Member Info for fleccy

Off topic, but interesting. Just shows you how much money is sloshing around the system and how manipulated stocks are.

"The explosive rally in GameStop is showing no signs of slowing down as retail investors talking in chat rooms and hedge funds rushing to cover their short bets against the stock pushed it above $90 a share in early trading Monday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/gamestop-shares-jump-another-40percent-shake-off-analyst-downgrade-as-epic-short-squeeze-continues.html

Doing his bit to help UK stocks drop. This coming from the man who sold most of the UK's gold at historically low levels, and hammered the nails into the coffin of final salary pensions.

I don't have experience of satellite tech, but did have some thoughts on some of the tech described in the article. I wonder if the "SpaceBee" might double up as space bullets, I suppose their success will depend on the amount of data throughput, and the reliability of the RF connectivity.
I'm on the fence when it comes to low orbit satellites and pico/micro satellites. I assume the Design Engineers and Scientists know their stuff, and there are uses for this sort of tech, but I can't imagine it would have mass market appeal. I would think that terrestrial communications would be the first option. There are also projects involving Drone tech that might be better than satellite, and possibly solve Not-Spots. The tech may have uses where broadband is unavailable, or offer an interim solution.
I'm usually quite dismissive of this sort of thing as it seems a complicated solution to something that should be kept simple, but who knows?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54797917

This isn't relevant anymore, any reputational damage was done years ago and is already overpriced in.
Will the market really be bothered about a potential fine of just 2 million Euro's?

"If BT Italia is found guilty, then it could face a maximum fine of €2m for accounting irregularities – a drop in the ocean for a £13.5bn company."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/24/day-reckoning-looms-forthe-bosses-bts-stricken-italian-arm/

I can't find the website you've mentioned, but many of these forecasting sites run a simple statistical calculation based on price history and trend. It's the equivalent of looking back and guessing the future prices.
The best thing to do is research the companies you want to invest in, understand their business, and their potential. As far as analysts, you can only listen to their analysis and form your own opinion on their judgements. I look at companies like Facebook, Google, Apple, especially Tesla, and read the analyst views that it's different now than 1999/2000. I vividly remember the build up to the Dot Com crash, with people investing and sitting on shares thinking they would rise forever, until they crashed. Todays valuations around Tech stocks, and the rhetoric I read and hear is like Deja Vu.
Some of the questions to ponder:
Is BT, and Telecoms companies in general cheap?
Will Telecoms still be around in 10 Years?
Another argument against Telecom is the never ending rolling infrastructure investment required.

My View for what it's worth:
Telecoms is an undervalued sector, so Telecoms companies are cheap.
Telecoms become more important as time passes, the business models of the Tech giants depend on connectivity, and in years to come nearly every device on the planet will be connected.
5G, FTTP, and the move to a fully converged IP Cloud Infrastructure will set the mould for generations. Once the current investment cycle's completed. There wont be anymore massive investment cycles, unless scientists discover some new way of communicating outside of our current technology; I'm talking some sort of Star Trek style Quantum subspace form of communication, so a Science Fiction level leap.
DYOR

Video about AIRQKD. Quantum Key Distribution for 5G networks, important for various IOT applications like driverless cars, etc. Also gives some general insight into 5G.

https://vimeo.com/477566835

I have to admit, I find the Quantum world fascinating. Apparently the NCSC don't recognise QKD as a stand alone protection against Quantum decryption and seem to like the idea of PQC, or Post Quantum Cryptography.

"BT has joined forces with high-tech Cambridge spin-out Nu-Quantum, other UK start-ups, Research and Technology Organisations (RTOs) and university partners, as part of a world-first trial of end-to-end quantum-secured communications for 5G and connected cars."

https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-teams-up-with-uk-quantum-tech-start-ups-to-trial-worlds-most-secure-fixed-mobile-network-infrastructure-for-5g-and-connected-cars/

https://www.insidequantumtechnology.com/quantum-key-distribution-vs-post-quantum-cryptography/

"QKD: Full secrecy, high cost: Inside Quantum Technology believe that the appropriate usages for the QKD approach are highly sensitive applications where secrecy needs to be guaranteed under all circumstances, the parties communicating are in fixed locations and costs are not the number one concern. As we see it, the markets where the use case for QKD can be most easily made are government, the military, and certain parts of the financial services where the cost of a failure could be catastrophic.
While QKD is the only encryption scheme that can in theory promise complete security, the problem is that for terrestrial networks, quantum repeaters are needed and these not only do not exist yet, but no one knows when they will do so. As an alternative, the Chinese government and others have been investigating the use of satellites to send the photons over a long-distance using line-of-sight. According to Inside Quantum Technology’s estimates QKD hardware sales will reach about $980 million by 2024."

