Tunisia and Nigeria very soon31 Dec 2020 11:41
First, although it is reassuring to think that posts that have no informative value are being scrutinised and removed on the odd occasion, it is tremendously worrying when I have a notification at the top of my page showing 10 new posts and only three are shown. Great to have a level playing field, but extremely dangerous if the board is discriminatory. I think we all should be aware of this.
SomersetHippy - as much as would like to big myself up and think I was of help to bring you aboard, it was probably more informed LT holding posters like MG. I also bought in at a very low price when everyone was screaming at me "how can you buy into a stock that has a spread of 35%". To me a 35% spread was meaningless in terms of the vision I had as to where the company was heading. I tried to evaluate the price range AAOG had experienced, estimated the value of Zenith before the Tilapia deal, took away potential value Azerbaijan may have added to Zenith before it became a liability. Took away the devaluation from two placings and was left with what i saw as a brand new company with the potential to fulfil what was expected from AAOG.
The three main chances of success, Tunisia, Nigeria and Congo were all imv opportunities of high proportion. I could see that any one of these could increase the the share price to 1.5p at any time and was happy to hold on that basis. Things changed slightly when I found out two other companies had entered bids for Tilapia over and above the already seven companies Zenith were up against. More to the point these were pretty big companies and had important connections with the Nigerian President for instance. This undoubtedly changed the percentage chances of success for receiving the Tilapia licence and changed my perception of how far this could go. I re-evaluated on the basis of Tilapia reduced from 75% chance to 35% chance of success and the other two at 80 to 90%. I thought Tilapia was the last in line for a result, so I was happy to hold.
We now have Tilapia and as much as I would like to stay with my feet on the ground, I cannot see this staying too long below 5p. There may well be detractors from this view and I know full well where this brings our capitalisation, but I cannot avoid the fact that this is not like drilling a wildcat. This is a an already drilled and successful well that is now pumping 30 barrels a day, and we are not looking at just one well, we are looking at 3, 4 or 5 appraisal wells over the next 18 months. Can you imagine 5 wells all pumping 5000 BOE per day, I'll let you work it out for yourselves. I am in my view being extremely conservative at 5p. With all the other projects up and running and just one of the appraisal wells completed, my estimation this time next year would be between 15 and 25p. GL DYOR HNY