Member Info for Florida

Another big question mark removed.

This could be an incredible week for us all. The result of the Rob- 1 workover is critical in obtaining the Tunisian Ministry approval before the 31st October. That is the date both KUFPEC and CNPC's extended agreement expires and we could be in difficult territory trying to extend it further. However, I see no reason to be concerned. Although the timescale is cutting it fine, they seem to have thrown the kitchen sink in at getting this successfully completed. It seems that they have renewed virtually everything and taken an immense amount of time doing it. The downtime at 20 bpd or $80,000 over very nearly 50 days is of course a cost to consider. However, this will pale into insignificance when we gain approval and receive the $10m owing.

Perfect storm and the wind is blowing our way. Can't grumble at the news, timed perfectly too, just as some were getting the jitters.

I thought blatant and deliberate lying was not allowed on these threads. Maybe some of our posters should be reported and removed.

FV - something to think about. If Masseria Vincelli 2 side-track was successfully drilled before 2021, then the whole Italian operation were sold off. A going concern with an operating profit of 8.5m, what would that be worth?

AGEOS - thanks for that, very informative. I asked because I came across an article that stated ESP's are extremely effective where low production and low pressure is the fundamental problem, which I think is what we have. However, I think you are right, they have already set out their stall and may have already opted for an enhanced nodding beam pump
of a sort, not to mention the cost of getting these ESP thingies down the hole. Anyway, all looking good no matter which way they chose, maybe news tomorrow.

AGEOS - I'm assuming Rob- 1 is presently pumped by a ''Nodding donkey'' or Beam pump configuration. Is Rob- 1 suitable to support the introduction of an ESP (Electrically Submerged Pump)?. If so, could this enhance production to the levels previously produced in Rob - 3?

If I remember correctly, the deal of interest was a 2000 BOE per day joint venture. However, I think this was directed towards the meyer region or some name like that, to the north of Africa not Congo.

Three of the last four trades I know for sure are buys.

Lots of buys showing as sells.

What we are waiting for -

Results of Rob-1 workover.

Approval from the Tunisian ministry.

Tilapia Licence ratification through parliament.

Noble Hill exclusivity deal signed and sealed.

Welcome on board Bear666 - you may have picked the magic moment to join us. As far as I am aware a hint was given in the recent final results. He disclosed that the Ministry of Hydrocarbons had already approved the Tilapia licence and all we were waiting for now was the ratification through parliament. We were in fact waiting for the dismissal of an obstacle in the Ministry, it seems we got both, the dismissal and the approval at the same time. AC has spoken to the President on a number of occasions who's opinion seems to be favourable towards us getting the licence. From this I can only conclude that with an 80% Government majority, getting the licence looks like a mere formality. I'm not sure if you are familiar with our CEO's antics, he regularly nips a crafty RNS in, that is far better than the one we were waiting for. He's done it so many times now I'm beginning to think he really is Father Xmas.

In that case I apologise for assuming your assumption was negative. Great having us all on the same page, singing the same tune. onwards and upwards. Into the valley of death rode the six hundred.

First, I must say the BCRA upgrade is not what I was hoping for. Not complaining, just a little disappointed in the view that structural and financial changes that have happened since the departure from Azerbaijan have been transformational to say the least. If they thought the financial situation was stable back in 2019, which was the result of their assessment at that time, how on earth can they assess this 2021 assessment so closely related to 2019. forgive me if I'm wrong but as of 31st March 2020 we were in profit of £2m. Since then we have acquired a number of oil producing concessions, one of which has just poked $4.5m into our coffers. I appreciate potentials cannot be included, however, having said that Congo is a potential and that was mentioned. If Tunisia is not taken into consideration then how can you include Congo. All very confusing. I'm sure AC must be furious, as am I. FV - thanks for the update.

AGEOS - your appraisal of the Nigerian acquisition has been extremely helpful and does put most of that situation into context. However, I cannot agree with your result. You have based your conclusion on what should be a quite common misconception. The example goes - your sitting at roulette wheel and you have just laid £10 on black six times and have lost sixty pounds. Working on the assumption that the chances of seven blacks in a row is unlikely, you put all your money on red. This is a common mistake, the fact is each spin of the wheel is a completely separate entity, totally unconnected to previous events. This gives the next spin of the wheel a 50- 50 chance, just as it did with all prior spins.