Some really interesting stuff going on at Adastral Park.

"The project, called 5G Edge-XR, will aim to innovate the way sports coverage is viewed through 5G-enabled virtual and augmented reality."

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/business/bt-project-on-future-of-5g-gets-dcms-funding-2684544

Already talked about this in previous posts.

"1st October 2020, London: BT and Toshiba Europe Limited today announce the UK’s first industrial deployment of a quantum-secure network, transmitting between the National Composites Centre (NCC), the UK’s world-leading composite research and development facility, and the Centre for Modelling & Simulation (CFMS), a not-for-profit research organisation that pioneers new digital engineering capabilities."

https://atadastral.co.uk/news/122/

“The demonstrations in our connected industry showcase allow us to show a technology capability to customers, who may not be aware of what is available and how BT can help them. Our Librestream demonstration shows customers how their software can be used to deliver a collaborative environment to troubleshoot, inspect and resolve issues in the field. We’ve seen interest in connected worker solutions like Librestream grow over 500% over the past three months,”

https://atadastral.co.uk/news/114/

Ummm.... universal service commitments and risk to life services

That's where the adequate notice and Emergency Overrun Service comes in I suspect. The Universal Service Obligation only covers installation cost up to £3,400 per property, any excess after that is down to the customer/customers. Anyone can be provided with service anywhere on the planet, or on the moon, but it comes down to cost. BT is no longer a state owned entity, so costings have to be commercially viable.

"Perhaps a use for Starlink, thinking about it for some locations."

Haha, not at their prices, or maybe they will. Satellite would fit the bill if there was no line of site to a radio mast. I've read [post intimating that BT won't be able to retire the copper network because this product, or that product, can't easily be moved, but that isn't BT's problem. As long as BT give adequate notice that they're withdrawing a product, then it's the customer who has the issue, not BT. From the articles it seems like BT want to help their customers, giving access to their "Digital Services Lab at Adastral Park".

https://atadastral.co.uk/bt/

"Yes I agree, as a former BT engineer myself who, along with countless others, did have a genuine fondness for the company and did do our best to get things sorted. I have been retired for more than 10 years now and appreciate that things have changed, but it was genuinely like a big family when I worked there from the early seventies"

Look on the bright side John, you had a safe job in a state company and kept fantastic benefits even as it went pubic. You're now retired, probably at 60, on a Final Salary Pension that beats the pants off most of your mates in other Jobs/industries, who probably worked an extra 5 years before reaching retirement. BT's terms and conditions will still wipe the floor with the vast majority of UK companies, even after recently the proposed changes. Anyone applying for a job at BT now, will still probably receive better terms and conditions that someone starting new at all the other UK Telecom companies. I believe there are lots of jobs in Amazon warehouses, or deliveries, for those not interested in a Telecoms career.
As far as BT's future, they need to cut costs to compete with the likes of Virgin Media and the rest. I've glanced through BT's cloud and IOT web pages and I think they're heading in the right direction and will do well.

As per last post, BT's Kilostream has passed end of life and is no longer supported. Some customers will no doubt receive service under the Emergency Overrun Service, but I suspect that they wont be covered under any SLA's and Faults will be on a best effort basis. BT are under no obligation to maintain any copper based services after 2025, and already pulling products in readiness for copper retirement.

"BT warned public sector customers to upgrade legacy analogue kit before support is pulled in March?2020. Public sector organisations were singled out because BT is reported to still have 900?customer accounts based on legacy analogue and Kilostream circuits, and a further 135 on old Featurenet virtual private networks. A limited number of accounts are said to qualify for BT’s Emergency Overrun Service, enabling them to receive extended support past the March deadline —?but not beyond December?2025, when BT’s entire ISDN and PTSN portfolio is due to be shuttered (BTwatch, #296, #297, and passim). A particular concern for the digital transition is the alarm and telecare market, of which many players rely on analogue copper cables. Providers have been invited since 2017 to test their equipment in the BT?Digital Services Lab at Adastral?Park."

https://www.telcotitans.com/btwatch/public-sector-must-upgrade-legacy-kit-bt-warns/1261.article

"March 2020 marked the end of support for BT Kilostream service"

"Radio-based solution
Radio solutions come in several forms including point-to-point or point-to-multipoint microwave solutions. These options meet the characteristics of the Kilostream service and benefit from flexibility in capacity which can be tailored to suit low data rate requirements. Both licensed and unlicensed radio solutions are options. The decision of which one to use depends upon location, with licensed options being preferred as licensing offers a degree of immunity to interference. Digital radio links are encrypted, highly secure and have high availability."

https://www.mmxcomms.com/news-article/bt-kilostream-replacement-options/

"BT has urged public sector organisations using its old Analogue, Kilostream and Featurenet private circuit and fixed line telephony products to prepare for their switch-off at the end of March"

https://www.ukauthority.com/articles/bt-warns-public-sector-bodies-to-plan-for-old-product-switch-offs/

"FTTP is not going to replace copper until 2040-50, if at all."

