finance to allow early production at TAM perhaps?

Eish... tongues will be wagging. The mining industry is in major shake up mode. From sacked ceo's to new ceo's to mergers to buyouts etc etc. BHP's shareholders are not happy at the moment. Glencore look vulnerable. Majority of them are 'under resourced' when it comes to copper in particular. China meanwhile looks streets ahead. Not only have they stockpiled rare earths and banned them from being exported to RoW... they've been buying up Gold for years now.

While the US investors buy into the bubble of AI and tech firms, China buys into the materials required to make those firms tech ideas a reality.

Copper hasn't even moved yet compared to other metals. Silver if $50 today! It used to be $20.

So it's up to the majors... sit back and watch likes of SOLG derisk the asset further and watch the asking price double and double again.

I'm actually of the mind now that a 'development' phase with early TAM production is the way to go and any cheap offers sub 60p should be given the middle finger.

The stars have aligned for SOLG at last and the fund managers will have to get stuck in soon as their folios are hideously overvalued on balloon tech stocks when there are bucket loads of cheap stocks out there based on 'real' metals not dream up ideas.

Was BHP at the same luncheon? Ho Ho ho!

Seller cleared???

IMARC conference starts on 21st October and is in Sydney. There's nothing on (any conference of importance) in Melboure at the moment so curious why DV would be there. Even more curious is that he cancelled his presentation to the norwegians this week.

He's clocking up some air miles. And not cheap either. So would be good to know what warrants a trip to melbourne.