Member Info for Forensic505

Well the two RNSs at least explain this now: two major institutions have sold out pretty heavily. One looks to be Australian (Perpetual) so they probably know the company well locally....

Strap yourselves in lads ! :-)

Seems to me that MW and BUR have made their main points now so would think this will start to trend to a fairer value. It was clearly oversold in the immediate panic. Peel Hunt (who deserve respect and I believe are independent of BUR) have a Buy target up to £11+. But this company is very hard to accurately value of course. My own feeling is this will now slowly move above £9 and then challenge £10 in the not too distant future. DYOR of course and best of luck.

Peel Hunt have initiated coverage with Buy and tp 1169p

They have a very solid analyst

Not finished it all yet but this looks excellent. Very deep disclosure.

Motely Fool used to be very insightful. But that was 15 years ago....The recent article had no logic or evidence to support their "eye-catching" headline. Maybe they missed the boat last week and are pushing for a lower entry price.

Fair point. More by luck than judgment I had sold at 1842p. Now I have finally come back in as I think the eye of the storm has passed.

Valhalla - hadnt seen that. That is important. Thank you. I think the accusation was always over the way BUR was applying the policy (CFO conflict governance issue) not the policy itself. I think BUR have now addressed those issues. IMHO MW were right to raise them but they have been well addressed.

Very pleasing to see this recovering. Burford is a major player in the sector and the sector is a force for good.

This company could do with Brexit being resolved one way or another. Marketing and Finance Directors probably stalling marketing spend until then.

Some concerns (own broker sounded bit disappointed on call re deployment level):
1. In appendix to presentation pack: looks like only 3 or 4 cases contributed to the whole year. Lack of detail in presentation materials on size of cases. Therefore very lumpy.
2. Overheads very high. This was expected but CEO Aus$1.7m remuneration and Vice Chairman £600,000.
3. Need to focus on their undeniable strengths: major cases in Asia (great opportunity and well placed) and obvs Aus. Market likely wont have appetite for a new Burford. Focus rather than attempt all things to all men.
4. CEO strong hint on call that will tap markets for more funding (they have commitments of $394m but cash only $49m) but looking at fund as well.
5. Slightly opaque rev recognition - are they counting judgment award before cash received ? They refer to "probable" a lot? Dunno
6. Vice Chair did not answer good question on track record of his old team at Chantry Capital who joined LCM. Maybe ran out of time but fair quesion

As ever dyor

Peel Hunt on Bloomberg: Manolete Partners# (Add from Hold, TP 450p) - Financially healthy, recommendation upgrade
Manolete Partners is in excellent financial health, with net cash (nil borowings) of probably £7.5m today, and has a completely different profile to other litigation funders. Its returns are much higher than others in the industry, it has a strong cash collection record, case duration is typically short – currently less than one year – it is in much greater control of its cases, it has a wide network of partners that bring repeat business, and it has more visibility on its growth than others as regional teams are built out. Following recent share price weakness we upgrade to Add from Hold, TP 450p.

Arden, also today, reiterate Buy. TP: 590p

TaffyJack: LIT looks like they carry at cost, but cost includes at least some of their own overheads applied to case values. So comparison and policies not simple to compare. No matter what the policy, the real position emerges once these cases complete of course.

TaffyJack: fair question but their cases are completed on avg within 12 months so if they ever over-estimated (intentionally or not) the truth would soon damage their numbers.I dont see any material write offs. Funders whose cases last several years have far greater scope to kick can down the road. Mano vintages all completed up to 2016 and there we only 5 cases left live in 2017. Contrast that to BUR where the 2011, 2012 and 2013 vintages are all still open...