Member Info for fleccy

"I know the time is now right for me to step down and FOCUS ON OTHER INTERESTS ..."

I did see that, but businessmen, like politicians, will always keep their options open. There is another possibility, that he may have been pushed out by the board. Although there's been no publicity around strategy disagreements, in BT's case, it isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

"Maybe they view it as an honourable 'falling on the sword' moment?"

He is 67, maybe he's simply decided it's time to hang up the work suit, and get the fishing tackle, or golf clubs out instead. Sometimes people decide to retire because they're tired, and realise that life is short.

"Fleccy any predictions for next weeks sp ?"

indeed, I can predict with 100% certainty, next week BT's share price will be either above, below, or the same as the closing price on Friday. My opinion long term, is that BT is worth three times the current valuation.

"for Mikey to publish some horrendous figures like IAG did this morning, then it will be 20e nailed on lol. £6.5b loss and it goes up, unreal."

Day, have you considered that RYA are reporting their figures in a different way to IAG. How do you square RYA's reported Q3 loss of €306m, with their "€3.5bn cash at quarter end (31 Dec.)", against their reported Q2 "over €4.5bn cash at 30 Sep"?
if burning through a Billion Euros in a Quarter isn't translated into a loss, how is that cash burn accounted for?
I'm probably looking at it in an over simplistic way; From my layman perspective, I base my finances not just by income, but also the amount of cash I have in the bank. If I add up all my bills, subtract my income, and then find that my Bank balance has dropped by a Billion Euro's, ( I wish I was that rich) , then as far as I'm concerned I've lost a Billion, not €306m.
Day, I haven't gone through the results with a fine toothcomb, but I'd be happy to read why RYA only report €306m up to 31 Dec 2020, when their cash reserve has dropped by a Billion Euro's.
I'm not invested in RYA, or IAG, but IAG don't look much worse off at a glance. It will be interesting to see RYA's full year figures when they come out. Both Airlines are currently in dire straits imo. Check out IAG's FY to December results below

https://www.iairgroup.com/~/media/Files/I/IAG/documents/IMS/interim-management-report-for-full-year-to-december-31-2020.pdf

Here are RYA's Q3-FY21-Results
https://investor.ryanair.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Ryanair-Q3-FY21-Results.pdf

"HaHa, good escape Velo. Your acting like a slippery eel not letting the market catch you out."

It's only useful if you buy back in at the lower price, and take the chance that the price will increase from there. My personal view is that BT is so undervalued that it will see significant upside at some point. I'm still down on my BT investment overall, but I topped up £15,000 worth at 106p, £20,000 worth at 112p, and recently bought another £1600 worth at 123p. I'll just hold through the ups & downs, and decide on selling when I see the right price, which is at least 150% north of the current price. Like Velo disciplines himself to follow his method, and sell at a loss if required, I invest where I see value and hold through thick and thin until I make a profit. I've been down significantly, on other investments in the past, but my investments have always come good eventually, as will my investment in BT.

Velo I know you love charts as a tool to predict price movements. How do you explain these moves in BT toward the end of 2020? I've only charted the recent upward movements, obviously BT has lost much of the price gain since it climbed into the higher 140's. I don't believe you can chart BT's price movement with any certainty. Please see charts, below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTF-k3lA_C1VtORHNEfyLcSBVYlas_Y5xE28CjTTT_9HO_Yx7emBixd36CHqstRPfh3GWqx3xMcZwNR/pubchart?oid=987433372&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTF-k3lA_C1VtORHNEfyLcSBVYlas_Y5xE28CjTTT_9HO_Yx7emBixd36CHqstRPfh3GWqx3xMcZwNR/pubchart?oid=1814860612&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTF-k3lA_C1VtORHNEfyLcSBVYlas_Y5xE28CjTTT_9HO_Yx7emBixd36CHqstRPfh3GWqx3xMcZwNR/pubchart?oid=627487239&format=interactive

