Member Info for Fortissimo

Cascabel very very important for Noboa. I'd go as far to say that he needs the project (inc TAM) producing revenues for Ecuador before next elections (Feb 2029). He needs to get the sector moving and we know has seen Glencore, Rio and Barrick recently.

i don't think anything has changed since dan's presentations to then mining world couple of weeks ago. one is present and the other (accounts) prepared months ago) so i would suspect that there's just some lag there with cipa being more current and perhaps why dan was citing imminent.

the ecuador gov look like they are flapping a bit and my guess is that they feel uneasy about the hand**** gina r legal case. hence they are suggesting they may target gina r (they haven't mentioned her company directly but that's clearly what the article ia about) with other methods to hamper their works and plans in ecuador. that's pretty dangerous stuff to say when you are trying to get your mining industry up off the ground. the likes of solaris, solg, lundin et al... all the ones with advanced large mining ops look the 'precious ones' regarded by ecuador gov as high priority and understandably so... you'd be utterly mad to try and play hard ball with any of them. they could just shut up shop and then you have no mining at all. so likes of solg and lundin et al will not be pressed too hard but the miners like gina r's outfit and dundee etc look to be the ones they are targeting.

the accounts would have been signed off weeks ago so think the cipa issue just a lag as stated above. nothing to worry about.

RodneyT, be careful what you wish for. How many options do you think will be coming CJ's way if he took over as CFO?? Seriously... the directors are just swapping seats and awarding themselves new options based on past remuneration rounds.

I wouldn't mind so much if the incumbent handed theirs back as they head out the door... but they don't... they just find a cosy seat in the tea room and kick back and enjoy the fruits of shareholders funds.

Thanks NMM... very forensic stuff mate!

I think with upcoming IPO/regionals spin out... it's probably more useful to have inhouse guidance on tap as opposed to outsourcing but M&A or IPO specialists will still need outsourcing imho so GC potential go-between.

As for James Clare... and accounts in general... ugly stuff as usual with SOLG as directors burn shareholder cash for their own benefit. Not great at all.

To seasoned investors, retraces and tests of the share price support is healthy providing the near term and mid term story remains bullish ... which is the case with SOLG.

So just watch and enjoy the show... the sp will find it's new base (the base it drifts around at with zero news). It was 6p tp 7p some months ago. Could be 14p/15p now. In few months new base might be 21p/25p range.

One step at a time. Only thing I would say and it's not meant as a major dig at all... but just a warning shot... 'missing self imposed deadlines' never a good thing so always wise to give yourself some 'room' and 'surprise' rather than 'miss' dates. Dan's dropped the ball a couple of times on 'guidance' and that's an old SOLG trait that many would like to see a thing of the past.

Looks a like 'buddy' for Dan as he's moving to London... or has moved.

Completely unnecessary role / position for a company of SOLG's size.

How much are we paying him? What exactly is he doing for us?

Context Grundles... context. You don't sum up sentiment or how well a company is doing based on a pullback on the sp or a quiet week. I know it can effect some and you see that in the posts that follow... bit like yours. The truth is.. the path forwards is not a straightline... but most are bullish and not many bearish on SOLG. That's a big change from 6 months ago.

I remember reading the BB on EEE.L when the sp tested 20p and then dropped back to 16p levels. Some negative posts... some traders citing sold up and happy to move on etc etc... then the sp bounce back to 20p and the excitement returned. Then it went to 30p... 40p... 50p... 60p... 70p...80p...

So do you think the trading in the 'teens' was really negative or a sign of weakness? The point is... our correct target price is around 45p to 55p based on where we are now and where peers are valued. Why we are not there has more to do with LSE poor liquidity and a weak base to build from eg recovering from 6p levels took some effort and a new shareholder base had formed there which were or are happy with their 120%+ profits. That's the pain caused by SOLG past management and failures... that's why it's a tough climb back. I suspect Dan and team now need to build as many newbies into the shareholder based at 14p or 15p or 16p or 17p levels. These investors are the ones that are looking forwards into the rerate or lassonde curve recovery. They might have 25p on profit targets or some will have 85p+ etc.

For now, it's just a case of the usual 'drift' on no news periods, dump some flaky traders off, build some sp support, add some ii's and funds (Global X fund keep adding 200k blocks almost daily now) and get ready for the next TAM Assays and newsflow. Hopefully the latter will see us break into the 20's.

