Member Info for fleccy

"Hi. Any idea anyone how much of BT stock is currentmy shorted"

All the short tracker websites show no open short interest in BT,

Just to add to my last post, they published two Net Profit figures:
GAAP $721 Million
Non GAAP $2,455 Billion

I quoted the GAAP figure in my last post, as that that conforms to generally accepted accounting principles. It also mentions an adjustment for the 5 for one stock split in August to reflect prior years profit/loss, but not really relevant unless you're looking at other sources to compare results. I'm assuming I've quoted the correct Net Profit, as it has it as Net Income attributable to common stock holders,

Full year revenue is $31.536 Billion, Net Profit $721 Million. BT beat Tesla on Net Profit and around the same Revenue on last years full year earnings.
BT is valued at $17.85 Billion whereas Tesla is valued at $819.14 Billion, just short of 46 times BT's value. What's wrong with this picture?

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/78Z2ZX_2020_Q4_Quarterly_Update_Deck_SMXBZX.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q4-2020-Update.pdf%22

"Really? I don’t think there’s anything related to covid that is a laughing matter and think referring to it with the intent of political point scoring is contemptible."

Personally I thought the play on words was hilarious, you need to lighten up Pete.

Hahahahahahahahahaha Frau Fond Of Lying

Just read that in the comments section of a Telegraph article about Covid Vaccines. I'm still laughing as I type this.

https://www.cityam.com/reddit-day-traders-out-for-blood-as-they-tell-gamestop-short-sellers-we-want-to-see-the-loss-porn/

https://www.cnbctv18.com/videos/market/explained-why-us-listed-gamestop-has-risen-over-800-in-january-2021-8119291.htm

"Hedge fund shorters on the whole go after flash Harry's and the like, who are pulling the wool over the eyes of the man-in-the-street investor. (Quindell)"

Well it appears that many people are willing to risk hundreds, or possibly thousands of dollars to give the shorters a bloody nose. How much of this "swarm" investing is driven by big money, in the background, is anyone's guess. This is still being pumped in the mainstream media, and online, so may have more legs. The word "Stonk" was tweeted by Elon, which ironically means a concentrated artillery bombardment, apparently though in the trading world it's a deliberate misspelling of stock. In this case a concentrated bombardment is possibly more appropriate.

"because everything was the fault of the hedge fund shorters all along. And now they've gone, the SP is only rising to its true worth"

I read that the original short's had bailed and new short trades had stepped in, expecting to profit from the inevitable fall, and are now also under attack. It's a strange situation where lots of people investing relatively small amounts, are pushing up the stock price aided by momentum algorithms. Of course it wont go on for ever, but the short sellers are getting a battering and the new shorts may be pulled down too. I read somewhere that GameStop is worth around $4 a share, it's currently just shy of $148. Some big players will be nursing big losses, but I've no sympathy for short sellers.

I use the term "manipulate", in GameStop's case, as social media is being used to encourage swarm investment in order to squeeze the short trades, and successfully by the looks of things. There's also some big investors, on the buy side too. No doubt the current buy side big players will sell, and then short when they perceive the rally is petering out.

I've previously mentioned how easy it is to manipulate stocks in the current market, but many dismiss it a some wild conspiracy style view. Velo, what do you make of GameStop's price action?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shorts-get-squeezed-morning-brief-111100682.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/01/26/gamestop-short-sellers-lose-16bn-just-one-day/

I'm hoping for £2.

"If what's on screen at the mo' was the actual close at end of trading today, I'd be prepared to call it in and opine the current pullback is terminating."

Personally I find BT's current price disappointing. I expected BT to to be nudging toward 160p by now. The market has played down the positive UK Vaccine rollout, there's an unwarranted, imo, class action threat that has miraculously appeared out of the blue, and UBS has made a point of talking BT down. Even though I'm unhappy with the treatment BT receives, my long term view is unwavering, and I'm betting on big gains at some point.

"It's forecast to be a little higher than BT's net profit - for last year, not the lower BT net profit forecast for this year ending in March."