Might be good for Telecoms today, lets see what happens.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-deutsche-telekom-guides-growth-061420638.html

If the Markets were a section in a library, and stocks are books on the shelves, then the whole lot would be deep in the fictional area of the building. Just look at the valuations given to US tech, or individual stocks like Gamestop which was $4.3 in July last year, and reached around $350 last month. Alternatively you have strong cash generative businesses struggling to get to a P/E of 10.
You have to wonder how the financial authorities will initiate a wake up from this dreamscape market, where reality is on hold, and participants have no idea they're asleep at the wheel, or when the car might veer off the road. Will it end in a crash, or will the market regain consciousness and pull into the nearest layby?

"these dangerously toxic retraces back into 120's are quite threatening."

In what way? Assuming the vaccine rollout continues at pace, the pension review is positive, and dividend policy is confirmed in the FY results, BT can only go one way.
If todays drop is on the back of the strike by 170 repayments project engineers, then it's well overdone imo. I would think the RPE's responsibilities could be covered by their managers, bringing in Fibre Engineers and contractors to give support where necessary. I've learnt that no one is irreplaceable, and everyone has the choice to move on if they don't like their job. BT are in a transition, the CWU and the staff should recognise that and support BT in strengthening its position. If these guys are part of the old guard, which i suspect they are, they'll probably hold a significant number of shares, and have a nice pension pot awaiting them in retirement, they have no reason to feel aggrieved imo.

To add to my last post, I realise that these guys are no longer on the tools, I was referring to their progression into the role of repayments project engineers. No doubt some of the BT employee posters will correct me if I'm wrong.

"It appears to be a roll based around a good knowledge of BTs network and civil engineering. If interested,"

My impression was that the job is a step up from Fibre/Cable jointer roles, with Field experience being on the Cabling and civils side of things. Fibre jointing and Cabling might be a skills oriented role, with good jointers being fast and in demand, but it isn't classed as a technical role and doesn't require the same technical qualifications as Transmission, Data, or switch Engineering. 45K is a good wage for someone from a Cable background.

"I notice (thanks for the update in your chart) it's back to circa 16 as if no March crash had occurred and no lockdown in the airlines either! What can you say except - The luck of the Irish, eh? :)"

It's not luck imo, I think RYA is overvalued in the current circumstances. The touted explanation for RYA's outperformance, is optimism around the post pandemic restructuring of Airline's, and optimism around RYA grabbing business from the rest. My personal view is that optimism around RYA is overdone, and the EU/UK are going to protect others who wish to retain lucrative Airport slots. Even if other Airlines go bust, their businesses may continue under new ownership, with RYA denied the prize they desire. I think the chart nicely presents the distortion between sentiment and fundamentals, for said stocks, in spite of the pandemics impact on the individual stocks.

Velo here's a chart you might like. It shows a performance comparison between BT.A, VOD, and RYA. This highlights the current weirdness around sentiment toward individual stocks and sectors. Both BT.A and VOD have come through the Pandemic relatively unscathed, whereas RYA is burning through a Billion Euros per Quarter, but look at how sentiment has RYA outperforming. To scale the comparison, I've altered the Close Price for RYA, so to convert RYA closing price to Euro's just divide the Vertical axis scale by 10. BT and VOD are scaled correctly on the Vertical axis, and are in Pence.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSRXB-1sxAle72GnkR-SF0E5QD6RHPSYGlVVvm1KqTmzBlulSEsSRTGIIj2DVBgZyM684m-9f7E61T1/pubchart?oid=1613401209&format=interactive

It didn't take me very long producing that chart and it's interactive, so should update automatically. I used the Daily closing prices in this case, but I could have charted the volumes, Day High, Day low, and opening prices had I wished. What I like about Google sheets is the ease in using the finance functions and producing and editing the charts. In the case of this chart, I used scale between 100 to 150p, but I could have set the scale as large or small as I wanted. and looked for specific crossing points. Another thing you can do is grab the data, and run Formulas to change the data, and then present the changed data in charts to analyse from different points of view. I also could have added more stocks and presented them on the same chart. Basically I can do whatever I want to view the data in different ways, that's the versatility of using Google sheets. It's easy to use too, just a basic knowledge of Excel is all that's required.

