Member Info for Forensic505

Good shout.

Inflation better than expectations today has helped.

Is Laura still in at 8.8p or did she get out when it momentarily hit 14p?

Typo:

“IPO at 175p…”

Everyday sees new headlines of: (1) banks getting much tougher on business debt recovery; (2) after years of “softly, softly” HMRC is now taking a much harder approach on unpaid taxes (because the Treasury is desperate for the cash of course) and (3) really big insolvency fraud claims emerging (reference First Brands car parts and Tricolour car finance.

These factors should now absolutely turbo-charge Manolete. Which, itself, is a very well run enterprise. Look at the quality of their people: judges, very senior solicitors and chartered accountants. Highly impressive.

Post the firestorm of Covid (which led to the UK Government banning UK insolvencies for two years and flooding the UK corporate world with £0.7 trillion of free Covid support cash), the final thing missing from the full recovery story for Manolete has been the UK Insolvency market returning back to its normal mix of bigger (as well as their recently reported record numbers of small and mid size) cases.

I am fully expecting the now imminent interim results announcement for 6 months to 30 September 2025 to show a return of these much larger claims.

Given the very fixed operational structure of the Manolete operational cost base, these big claims will have an IMMEDIATE and very materially positive impact on the Manolete’s bottom line profits because these new cases need to be marked to value as soon as they are signed up. That is crucial for investors to understand.

Manolete then has a very impressive and consistent 16 year track record covering over 1,600 cases, of settling these within a year.

And the bigger cases pay up in cash, post settlement, very quickly indeed. Because the claims are against bigger (deep pocket entities). A great example is the very recent truck cartel settlement announced on 21 July 2025. As the RNS of that date stated: all £3.2m cash from that case is received in just 10 days. And that 100% Manolete’s retained cash. The gross settlement isn’t disclosed but will have obviously been larger than the £3.2m Manolete share. Outstanding.

The shares are ridiculously over-sold as everyone has forgotten about them after the pummelling they took over the Covid period.

They did their IPI at 175p. They hit 600p several times pre-Covid. They are currently 85-90p. Not for very much longer, I suspect. According to their usual announcement calendar, Interim trading result update should be issued anytime between now and the end of October.

This should be a really very interesting time for this company. As ever, DYOR and GLA.

CEO lost the plot when they let him escape from his pram, sucking on a 5kg sugar loaded gobstopper called “unrealised profit accounting”.

He knew those moronic analysts would multiply his out of control, “spray and pray” cash investments by 2-3x “historic” (lol) money multiples to forecast Disney Land future profits.

And that was after the complete Aussie toolbag had acted “mighty than though for doing cash accounting” for years gone by….

And so many on here lapped it and clapped it up.

They’ve all lost truck loads.

Don’t blame Pat the T*at

Look in the mirror ladies and gents. Hook line and sinker.

The moment I saw him appear with the lunatic in the wig and sunglasses, I knew we were watching “The Joker”.

The delay of the AGM is a lie.

Plain and simply.

As someone smart said here not so long ago - what do you need a “strategic review” for anyway….the situation the company is in is very clear.

The options:

1) run it off for the benefit of public shareholders.

Or

2) de-list and run it off straight into your own mouth

What would you do?

Who’s gonna stop you?

Support?

From who?….

The last thing they’ll want nor need is shareholder acquiescence. The clue to a “pre-pack” is in the name. They stitch it up before they announce that it has happened. Done and dusted. Finito.

You can wail all you want then. No one will be listening. As the shares get quickly and quietly de-listed and swept into the regulatory trash can.

Given the big money that the Chairman of LIT has put in. Right up to 100p++ levels. My cynical view of all things finance and law suggests that the temptation to “steal it off the public markets now” (just like Anexo did) must be weighing heavy on the directors’ “duty to act in shareholder’s best interests”….The corporate advisors will only and solely be looking to pick up a transaction fee.

A pre-packaged Administration (see Pizza Hut yesterday) would be the most obvious, well trodden but also most the most devastating for private investors.

Last rites methinks…

Same applies to their year end (31 March), they always release a Trading Update within 30 days of the year end as well.

Looking back on previous years, MANO always do a detailed Trading Update for the first half of the year sometime between now and the end of October.

Thanks Trouts.

Much appreciated.

New to this “yield” investing strategy.

I think LNG does interim and final dividend.

How close to the relevant period end does the share price start to get “pregnant” with the expected dividend please?

Any guidance, much appreciated.

@HHReturns: lol

Thank you

Ya see guys.

Even being granted permission to appeal is tough. And even then, appeals are very tough to win.

Therefore: 100% of costs and fair value should be written off when lost at first instance. Keeping 60% of costs is simply not prudent accounting in such circumstances.

Another concern with a company in this position is the possibly of the board deciding to de-list. Or take private at a low ball level. Leaving listed shareholders with a meaningless and worthless stake in an unlisted company. I forget the name but this happened very recently with a vehicle accident litigation company, Annexo, or something similar.

Shareholders got completely shafted and the Takeover Panel did nothing to stop the abuse. Pretty outrageous in my view.

The Australian Chairman of LCM is apparently wealthy but is also a big shareholder here. So he might engineer something similar in an effort to recoup his paper losses.

This is pure speculation but there is recent precedent. I wouldn’t put it past the Chairman and CEO to cook up something similar.

I stress: pure speculation on my part.

@neuronaut. Yup - 100% on the same page. The market price is about right but…..with the recent track record this is just way too toxic to hold out for a miracle.

@HHReturns: read and learn.

Came in at 9p

Out today at 11.5p

Why the exit now:?

I rewatched mgmt video this morning.

Spotted a flaw: on lost judgments, where they are appealing, they have only written off 40% of the costs. Implying 60% expectation that they can overturn the original judgement (at first instance).

However, much later the CFO says (in relation to GreenX): “all stats show there is a low single digit chance of Poland overturning our winning judgment…”

Obviously both cannot be right. The second statement is the true statement and therefore they should have written basically ALL the costs off the 6 recent losing cases. That will be a VERY big number.

Maybe I have misunderstood something here, but I don’t think I have.

The management presentation yesterday was very good. Very transparent,

Clearly the CEO had sadly lost credibility but with credit to him, he didn’t try to dodge the questions at all.

The CFO was key for my assessment. All of the recent big lost cases, which has caused the huge problem here, were all very old Australian cases. All signed long before the CFO recently arrived. Therefore he was at pains to show he had taken an extremely cautious view on the entire book of open cases. He explained very clearly that book of ongoing cases is priced at just 1.3x cost. Furthermore the GreenX case is the only one in the live portfolio that is marked over 1.0x. But GreenX is a nailed on winner. Even the Polish Prime Minister said “we have to pay up”.

So the CFO’s absolute kitchen sink NAV per share is 25p. His words. Not mine. Watch the video. Then take your own view. For me, the risk is all upside. The losses are fully accounted for. Just a couple of wins and his bargain base case NAV of 25p ratchets very quickly higher.

I think this is fabulous opportunity for PIs but please DYOR of course.

Crikey….the buy orders are piling in big time now!!