Member Info for fleccy

"Novavax: Deal agreed to 'fill and finish' 60 million doses in UK"

"The original plan was for this to be done in Europe once the vaccine product was manufactured by plants in the north east.
But a deal has been struck with drug firm GSK to do that here."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-56570168

I realise that this doesn't relate to AZN, but the EU's shenanigans have actually created more jobs here. I'm thinking of emailing Macron to thank him for contributing to British Industry.

"Think they've opted for Nokia."

That's what I've read in various articles too.

"Fleccy in your opinion can bt manage this strike with no impact whatsoever on the service it provides to its customers?"

I didn't work for BT, but I did work in Telecoms. Some of the BT guys will have a better insight than me, but what I can say from experience is that fault rates drop during Freeze periods, like Christmas, etc. The network will tick along while people are on strike, but install's and provisioning will likely be severely delayed. Faults will likely take longer to fix, dependant on various factors. I'm just guessing all this, as I have no idea what contingencies BT may have in place.
I'm not sure what the CWU are up to, as the new technologies require much less staff and equipment, and BT are just moving with the times. Most of the older staff have one foot out of the door, approaching the end of their working lives, and i'd guess are probably the most militant. The younger new starters, will probably do better in the long term if BT is allowed to modernise and slim down.
I was a member of the CWU for 20 years, but their was no collective bargaining in Mercury/C&W/Vodafone. I was treated well, and earned a reasonable wage. Striking wont help the BT staff going forward imo.

"Fleccy. It was a union email and it relates to managers only. The CWU (non managers) situation has not changed as far as I know."

Thought it might be something like that, it seems to be absent from Prospect's news page.

https://members.prospect.org.uk/our-industries/telecoms/employers/bt/

Hi wetherboy, I can't find any online news referencing this. Was this announcement sent out recently to union members specifically, or did you find it online for general release? I realise this only refers to management in the Prospect Union, and could find any reference to this on the Prospect news page either.

Hmmmmm how do I polish a Turd, create an NFT, and store it in a "asset wallet?

https://i.postimg.cc/sfwWrWMT/wallet.jpg

https://www.ledger.com/academy/what-are-nft

I wonder how many NFT's will be created, to store virtual assets that have no use in the real world, and then inflate their values to silly levels.

Must watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrNOYudaMAc

"i am inclined to believe soriot’s own account of why they did it... that it is, it was simply an altruistic action" .

Much about the Oxford Vaccine and AZN process is altruistic, like allowing Serum to manufacture the Vaccine for the good of the emerging world, but why would AZN give up something that's been hard fought for, with the payback for AZN being the building of a Vaccine business.
AZN is a victim of Vaccine nationalism, and producing a vaccine on a "no cost" basis, threatening the high profit culture prevalent in Pharma generally. It's no coincidence that Pfizer and Moderna receive no criticism, and AZN is attacked on a daily basis. In my opinion, the US regulators have ensured that the AZN vaccine has been held back as long as possible, enhancing the rollout of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. I believe similar applies in the EU, but manifesting itself in a different way, with more obvious political motivations.
You can just imagine what would happen if someone found a cheap cure for everything, it would probably never see the light of day, with any leaked headlines quickly trashed and discredited.
The level of attacks against AZN, and the Vaccine, is unprecedented, which must make everyone suspicious. As far as the Oxford vaccine is concerned, all the reports that matter suggest it's Safe and Efficacious, so why have multiple entities tried to destroy it reputationally?
The lesson is, don't produce anything at no cost as there's no profit in altruism, so we'll make sure you suffer reputationally if you try and do the right thing.

At least that's what i'm assuming!!!

"(it does seems a plausible option that AZN might eventually get rid of
their covid vaccine to someone else, as it is potentially a distraction
from AZN management focus on core business and growth drivers.)"

Why would they do that? If you think about it, they weren't a vaccine producer before Covid, so they've built a vaccine business on the back of this. The at cost price of the vaccine would have included the building of new infrastructure, allowing AZN to produce vaccines going forward.