I've republished the chart in UK Date format, since some struggle with the US format. BT.A is in Blue, VOD in Red.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTZJfi4WWjPM24kuDjagPCEAChjrZvMHnR4pJNUiHPKY0dCiPTzNo8D4nwBgX3I-kM6D7PKnh2lzllW/pubchart?oid=987433372&format=interactive

Velo, did you like the chart I made? It gives a nice representation of the closing price differential between the two stocks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTZJfi4WWjPM24kuDjagPCEAChjrZvMHnR4pJNUiHPKY0dCiPTzNo8D4nwBgX3I-kM6D7PKnh2lzllW/pubchart?oid=987433372&format=interactive

"Hopefully brighter times are ahead for BT. The share price is literally cheaper than a bag of chips but so are many UK listed companies."

Telecoms should have been a safe haven winner in the Pandemic, yet they were hammered as much as, or more than Airlines. I like to compare price movements of VOD and BT to Ryanair, where Ryanair outperforms both even though it's burning through around £1 Billion every quarter. It highlights the insane market we are currently witnessing. I believe that certain sectors and stocks are in the midst of a long term retail shakeout, and at some point the narrative will miraculously change. It makes no sense that Telecom stocks are being punished as much as Airlines, during the Pandemic, it must be by design.

"Fleccy, his might interest you - A new pressure group run by a New Zealand woman living in the UK has teamed up with Age UK Charity to tackle phone bill issues and the vulnerable."

Being a cynical type, funny how this story pops up in the period leading up to the Class Action Lawsuit. I expect more stories like this will appear this year. It wouldn't surprise me if Kaye Just appears on Justin Le Patourel's Advisory Panel, in the Competition Appeal Tribunal case.
As far as being defensive about the case, I'm just looking at the facts. It's seems likely that Justin Le Patourel will claim the agreement between BT and Ofcom, to reduce the rental charge, sets a benchmark proving that BT were overcharging. Ofcom will probably be called up to advise on why BT wasn't fined, or forced to refund customers.
This case may not even get into court, BT may argue that Le Patourel isn't qualified to represent the class, as this would fall within Ofcom's domain. Time will tell how this plays out, but Le Patourel has a mountain to climb to win this, in my opinion. Of course it isn't Le Patourel alone, this is being financed by Harbour Litigation Funding. Was this Class Action initiated by Le Patourel, or did Harbour search him out to act as Class Representative in this case?

Actually BT overtook VOD's price recently, then dropped back. Looks as though BT may overtake VOD's price again next week.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTZJfi4WWjPM24kuDjagPCEAChjrZvMHnR4pJNUiHPKY0dCiPTzNo8D4nwBgX3I-kM6D7PKnh2lzllW/pubchart?oid=987433372&format=interactive

"I hold no ill will towards BT but Fawlty does have a point about vulnerable elderly customers who are confused and can't help themselves due to infirmity of advancing years"

You've just given an example of why the impending class action lawsuit is unlikely to succeed. There was competition for BT's landline service, it just required the customer's to search it out. I understand the moral of your story, highlighting a missed opportunity by BT, but that's a different story.
As far as I can tell, BT aren't trying to compete directly for residential customers under the BT brand, they seem to want brands like Plusnet to push value offerings. It's beginning to look like the BT brand will be used for business offerings, with residential going to the other brands. I use Plusnet for mobile for £7.10 a month, unlimited voice with 2GB data, so I suspect that EE may also be targeting the higher paying business/Data type customers, rather than value offerings.