Member Info for foodforthought

Comments?

http://www.bayancenter.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/8976657898.pdf

But you can`t knock it for paying a 5-6% divi, which is what you are indeed doing...The point, well made by hydrogen, is that we`d be at this price anyway -But now we are `at this price` but being paid to hold the shares...You seem to infer it might be at c207 if they didn`t pay the divi...as if paying a div is a negative- which it it clearly isn`t......it is just bollocks.

To be fair though nothing has worked here...Apart from the Miran write down and a further delay to Bina Bawi we`ve had nothing but good news for 5-6 months...Strong free cash generation, Chevron tie up...loads of drills, increasing production, dividend, Bill Higgs taking over..

But it`s what happens when folk sell- for what ever their reason- sp goes down. Not a great deal anyone can do about it..It`s cheap as chips- eventually value will come out- but it might take a while.

`Manipulated` is just another way of saying someone is selling the shares...Shorted or sold it makes the same difference and we end up down here.

Anyway we`ll see. Last time I had these sort of conversations it became very clear that an ii was selling and there were. You guys just never believe it.

We might be pleased that the Co is being `conservative and sensible` and isn`t hocked to the eyeballs. Instead it is coining it in.

What`s not to like about that?

Leem1,

Earlier in the year we had 5 or 6 pieces if good news - everything from the Chevron stuff to ops updates and reserve upgrades- the sp skipped along around the 200-205 for weeks then went down from c200s to c180...If someone is selling, as now, then it doesn`t matter what the news is, short of a spectacular TO, the sp won`t go up- It needs buyers.

So show a little understanding, patience and hold off from slagging off the Co for stuff they can`t control- like folk selling.

There`s more than 3 years left of the RSA!!

It`s very simple IMO- some ii is selling and selling into any strength.... It won`t last forever.

That`s how I see it- One day some institutional investor is going to start buying...we don`t know when- And it might be while- in the mean time there isn`t, as far as we are aware anything `wrong` that causes that kind of disconnect. We know the negatives, and there are some- perhaps weighing heavily is the lack of any resolution to a deal at Bina Bawi...But that could happen at any time

In the mean time FCF and divis keep rolling in.

Leem1 take a look at the RSA RNS- It`s worth reminding why and how much Genel is coining it from Tawke (And Peshkabir)

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/genel-energy-GENL/share-news/Genel-Energy-PLC-Definitive-receivables-agreement/75509534

Worth noting perhaps, if GENL had the same valuation as HUR today- The sp would be £4.17p..

Still a hell of a discount for a Co with production @ c38k bopd....HUR 0 (OK OK say 17k bopd)
Genel-Net debt zero, cash rich with a c6% divi...Making $12-15m per month in FCF...

Why do you keep asking the same question?

It keeps falling because someone is selling- It`s very simple- Not what we want etc and you`d be better off asking the seller `why`?

There are loads of reasons:
taking a Profit
World Economics
Geopolitics..
Lack of trust in the area.

I`m not saying its not a `hold` or a buy, just whats happening...

We know it can turn on a sixpence and often does.

Note how more recently the sp doesn`t react to increasing PoO only decreasing PoO.

It ain`t a tree shake- This has been concerted selling from c215p a few days ago...Some ii is offloading. At some point it`ll become cheap and hopefully a ii will start buying or buy more than the seller is offering and it`ll go up.

c6.5% return at 180p

Leem1,

looking forward to seeing your questions answered by Higgs early next month. i take it you have emailed the Co with your questions, yes?

tweet from Genel today:

As we are approaching the end of the month, if there are any questions that you would like answered by Genel management, please send them to investor.relations@genelenergy.com, and we will post them here - https://www.genelenergy.com/investor-relations/shareholder-qa/ ….

1. Boris `fuck business` Johnson is a lazy liar, who `bats` for one man, himself.
2. Assuming you can get `no deal` through Parliament which is just as unlikely as it is today- Parliament doesn`t want it...- What`s the plan after The UK`s left with `no deal`, economy and infrastructure going one way, EU saying we want our our £39bn etc etc..Before any negotiation begins, EU then holds *ALL* the cards. It doesn`t end it goes on and on and on...For years, except in a more febrile atmosphere.
3. FTAs with other Countries will never be as good as we have now through the EU. They will also take years, literally a decade or more to sort out.
4. In the mean time farmers, agri food industries, SME all hit as they become uncompetitive with near trading neighbours due tariffs. Smooth regulation free trading becomes unsmooth and complicated which adds cost thus adds to uncompetitiveness...
5. What exactly is the point? A sound bite? `We`ve got our Country back`...Really? Economically poorer, The UK`s given up control and given up being leading voice in the biggest trading bloc- And for what? Absolutely nothing but a soundbite.

Its madness.

As I said I reckon this could be one reason- Trump:

Is the United States heading for war with Iran?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48298517

Tweets:

This also from To add on to this excellent thread: in 33 years of USG service, I don’t recall an ordered departure before for what appears to be signaling purposes. Threats in Iraq are continuous, but we didn’t draw down in 2014-15. Why now?Barbara A. Leaf added,

McGurk:
In sum: this is the first ordered departure for Baghdad/Erbil and that alone is significant with likely second and third order effects in Iraq and the region. The big question now is where this leads. Trump again said he expects Iran to call him. They won't. So then what?

IMO this has a little to do with Trump threatening war with Iran..or throwing `oil on the road`, trying to cause some `car crashes` in Iran/Iraq so he can send in his tow trucks to fix things- His weird MO-...There appears to be a US call to `get out` of Iraq because of the pesky Iranians- So its spooked a few in the area. considering they didn`t go in `14/15 when ISIS was running amok I can`t quite understand the panic...Which is basically what the allies and Brits are saying- errr What`s the problem??....But I think the uncertainty has spooked the market a tad...Interesting to see some of the quotes from more sensible people.

This from Oil report:
Iraqi oil industry calm amidst U.S. warnings on Iran
As the U.S. evacuates diplomatic personnel, citing threats from Iran, Iraq's oil sector and its IOC partners maintain status quo.BAGHDAD - Iraq's oil operations remain stable in the face of rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, despite the U.S. State Department's decision Wednesday to remove non-emergency personnel from Iraq.

According to a broad range of industry and government officials -- including international oil company executives, leaders of Iraq's state-run oil companies, Iraqi military and intelligence officers, and western diplomats -- there has been little reason to change their security assessment around the country's key oil infrastructure, and business is proceeding as usual.

09 May 2019

NOTIFICATION AND PUBLIC DISCLOSURE OF A TRANSACTION BY A PERSON DISCHARGING MANAGERIAL RESPONSIBILITIES AND A PERSON CLOSELY ASSOCIATED TO A PERSON DISCHARGING MANAGERIAL RESPONSIBILITIES

On 8 May 2019, Bill Higgs notified the Company that he had purchased 16,048 Ordinary Shares in Genel Energy plc at a price of £2.117771 per share and 19,424 Ordinary Shares in Genel Energy plc at a price of £2.1107 per share.
Bill Higgs also notified the Company that Jack William Alexander Higgs had purchased 2,357 Ordinary Shares in Genel Energy plc at a price of £2.1207 per share. Jack William Alexander Higgs is a person closely associated with Bill Higgs, CEO of Genel Energy PLC.
The notification below made in accordance with the requirements of the EU Market Abuse Regulation provides further detail.

https://www.genelenergy.com/investor-relations/shareholder-qa/