There will be exciting times and there will be boring times. That's why I'm keen to see Dan get on with Porvenir... get on with the regionals. Get some more exploration drilling going as that adds the spark and attracts traders and investors.

Yes, the usual after hours printing by the dodgy mm's.

7,546,000 x 2 trades at 15.3p.

If we hear the short is closed then I suspect they'll be a few scratching their heads lol!

Highly likely that the unexpected Ecuador land tax has hindered the ExploreCo plans although I do think they can get on and do some further drill holes on Porvenir and move that to PEA status. Bit like drilling the portal hole... would show confidence in the story ahead. I doubt it would need more than $3m capex. Easily doable assuming they are NOT using the Jiangxi placing funds on anything ENSA related. That shouldn't really be the case as ENSA should be funded via the stream deal.

Bramaderos (Sunstone) 12.5% stake could be flogged and raise $14m+. More than enough to get the rigs turning on quite a few of the regionals. Far easier to gain a tastey IPO price on ExploreCo if you have a few decent high grade holes on a few licence blocks.

I think the expectation of

1. TAM results and model (early economic views)

2. CIPA and permit deliveries (community move etc)

3. Updated PFS (higher metal prices and poss inc TAM)

4. Continued TAM drilling through into 2026

5. Portal hole commencement cited Nov 25 subject to CIPA I believe

That's more than enough to 'update' the bigger picture ahead of the DFS. The latter can't be done until the above is sorted. And there's quite a few other pointers that need sorting before then too.

The Portal hole is significant as it commences the official development phase. On that basis... we would be stepping up the Lassonde curve and perhaps that's Dan's intention. Serious SP growth kicks in once you start scaling that curve. We've been bottom scratching the curve base for last 2 years going no where fast. Time to 'execute' and move fast to DFS. That's only 9 months out. Christmas will be here before you know it. Time flys by.

Chatgpt et al are pretty useless when it comes to analysis on equities/stocks as the general coverage which is used lacks key details. The reason for that is that those key details are behind paywalls, behind client only broker notes. The market 'sells' it's inside views and by the time they are public to chatgpt et al, it's old news ... out of date and irrelevant.

As for Solaris Resources, the reason I place so much emphasis on it rigt now is that it is the closest listed company we have that we can benchmark against for reactions and markets views on an Ecuador Mine that is not in chinese or a major miners hands etc.

Solaris are due (within a week to 11 weeks) to issue their PFS. Along with that, a number of other news worthy events. I don't hold stock in Solaris... so I'm only flagging it up as a benchmark and 'insight' tool to how the market reacts etc.

It's going to be very interesting to see their PFS. Insights on how they plan to fund it.

And I'm not the only one 'watching' Solaris closely... it would appear SOLG are following the too.

Note any similar pathways below??

1. Solaris announce non core spin out plans (that was in 2021)

2. Solaris announce move to Swiss domicile (that was in 2024 and in place Jan 1st 2025)

Point 2 was cited to be driven by a company-wide decision to "emigrate" from Canada due to a national security review following China's Zijin Mining's investment plans. Mmm! And here we are handing Jiangxi 5% cheap shares on a plate, allowing them on the ground access and gaining technical insight from them on what they think ... mmm... or what they want!

In my opinion, we are simply ticking off the boxes that the chinese want ticked. The portal hole is a classic example. Incidentally, it is due to complete around end of H1 or start of H2.... and guess what... that's when the DFS is cited to land.

If a bid or JV deal followed in August/September... I wouldn't raise an eyebrow. I wouldn't raise an eyebrow if the regionals were spun out around late H1 either lol!

Time to just sit and watch. There's always a disruptor in these kind of sort after assets. So going to be interesting to see how the sector unfolds after the AngloTEK merger. Who's next and what are the knock on effects? Exciting times for investors focused on metals and mining.

Not sure about Solaris being smoother... they told the market they were doing a non core asset spin out in 2021. 4 years later... they still haven't done it. In terms of their Warintza asset, they have been slow and market still awaits their PFS which was promised for Q3 2025. All in all... I don't see Solaris delivering that much more than SOLG in terms of management accumen/news delivery. Their stream deal is also smaller and broader finance unknown. In short... they are behind SOLG and have an inferior asset... so if market hands them a £750m market cap, then it's hard to understand why the market cannot value SOLG in the 30's and 40's which would be equivalent basis right now.

I think it has alot to do with LSE vs TSX and whilst the latter isn't quite as frothy as ASX... LSE is without a doubt becoming a mothball index. No one wants to list on London exchange anymore .. it's shocking to see the demise of what was once the greatest exchange in the world. We need a dual listing on ASX pronto.