I believe it will be much faster than that, as I've stated leased traffic could be migrated now. Who still uses X25, or X21, or any of the old data products? My internet connection is faster than the old 512Kb X21 circuits I used to test, with my PFA35 lol, and is much cheaper. I'm willing to bet there will be very few copper fed customers by 2025, apart from the FTTC customers awaiting migration to FTTP, and they will lose their landline anyway after the PSTN switch off. Openreach will be on a mission to get every customer onto FTTP asap after 2025. If Openreach/BT do it right, they could have cleared all the redundant exchanges of customers by 2030 and stripped many out, in my opinion.

https://www.ringcentral.co.uk/gb/en/blog/pstn-switch-off-impact-business/

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0036/197289/consultation-copper-retirement-process.pdf

This ISPreview article states 100 exchanges by Dec 2030, with a possibility that 4500 possibly closed by the early 2030's. What I don't understand is the timeline, There's also a comment about concerns around Sky and Talk Talk having invested in unbundling affecting the timeline for exchange closures. I left the field about 11 years ago, but part of my job back then was dealing with backhaul to DSLAMS at BT exchanges. I have no idea how unbundling works with FTTC, but the DSLAMS back then were ADSL and had backhaul connectivity of 100mb, or 1Gb, and wouldn't have been functional after PSTN switch off. Once most customers are moved onto FTTP, the unbundling arrangements would be different, so I find some of the reported timeline information confusing.
Once the PSTN switch off occurs, all the current legacy unbundled schemes should be obsolete. Openreach are offering new services SOGEA, SOTAP, and FAST. You'd expect that these new replacement products would be supplied from the remaining Fibre access locations earmarked for GPON, and any unbundled service at old exchanges will be defunct.
Since BT should know which exchanges they're closing, and you'd think that the FTTP/GPON rollout is to the planned remaining locations, site closures should be easy in 2030. Wholesale users of BT FTTP infrastructure may be managed on a VLAN basis, whereas PIA wholesale customers will manage the Fibres, Equipment and Customers and may, or may not, terminate the customers in colocation areas within the remaining (new) network locations.
As far as Leased circuits, they could be migrated now if the relevant Network Equipment is installed within the earmarked permanent Network locations, with any new leased circuits also installed there. Since the copper network's being retired I would think that any leased circuits would have to be fibre fed, and at least 100mb, so moving them should be easy. Any optical path issues, due to increased distance, could be resolved by replacing the SFP/XFP's with long range equivalents. A SFP-10GBase-ZR has a range of up to 80KM on single mode Fibre, so distance wont be an issue.

"The proposed plan indicates that Openreach may aim to exit at least 100 exchanges by December 2030 and full decommissioning of all equipment would then follow one year later. After that the process would speed up until the other 4,500 have been completed, which could all occur during the early 2030s. Maintaining continuity of service for end customers will be a key part of all this."

"We suspect that concerns may be raised around those exchanges where rival ISPs, such as Sky Broadband and TalkTalk, have invested in unbundling in order to gain more control. Likewise, a large number of exchanges are also used to provide leased line services. As we say, none of this is going to be easy."

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/12/openreach-consult-on-closure-plans-for-4600-uk-exchanges.html

"The future could be golden but I'm not yet confident enough to sink more cash into this crippled company. Sell the TV division and Openreach and we might be onto a winner."

Openreach is just the workforce, and not the infrastructure, Ducts/Fibre/wayleaves/etc are BT owned. BT may look at outsourcing the Openreach workforce once FTTP rollout is completed. That aside, BT is by no means crippled, they earn over £20 Billion revenue with over £2 Billion net profit per year. BT are in the midst of a massive investment, which will lead to huge cost savings and increased efficiency, why the market is dismissive is anyone's guess. I have to admit, I'm confused why BT got into sports channels, etc, but they must perceive that the offering brings in extra business, maybe pubs, etc.

"Regardless of whether BT or Telereal own them, until customers and services are migrated off the system X and AXE10 switches they can't be shut down and that is not happening anytime soon."

