Member Info for fleccy

This is more me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7e7YnsB9Jc

Young man
Old man
Don't matter if you're a big man
Strong man
I'm coming after anybody get in my way
I won't have it
Be the first one coming through the barricade
Don't get me all fired up
Time to fly baby
Get yo hands up
Realize that the go is about to gear off
So get tough when your name is called I see you standing tall
If anyone comes to get you
Gonna have to come through us all
We got nothing to lose and we're not giving up
So stand (stand)
If you want it all stand (stand)
Against the odds just stand (stand)
You can never fall
You gotta stand up stand up to 'em
Stand (stand)
So who you gonna call
Stand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2YM2EeWDqg

Blue skies
Smiling at me
Nothing but blue skies
Do I see
Bluebirds
Singing a song
Nothing but bluebirds
All day long
Never saw the sun shining so bright
Never saw things going so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you're in love, my how they fly
Blue days
All of them gone
Nothing but blue skies
From now on

"Do a comparison with Tesco results and these look cheap as chips."

Compare BT to Ryanair. Ryanair burnt through a Billion Euros in the last quarter, don't be fooled by them reporting a loss of only 321 million Euros. Ryanair are also forecasting a total loss for FY21 of around a Billion Euros, yet their net cash reduced by a Billion in the last quarter, why wouldn't they burn through another Billion Euros in Q4,
When you read articles about BT, they constantly use wording implying BT is struggling, yet BT's figures suggest otherwise. I suspect RYA is pumped up due to the amount of stock held by certain institutional investors, whereas BT is more popular with retail. I used RYA as an example, because it consistently outperforms BT on share price, yet the Airline industry is on its rr'se.
RYA benefits from the fantasy forward earnings speculation I mentioned in a previous post, and RYA may have a low debt but it isn't well covered by operating cashflow. What I'm saying is that individual company share prices, are based on speculative future, possibly fantasy, earnings. Various stock valuations are reminiscent of the pre dotcom bust, BT isn't one of them.

A takeover is highly unlikely imo. I think this is part of a sustained retail shakeout of various UK stocks, on the back of Brexit and the pandemic, some worse than others. Many retail holders will be scared out, or forced out. At some point BT will return to fair value, but who knows when? I'm just periodically adding while the price is low.

"Absolutely, shorters preparing this for a cheap takeover by a US giant."

I can't find any notified short positions, so they'd have to be low percentage positions. There are other ways to drive a stock down.

It's clear to me that BT's share price would have dropped today, no matter how good the results were. The cake was pre-baked.

If BT had issued a profit warning it would probably have gone up, what an upside down topsy turvy market this is.

I was bored, so extracted the price action for previous result days, just for fun.
Hopefully it will paste in ok

Previous Result days.
____________________________________________
Date~~~~~~|Open ~| High~ |Low ~~ |Close~ | Volume
31/01/2019 | 224.9 | 238.00 | 221.00 | 232.40 | 66510514
09/05/2019 | 213.0 | 224.00 | 208.15 | 210.75 | 34273107
02/08/2019 | 191.2 | 191.82 | 184.36 | 186.02 | 45881097
31/10/2019 |201.95| 207.12| 197.16 | 204.70 | 37415300
30/01/2020 |167.46| 169.32| 160.84 | 162.40 | 95388469
07/05/2020 |104.00| 109.51| 101.10 | 104.95 | 141653292
31/07/2020 |109.00| 110.40| 98.580 | 98.580 | 63494812
29/10/2020 |110.00| 111.00| 99.120 | 99.120 | 67713979

https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/two-reasons-why-the-market-might-be-missing-a-trick-with-bt-183139/

"Looks like you are in luck .... who would have thought it..... lol"

Me!!!

"Conclusion?"

The market no longer values companies on fundamentals, but on fantasy forward earning predictions. There's that much liquidity sloshing about the system, that Market Makers can set any stock at any price. There's no way many of the "Tech" stocks warrant the sky high valuations they have. The current situation feels artificial, as though US tech companies are given a leg up through inflating their stock price, whereas other companies are undermined to test them for any weakness.
Tesla could sell shares at its hugely inflated stock price, allowing them to either pay down debt, invest in the business, or even take over other manufacturers if they wished. It's like they're been aided to undermine the competition via the back door.
Is it just me that thinks this all has a feel of being scripted and artificial?

"BT needs to expand in non-regulatory sectors if it wants to make money. If BT makes huge profit, the press would say they are ripping people off. Look what happened to British Gas, let’s see what the new digital unit comes up with.......fintech (robinhood copycat / crypto/ savings / payment)."

As I've said many times, BT isn't currently in a growth phase they are in a cost cutting and transformation phase. BT's strength is in the ownership of the infrastructure that'll support the rollout of all their competitors network build. BT will get a cut of whatever investment their competitors make, and receive income from rental on a rolling basis.
There will be growth opportunities around IOT, and BT seem to be making the right moves. 5G IOT will be massive and will present opportunities around remote control, monitoring, and data harvesting. BT are investing in crypto technologies to offer secure IOT services, which will be critical for controlling drones, self driving cars, etc, etc. IOT will be a massive gamechanger for the 5G infrastructure providers.

"Just got an email back, credit where due .... said she would correct it asap."

I hope she'll take penance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7pioagkX5k

I can't be bothered emailing her myself. It reinforces my view that BT will be talked down until certain players decide to change the narrative. It wouldn't surprise me if BT finish the day down, which is ok since I'm planning to top up tomorrow, or Monday.

"The CityAM headline is completely misleading"

I'll rephrase that:

"The CityAM headline is completely wrong"

CityAM Headline:

"Revenue at BT was down some £16bn in the first nine month of the financial year, a seven per cent drop that the telecoms giant put primarily down to coronavirus.,"

https://www.cityam.com/revenue-and-profit-fall-at-bt-as-coronavirus-continues-to-hit-telecom-giant/

Reality:

"Revenue £16,058m, down 7% due primarily to the impact of Covid-19"

https://www.bt.com/about/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/results-events-and-financial-calendar/2020-21#q3-2020-21-results

The CityAM headline is completely misleading, they should learn to read company statements.

"The expensive comment was from polo tang the ubs analysts who has always been out on this stock."

Polo Tang seems to be mentioned regularly on sharecast. He's a BT Permabear, who appears to base his analysis fo BT on emotion rather than fundamentals. Maybe a childhood incident is the the root of his BT hatred.

The share price direction, for BT, is clearly unrelated to fundamentals or results.
This may be useful, in determining the direction tomorrow.

https://www.allure.com/story/how-to-read-tea-leaves-tasseography

https://international-adviser.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/05/crystal-ball-future-predict.jpg

"London SEx is indeed showing 38m, but good luck interpreting the in's and outs of after-hours off-book volumes :)"

Hi Velo, I'm not sure what's going on with the London Stock Exchange volumes. Yesterday the volume showed over 38 Million shares traded, but they're now showing yesterdays volume as 18.49 Million shares traded, very confusing. All I can think, is that they only show the XLON volumes on the daily bar chart, and ignore the off exchange trades.

For example,what does Capstone Global vodafone group plc GBOOBH4HK539 1.12.27/11/2019 mean

My understanding is that Capstone have shorted 1.12% of VOD stock since 27/11/2019. Since the FCA spreadsheet still shows the short, I assume it's current.

"Hi fleccy, it seems that the short positions have increased a bit last year. Is that your take on it?"

To be honest, I've never shorted any stock ever, I have no idea why the short is still showing on the FCA daily update.