Member Info for fogthemogg

Their short is probably just institutional hedging.

Crazy that people are arguing as FRES continually makes new all-time highs.

"Global oil demand will rise by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, supported by solid economic growth, OPEC said in its monthly report on Thursday, "

That translates to less than 1% demand growth, does that sound ultra bullish for prices to you?

Meanwhile, OPEC have pivoted and abandoned production cuts, whilst non-OPEC producers like the US and Brazil keep setting new production records.

Some financial markets are incredibly complicated, but the oil market isn't...

Also Flavius, the supply glut "narrative" isn't new either, you're way behind on this. It became evident that $100+ Brent was transitory in late 2022 and that prices were heading much lower, as throughout 2023 Saudi went ahead alone with production cuts. They knew what was coming.

"All of this cries an OP explosion which is waiting just for a detonator. I would be really surprised if the oil price was not in the three-digit in the next 12 to 18 months, and I've not missed much such forecasts in the past."

All of your forecasts, both Tullow and the oil price, have been dire over the last few years 😆

You can't even get the basics right on demand and supply amongst all that waffle.

2025 is set to be yet another new record year for oil production, yet demand is only ~5% higher than it was in the years before Covid.

We've been in an oil supply glut for a long time but no one wanted to listen.

"Only "truth" here is that OP is kept depressed via a concerted media "glut narrative" in spite of physical indicators that cry shortage, not oversupply."

Flavius, you've comically got it the wrong way round...The oil shortage/tight supply/chronic underinvestment blah blah narrative was peddled by OPEC, no serious or respected oil and gas investors were of that view. The hard data has been screaming oversupply for a long, long time. Non-OPEC countries are throwing the kitchen sink at production, whilst demand remains tepid.

This is why oil and oilers have been heavily shorted for donkeys, the sector has been in a bear market since autumn 2022. But the occasional Middle East flare-up, or OPEC cuts in 2023-24, drove very short-term spikes which were sold into and shorted by smart money.

Posters all over these boards have been regurgitating the tripe on oilprice.com, ZeroHedge etc. and have been led down the garden path that oil is about to go parabolic any day now, so hurry hurry we must all rush into oilers!

You've been played son, best to stick to index funds.

Charts told the numpties that Tullow was "a gift" at 50p, 40p, 30p, 20p, 10p...

Bugsy, you need to call 911 about your Tullow position.

Bluemoon used to talk about shorts being trapped with no way out at 40p...

Spread all over the place as per usual

Stop hunting algos are taking people out at 6.70/6.80 but as of this minute, I've gotta pay 7.30 to buy 😆

This is the same Samuel Dossou-Aworet holds a 7% stake in Tullow. He is a very powerful west African oil investor with strong political connections in Ghana - he is not someone who is going to be OK with bondholders hurting Tullow shareholders and he has the political clout where it counts."

This is the same genius who has been a shareholder since 2004 (130p then), upped his stake to 17% in June 2023 (around 30p then) but hasn't bought any since...

As they say, there's always someone in the world worse off than you 😆

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/06/27/african-oil-veteran-adds-to-tullow-stake/

I think Steve Witkoff's activities might warrant an inquiry...

A real estate guy with zero diplomatic experience or relevant credentials, apart from being a buddy of Trump. He's visited Russia 6 times this year alone, achieved precisely zero and caught on video coaching Russians on how to negotiate with/play Trump.

What is he really up to?

Marcel, this might help.

https://www.gambleaware.org/

"There is still no sign of insiders or IIs buying or even RGfor that matter."

Considering how disastrous the insider buys worked out, maybe that's a good sign? 🤭

"3.6p on Tuesday looking like a gift right now"

I remember when you, Bugsy and the others from the funny farm said 20p was a gift 😆

"I cannot see any benefit to buy backs."

Have you ever had the pleasure of meeting longtimeinvestor? I think you two would really hit it off.

"Guys chill does it matter who bought and who sold and for hold much. "

Well that is kind of the point of gambling, ahem, I mean investing of course.

Maverick only needs 5x from here to breakeven, Anton on the other hand...10x?

"MaverickD

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 16,617

RE: $71 oil, v good for tullow14 Jul 2025 08:54

I’m long oil and long TLW"

At 20p 🤭

"Ticking up…….I’ll be happier once we are above 4.3p. I did call a blue day in the morning……."

Every single call you've made on Tullow over the years has been absolute hogwash.

I suspect you ran out of money long ago and are now just tinkering around in your demo account playing Gordon Gekko.