George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Good point Clive, I think one will automatically follow the other. The first signs of increased production will show clearly the positively motivated enthusiasm, more importantly the technical and financial ability of Zenith to complete the task.
Dilution is not impossible but if all goes according to plan dilution will be avoided. Let's assume for one moment that only half of the 3,500 BOE per day predicted is achieved. 1,725 BOE per day = $41.5m, our present market cap is £11m ($13m). That has a multiple of 300%, in terms of share value 3.5p. A dilution based upon the loan agreement would reduce this by 0.5p. If on the other hand he reaches his target of 3,500 BOE per day, this relates to $83m or 6.5p. I must point out that these figures are based on only one years revenue. Company values are usually based upon 5 years revenue plus profit, in this case profit would amount to 80% or more of revenue. I must also remind you all, this is just one concession and he has multiple concessions with the potential to drill additional wells on Ezzaouia, additional wells on SLK when approved, and as many as ten on Tilapia when licence is awarded. This is without the Congo joint venture or the West African deal. This in my view is a multi billion dollar company in the making. DYOR
Dilution is not impossible but if all goes according to plan dilution will be avoided. Let's assume for one moment that only half of the 3,500 BOE per day predicted is achieved. 1,7250 BOE per day = $41.5m, our present market cap is £11m ($13m). That has a multiple of 300%, in terms of share value 3.5p. A dilution based upon the loan agreement would reduce this by 0.5p. If on the other hand he reaches his target of 3,500 BOE per day, this relates to $83m or 6.5p. I must point out that these figures are based on only one years revenue. Company values are usually based upon 5 years revenue plus profit, in this case profit would amount to 80% or more of revenue. I must also remind you all, this is just one concession and he has multiple concessions with the potential to drill additional wells on Ezzaouia, additional wells on SLK when approved, and as many as ten on Tilapia when licence is awarded. This is without the Congo joint venture or the West African deal. This in my view is a multi billion dollar company in the making. DYOR
It always amazes me how so many people who obviously have an interest in this company consistently knock anything the CEO does regardless of whether it's good or bad, "baffling". He told us over a month ago that he already had quotes of $3.5m for the development of El Bibane and Rabbana into production of 3,500 BOE per day. So it seems to me and must be obvious to everyone that some of the revenue from Ezzaouia ($400,000 per month) will be used to pay back the loan. I would suggest he will develop only part of El Bibane's six wells then utilise the proceeds from that first development to back the development of the remaining workovers required. The other part of this loan will be used for the purchase of the West African deal (4,000 - 12,000 BOE per day) imo. It is also blatantly obvious that AC see's all the works in Tunisia to be completed within six months, in my opinion he is erring on the side of caution, more like four months, not long to wait. DYOR
Kelsbells - I think Rimsha was right, you really do have to look at this from a different perspective. The new investors like myself, who are in serious profit here, are enthused with jubilant praise for the company as a whole and the CEO in particular. On the other hand there are those like yourself who, like those from AAOG have suffered considerably financial stress from unpredictable/unforeseen past events. In order to break free from this hindsighted and restricted mindset you must treat the present company as a new enterprise, a start up if you like. Not just brude on a feeling of loss but embrace the information newly presented as if you know nothing about the company and are eager to learn more. What do you see?, what are the fundamentals?, are they in debt?, can they pay their debtors?, do they have an income? at what point are they likely to run out of money?, is their income increasing?, what time period dose that increase effect profitability? is funding a problem?, at what point does funding become a problem?, what are the prospects of the company in the short term?, what are the prospects long term?, what is the percentage chance of the Tilapia licence award in the near term?, what is the percentage chance of the West African deal in the near term?. I could go on and on but you get the jist.
In my opinion they tick all the boxes and are without doubt the most exciting company on the main market at this time. I know it's easy for me to say, being pounds in already, but you really should be looking at recovery of your previously lost assets. I cannot advise where or when people should invest, but I would suggest using some of the fundamentals I have listed above in order to make sound decisions going forward. Good luck to everyone DYOR.
You are not alone IVS, it is my strong belief this price will be far in excess of 3p at some point in the near very future. We must not forget the share price multiplied three times on the back of the winning bid for Tilapia only, nothing else. From that we can assume the impact of receiving the 25 year licence will be just as fruitful if not more. The market at the moment is understandably looking for meat on the bones, and the Ezzaouisa deal was the first to establish an immediate income of $400,000 per month. We now have two more income producers with a golden opportunity to increase the output on both. Workovers for each of these three concessions could end up being a company changer in their own right, without the two Tunisian SLK concessions, without the Nigerian Marginal Field bid round, without the West African 4000 - 12000 BOE per day deal, without Tilapia licence approval, without the Congo local operator joint venture, without the new Canadian Engineers 2p reserve report, or the Ezzaouisa $1.25m in storage or the 70,000 barrels in KUFPEC storage or the $5.7m owed by SNPC or the $5.3m we are likely to receive from the SNP court case at the end of the year. None of these are required to keep this company floating. The company could stand alone on the three new concessions and be profitable with a fully worked over expectation of 3,500 BOE per day. I cannot tell you how important this is from the viewpoint of investors looking for an investment opportunity. We just need to sit back, enjoy the view, and wait.
I am also awaiting the mobilisation of the outsourced rig (cost - $3.5m) for the El Bibane concession, to bring production from this field up to 3,500 BOE per day. Recovery of the $3.5m is expected within a few months newly generated production once workover and drilling is completed.
I'm waiting for the Canadian engineers 51/101 - 2p reserves update, expected beginning of June, and then see the difference that update makes to the full year results and the share price. Shame the West African deal was not sooner, we could have then included an additional 4,000 - 12,000 BOE per day into the results, then 12p here we come.
The appointment of a new Country Manager (Mr. Donatien Mpika) is yet another step in the right direction. Validates the confidence and conviction that we will definitely be awarded the licence. No point in appointing a Country Manager if you have no licence.
The de-rampers will be out in full force for the next few weeks/months to slow down and dampen the news that is coming. The West African deal is not only an already producing field it is potentially bigger than Tilapia. We can't guarantee when this happens but AC said "we are progressing very fast now". He also said this is a company changer in addition to Tilapia that will bring the market cap to more than 400 NOK.