Ofcom and BT are advising that PSTN will be switched off by Jan 2026, so all the current ISDN30, ISDN 2, and landlines will go. Over the next couple of years customers will be notified, and no doubt there'll be an advertising blitz telling everyone of the approaching switch off. Most big businesses have already moved onto some sort of voip solution, and I suspect most businesses also no longer use PDH connectivity, ie 2, 8, 34mb. Once the PSTN switches are powered down, BT will likely send in teams to strip out the buildings, ready to hand back to Telereal Trillium around 2030, which is when the 30 year leaseback deal comes to an end.
I'm not sure how BT will proceed with scrapping the exchanges and recovering cabling, etc. The circuit boards, in the masses of Equipment, will have significant scrap value with many containing components with Rare Earth Elements. Since all the new network connections will be Fibre, all the 2003/2002 coaxial cables will be easily recoverable and have high copper content. I have no idea how easy external copper cable retrieval will be.
The planning for the PSTN switch off, and Network locations for GPON terminations would have been long in the planning by Engineers, not managers, so it will likely be done correctly whatever you may think of management.

With the move to FTTP:
Most of the exchange locations will go, so massive savings in building footprint.
GPON is passive, so no power requirements outside the remaining Network locations.
No central office battery requirement for powering landline phones. Obviously the network sites will have Battery backup and Generators, but overall BT's power requirements will drop substantially.
Less equipment is required, the Network Switch/Routers will deal with both voice and data with everything interconnected by Fibre/DWDM, and processed within the Cloud.

I don't see where the negativity toward BT comes from.

No one is forced to invest in companies, any one who see's BT as a bad investment should sell. Personally I see huge potential in companies like BT and Vodafone. Telecoms are going through the last transformation for generations. Once FTTP and 5G is completed the networks will just sit there printing money. With regulation and competition, BT isn't a growth play, but it has huge cost cutting potential to grow Net Profit.

"I've already explained to you that closing down exchange buildings to sell is not a simple option, neither is it very cost-effective."

BT don't own the Exchange buildings, they sold the buildings years ago and lease them back. The long term lease commitments are due to expire in coming years, it is in BT's interest to divest of as many exchanges as possible.
Terraplane, I don't understand your reasoning on this. It's been well debated that FTTP using GPON doesn't require Network sites to be geographically close. All the PSTN exchanges will be switched off, with all voice and data dealt with by a converged IP/Cloud infrastructure. Because FTTP allows DWDM, the bandwidth is determined by the number of users and the terminating Equipment, so upgrading is easy when required; For example, if you had a customer requiring 10GB you could connect equipment using splitters and dedicated wavelengths, without interfering with other users on different wavelengths. It's a no brainer.

"Terraplane, what a fantastic rant, 100% true, post of the year so far"

BT must have done something right, they've outlasted Cable & Wireless who made their own set of disastrous choices. They outlasted the early Cable companies who all went bust with NTL picking up the pieces. If BT struggle going forward it wont be due to management decisions, it will be due to old legacy issues like union strength. No doubt competitors laugh when they see the CWU trying to nail down BT's left hand, while the competitors complain to Ofcom to nail down the right. I've never worked for BT, but reading between the lines some of the posters on here have.
Terraplane, your dislike for BT radiates in your post. I'm not sure what they have done to upset you, maybe you worked for them and something happened, or you have other reasons to dislike them. Although I haven't worked for BT, I've worked on their sites and I've worked with their Engineers, so I do have some insight into their strengths.
The most important task for BT management now is to cut costs, and that appears to be the plan. They need to close sites, slim down the workforce and concentrate on efficiencies. CityFibre, Vodafone and Virgin Media are unlikely to have collective bargaining, so they can do what they like within employment law, without having to contend with the CWU calling a strike. The CWU should recognise when BT are offering fair terms and also recognise BT's need to slim down. CWU calling for a strike doesn't help anyone, least of all the current BT employees.

Before I pop off to bed, I'll finish by saying that BT wont have to pay £600 million, or 600p, as there doesn't appear to be any case to answer imo.
As pointed out in previous posts:

Landline only service was unregulated in the period covered by the threatened lawsuit.
There were other cheaper options for customers unhappy with the rental cost.
Overcharging comes under the remit of Ofcom, not the competition authorities.
Since BT are accused of overcharging rather than undercutting rivals, no competition issue.

All of the above has been covered in previous posts, with links to relevant publications. It wouldn't surprise me if this doesn't even go to court.
I thought about the Significant Market Power angle, but BT were unregulated and Ofcom had previously concluded that BT wasn't an SMP in 2009, so changing their mind in 2017 doesn't really cut it, and BT will probably argue that there were other voice calling options anyway. If anyone can find links to relevant information indicating where BT did break Competition law, I'll happily read through it and attempt to understand it. I bet no one on here can find anything to suggest BT actually did anything contravening the law.

"I am personally disappointed. A rip off of the elderly just because they could, very poor show, almost to the point of saying I am ashamed to be a share holder."

You should sell then if you're that aggrieved by this, or just admit that you don't actually own any BT shares and this is just feigned indignation.