I've seen a couple of Tesla's on the road, so they're a bit less rare than Hen's teeth, but their current P/E multiple will never be reflected in their revenue, or Net Profits. Musk has been innovative with his batteries, definitely a dreamer and an innovator, but competition is starting to show through now. Companies like BritVolt and others are moving into the Gigafactory space, and all car manufacturers are moving production to electric. Tesla could have mass market appeal, but their prices would have to drop significantly. We replace our cars approximately every 10 years, we're not motorheads, and we've decided our next cars will be electric. I would consider a Model X, but a price tag over £80,000 makes me balk. I'll probably go for something like an all electric Quashqui, which will likely be much, much cheaper than Tesla's offerings, 8 or 9 years from now. I keep wondering if Tesla investors recognise that Tesla are top end prices and lack mass market appeal at current prices, and wonder about the current astronomical market valuation. I have no interest in the automotive world, but I get interested in sectors and companies that wildly exceed historic/normal valuation metrics.
Telecoms seem to be at the other end of the spectrum, currently beaten down on a whim. Honestly, I don't understand the prevailing market narrative built around the telecom sector, I see Telecoms among the biggest powerhouse sectors of the future, within a fully connected world. I think the market is blinkered, dismissive, and currently self reinforcing in it's view. I'm just topping up my telecom investments, as I go along, awaiting the market blinkers coming off. 2025 to 2030 is my guess for a narrative change, I'll keep placing more chips down and increasing my bets in the meantime.

"Having said that, The contents of the post you link to, are sheer rubbish, with only one, no, just two numbers correct"

I just posted a link to an article and pasted text from said article, I made no reference to its accuracy lol. Personally I think BT could be worth up to £5, and I've seen articles stating that BT is worth less than £1. Lets be honest, if the market values Tesla at $880 per share, giving it a market cap of nearly $835 Billion, BT could be worth anything. We just need to find a mythical artefact that grants fantasy stock prices. I'm on a Quest to find a doorway to Fillory, where I can find the Wellspring and drink, to cast a spell giving BT a similar multiple to Tesla. Master Magician Elon Musk appears to have found such a doorway, how else do you explain Tesla's valuation?

"but I've never before heard an investor suggest that a company's balance sheet is irrelevant"

That wasn't the part I was focusing on. The full quote I pasted and made reference to was:

"Ryanair have better balance sheet and can outlast rival companies in this sense"

I was actually referring to the "and can outlast rival companies in this sense" section of the quote,

Obviously the balance sheet is relevant as it protects current shareholders, and reduces the risk of Ryanair going bust, but Ryanair outlasting rivals is irrelevant. It doesn't matter if all the competition goes bust, because it will just cause a transfer of equity from the current shareholders to the bondholders. Ryanair will still come out of this with a damaged balance sheet and the competitors will still be there carrying passengers. Investing in Ryanair on the premise that the competition will cease to exist, and Ryanair will grab all the business, isn't the most likely scenario.

WTF

OK, if interested, copy paste and take out the spaces I've inserted in www. directors talk interviews lol

https://www. directors talk interviews.com/bt-group-plc-ord-5p---consensus-indicates-potential-110.9-upside/412955727

not sure why the link has filtered out I'll try again.

https://www.***************************/bt-group-plc-ord-5p---consensus-indicates-potential-110.9-upside/412955727

Just in case it blanks out again, the missing bit was *************interviews .com without the space before the .com

"The range between the high target price and low target price is between £3.60 and £2.35 with a mean TP of £2.85. Given that the previous closing share price was at £1.35 this now indicates there is a potential upside of 110.9%. "

https://www.***************************/bt-group-plc-ord-5p---consensus-indicates-potential-110.9-upside/412955727

"That's correct, and the current SP is sadly, a true reflection of this today."

Indeed, I'll be buying some more after the 5th Feb.

"Ryanair have better balance sheet and can outlast rival companies in this sense"

That isn't relevant. Lets imagine that IAG, Easyjet, Lufthansa all went bust, do you think that their planes will just stop flying, and Ryanair will ride in and mop up their vacated business? That scenario is unlikely, in reality what will happen is the receivers will move in and offer the equity to the bondholders in the first instance, while keeping the business running. The bondholders will either sell the equity to a third party or move in management to take over the business. The new owners will strip out the unprofitable parts of the businesses and Voila, RYA will have new competitors with their debt washed away and clean balance sheets. Even if RYA is one of the survivors, it wont necessarily come out of this in a strong position. This isn't a new phenomena, it's actually quite common, the moral of the story is, don't count your chickens until they've hatched.