RE: UBS reiterated its "sell" recommendation TP 110p7 Sep 2024 18:07
We get it AimMaster you think BT isn't worth the current price, and you're hoping the price will drop to around £1, I think you've labored your point enough. For me this is all Deja Vue, the cable companies, Mercury/C&W, and others, were all supposed to eat BT's lunch and what happened? I had a front row seat, because I joined Mercury in the late 1980's and witnessed the various competitors that were supposedly going to damage BT. I watched C&W take over various cable companies, before selling the combined cable businesses to NTL; And I also witnessed the various telecommunication hierarchical evolution's, from the 1980's through to 2019, before retiring.
I would say that we've now reached a final Telecommunication hierarchical evolutionary point, within our current understanding of physics, where future developments will be small changes rather than full hierarchical change; This explains why the Altnets are now rolling out FTTP, because the fibre infrastructure will provide services for generations, with any future upgrades limited to the equipment on either end of the Fibre.
In Telecoms scale matters, the biggest disadvantage the ALTNET's have is that they're one trick ponies without ownership of their own mobile networks. I expect EE, VMO2, and Vodafone, to start offering competitive converged products, utilising a combination of Mobile and fixed line service that the ALTNET's will struggle to compete with; The ALTNET's could offer combined Mobile and FTTP services, but they'd have to compete as VMNO's on the MNO networks.
Something else to consider is that all these other companies rely on OFCOM to hold BT down. Given a free hand BT could easily outcompete the rest of the competition, otherwise why would OFCOM regulate BT so tightly? At some point OFCOM will have to take their boot off BT's neck, at that point it'll become apparent just how viable the competition is. By 2033 BT will have far less staff, and a far more efficient network with far fewer buildings and the same coverage, so their operating costs will be much lower which may be a significant problem for smaller scale competitors.
Personally I hope BT does drop from here, because I'll pile in and buy loads more stock, I'm not sure I'll be that lucky.