The Anglo TEK merger has already got the M&A machine moving across the mining sector. That's massive. Throw in the recent Freeport copper woes and you've got some serious momentum in metal prices and mining sector as a whole.

I think Glencore will be the next ones to get snapped up unless they merge of buy someone else. Incidentally... Glencore were one of the miners meeting Noboa recently in Ecuador.

Alexandra1, some points fair and others I wouldn't agree with but here's one for you... can you tell me why Solaris Resources is valued by the market at £750m based on where they are with their Ecuador asset vs where SOLG are. They are behind us... yet priced almost 50% higher but for an inferior asset.

Explain that one and factor into your SOLG analysis.

SOLG are not massively heavy on retail investors as almost 60% is owned by insiders, large miners or II's and funds. 40% at best is in retail hands. That's not large.

It's a sign of confidence in the project that Dan is commencing the portal works 6 months ahead of the DFS. He's basically saying... were bullish, we are spending the money on it and that's great news. That all said, I do think we are ticking off the boxes for Jiangxi myself ahead of a bid. And they have likely asked for the portal to be started so results from that are known well ahead of the first stream deal deadline (buy back 50% clause) which I think is in November 2026 and the larger one ($750m) is Mid 2027. But that's just my view. Jiangxi didn't move to 12.2% for fun and as we all know there is a copper war around the corner and the chinese tend to be ahead of the US and globe in general. The US have big problems now Freeport are struggling. And Trumps copper tariffs are now backfiring so he'll need to do a u-turn on that one which will further bolster copper.

There's alot to do to compute TAM into the development plans so mid 2026 is roughly where they should be for DFS although that does align with when the portal works are set to complete... so I suspect the two are linked which further supports my theory (for myself re Jiangxi).

Interesting comment on the 'streams'. Clearly plural. So tranche 3 see's us through to Q2/Q3 of 2026 and then we unlock what?? the other $650m or a portion of it? I always thought that a decision to develop/DFS and the $650m stream would be dependent on having the others finance in place too??? Interesting... that would leave around 8 months to sort the copper stream and other finance. Quite ambitious.

Now testing $8.4cad.

£745m market cap.

The market loves their Ecuador asset. Just need them to love ours on same merits. Do that and we are 40p a share levels.... until we derisk further.

Crazy to think Alpala is valued at such a discount compared to Warintza.

It would not surprise me one bit if the $750m stream deal was upgraded to $1bln or even more post the revised PFS. Feasible to see $300m+ fed back via TAM in year 2 or 3 meaning a large proportion covered off. If total capex inc TAM rises to $2bln, then that's just $700m to come via copper stream and poss bank finance. In theory, if PoG is around $4000oz or even $5000oz, then cash flows from shallow high grades on TAM in year 1 could reduce equity finance exposure to zero. Banks usually like shareholders to bare some skin in the game but if you are a producer... then that changes everything. If PoG was around $1300oz, I'd say TAM would be a struggle to justify the efforts, but being 2.5 or even 3 x that level changes everything including the lower grades. Question is... does 'significantly' higher metal prices drop the cut off grade on the blockcave a smidge too???? A minor 0.01% adjustment can make very significant changes to reserves if economical.

Https://investinglive.com/commodities/copper-prices-jump-after-freeport-details-mudrush-incident-impact-could-stretch-to-2027-20250924/

Blimey... 2027... and just think Trumps tariffs are gonna hurt him now his homeland player is in trouble. Lets hope the supply chain ignores the US and ups the price to Trump eg slaps a US surcharge on the stuff lol! See how he likes that.

I think Dan was targeting Q4 (prob end of) for updated PFS using more current metal prices and including TAM albeit early modelling.

My guess is that cash burn and run of capex is front ended on tranche 2 so works required for tranche 3 (not as precise as original doc etc) may well require all outline above sorted and then tranche 3 arrives Q1 2026.

The point is, the project timeframes have stepped up and we are in 'execution' mode now. This also means other things coming forwards that were not budgeted in the original stream docs. I think even the PEP agreement has changed a bit since it was pen'd as G-mining now doing much more work on a number of areas in tandem.

Just a hunch but I think TAM is more than a goer. It's attractive even with low grades (sub 0.3%) with PoG near $4000oz.

Now up over 4%!

Dan... hold off on that Copper stream deal!