You assume that chances are slim for a positive outcome to the exclusivity deal, based upon his prior withdrawals. This, imv is flawed on the basis I have described. We should, in fact be looking more at, first, the situation of the company when he made those decisions. Second, at the man and his thoughts now compared to then. He struck me both in his Conference call and his recent RNS regarding Nigeria, as a man in a far stronger negotiating position than he was in 2019, extremely enthusiastic about the deals potential and eager to get on with it. I am looking through the clear part of my rose tinted bifocals at the moment, trying very hard to stay objective.

Mis 678 - if you say things like ''All the market wants is results'' you are going to get a reaction. Especially when Azzauia, a company only purchased back in May of this year, is currently producing at an average over the last 3 recorded days, at a rate of 537 BOE per day. That's $6.8m per year to Zenith, clearly a result.

It's a shame the BOE per day figures were not sustained up in the 900's, unfortunately, this seems to have been a fluky week. However, a naturally produced 900 BOE per day justifies his claim that a workover can bring a steady flow of 1000 BOE per day very easily. $13m per year, that's only if they decide not to drill any more wells.

Moses151 - thankyou for the compliment. I doubt there is a shareholder in the country who intends to hold all their shares permanently, trading is the name of the game. What I will say is there are times when shares must be traded in quick time, Zenith is not one of them. Some of us have the ability to see the foundation and bricks laid one by one of a company on the verge of something wonderful. You have to see this through the eyes of the man holding the reins and steering the horses. if you can't see it, it's of no loss to you. You take your money and move on. If you can see it, you invest, hold and wait for the builder to complete his house.

So what are our expectations over the coming weeks/months. Well the obvious point of interest is the completion of the Robbana-1 well presently being worked over and due to complete in just over three weeks. This takes us to the end of September, which in theory gives the Tunisian ministry enough time to evaluate and assess our technical ability in order to approve the KUFPEK and CNPC contracts before the 30th October, the end of the already extended fixed term agreement. If all goes according to plan we could be sitting with an additional $10m in the bank before the 30th October. If, in the extreme circumstance the Tunisian ministry does not play ball in good time, I feel sure after waiting more than one and a half years an additional month could be very easily negotiated.

This brings us on to our second endeavour robbana-3. Expected to take approximately the same time as Rob-1. Taking into the account the dismantling and movement of the rig, then resetting over Rob-3, we could be looking at a minimum of two months to complete, somewhere around the end of November. Of course AC would not have been idle during this time and I'm sure he would be pressing the BCRA to increase our credit rating. More importantly, eagerly awaiting the Congo Parliamentary agenda for our licence to be ratified. I'm sure you are all aware that this licence has a material value of £20m based upon the comments within the recent final results. I can only assume this was concluded from the estimated investment by AAOG of £20m into the Tilapia project. Then we have after completing our due diligence, the finalising and signing of the contract with Noble Hill in Nigeria, not to mention the updating of the Canadian engineers report. Not to mention again any other deal that may take his fancy. So, much going on and plenty to look forward to. Very exciting indeed. GLA DYOR

I agree AGEOS, there must have been some degree of additional technical influence that excited ADME to sign up. I appreciate that ADME may have signed up to a slightly different aspect of the NW OML-141 concession, however, sign up they did. Because of this commitment from them we must assume that the due diligence carried out on their behalf convinced them to go forward. On that basis our due diligence must be already to some degree assured.

Flogging on deaf ears rpg7. The Zombies we thought had died off in Azerbaijan have again risen from the grave. The only thing they want to hear is AC never paid the gas bill in 1994. They just can't get their heads out of the past and recognise what's about to happen, very soon.

Will be interesting to see who's right on that point.

By the way, the rig looks impressive FV. Can't believe the workover can be anything other than successful.

Of course you are absolutely right TYB. We will see a market correction in the not too distant future and the correction will not be driven by market forces. It will be a full scale market rerate. You will wake up one morning to a spontaneous jump to 4 or 5p. Then and only then will the market pressure take hold and drive the price even further. It doesn't happen very often but imv this company has all the ingredients for this to happen and soon. So much news to come and each day those potential awaited events are reinforced with back up news that clears the path for these events happening. It is important to note, the imminent price increase may not be initiated by the Nigerian or Congo deals. This will imv, come from the successful workover of Robbana, which will lead to the approval from the Tunisian Ministry of Hydrocarbons for the SLK concessions. Getting the Congo licence ratified in quick time or the Nigerian due diligence completed earlier than 90 days will certainly be a bonus. However, a drill ready position on both sites, unfortunately, does not speed up the acquisition process. That doesn't mean to say that these two offerings could not happen at any time. Lets keep our fingers crossed. DYOR