"The second jab has to be the same as the first - No good holding BIO back if you had the AZN first time round"

I think the Jury's out on that. There's been talk of medical trials for mixing vaccines, I think it would be acceptable to give 2nd doses using different vaccines.

"Sources on both sides played down the hopes of any major breakthrough in the tense UK-EU talks, which will centre on Brussels' demand for "reciprocity". "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/26/france-warns-britain-against-trying-blackmail-eu-vaccine-crunch/

When the EU say they want "reciprocity", is that code for?

UK, you are moving far too fast and making us look bad, so we need to do everything possible to slow you down, to allow us to catch you up, or even better overtake you in our vaccination program.

"A co-operative relationship must be found with the UK so that AstraZeneca fulfils its signed commitments with the EU, but we can't accept any sort of blackmail,"
"Mr Breton has told EU ambassadors that Britain's first shot policy means it has no stockpiles of vaccines to give the second shot to the roughly 26 million people who need it."

Hmmm who's blackmailing who?

"Caught up with some guys today and all adamant a strike vote will pass."

I heard the opposite, depends which area of the business you're "guys" work in. A great many aren't up for a strike is what I've heard.

"Whilst I believe the EU are misbehaving there is fault on both sides. Just opinion."

I suppose it comes down to the reasons AZN are struggling to meet supply demands. There are quite a few issues that need publicly airing, instead of the EU pointing the finger of blame squarely at AZN. In the comment sections of articles, i'm seeing many references to the failure of Sanofi in producing a working vaccine.

Some previous articles about Sanofi:
"Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will be awarded up to $2.1 billion by the U.S. Departments of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Defense (DoD) toward development and manufacturing of the recombinant protein-based COVID-19 vaccine being produced by the companies, they and the U.S. government said."

https://www.genengnews.com/news/sanofi-gsk-pursue-covid-19-vaccine-trials-with-2-1b-from-warp-speed/

"Covid-19: Sanofi backpedals on US vaccine priority after French outrage"

https://www.france24.com/en/20200514-france-says-unacceptable-for-sanofi-to-give-coronavirus-vaccine-to-us-first

"The EU’s negotiations with Johnson & Johnson are among the most advanced but have yet to conclude amid a back-and-forth over how to share liability costs if the potential vaccine showed unexpected side-effects, two of the officials told Reuters.

Johnson & Johnson had no immediate comment.
France's Sanofi is negotiating to supply 300 million doses of the potential vaccine it is developing with British drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline Plc GSK.L to the EU and wants an immediate upfront payment for the entire stock, two officials said.
But the EU wants to pay in tranches and delay some payments until the vaccine has passed large clinical trials, the officials said."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-eu-vaccines-exclus-idUSKCN24S1YQ

"Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline have agreed a deal with the European Commission to provide up to 300 million doses of their potential COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
According to GSK, the EU will provide upfront funding to support the scale-up of the companies’ manufacturing capabilities in Europe. The final agreement marks a key milestone in protecting the EU population from COVID-19."

http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/sanofi,_gsk_ink_deal_with_eu_for_300_million_covid-19_vaccine_doses_1351087

"One of the world’s leading vaccine manufacturers has suffered a major setback in its work to produce a Covid-19 vaccine. The problem will push the timeline for deployment of Sanofi Pasteur’s vaccine — if it is approved — from the first half of 2021 into the second half of the year, the company said Friday."

https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/11/sanofi-suffers-major-setback-in-development-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/

My point in posting these, is to highlight that all Governments knew some vaccines may fail, and supply could be intermittent. It appears the EU are trying to mask their own procurement failures by suggesting that AZN supply numbers were written in stone, when they

continued:

"In contrast an Re above 1 would mean that the outbreak would increase exponentially.
However, experts have warned that without up-to-date and comprehensive data the reproduction number is a “blunt monitoring tool.”
Azra Ghani, professor in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, said, “At present we are estimating both R and the infection rate from data on hospitalisations. These form only a small fraction of all infections and represent an estimate of transmission that occurred 1-2 weeks earlier—and are therefore a blunt monitoring tool.
“Models or model based estimates (such as R) can be helpful in interpreting data trends but should never be viewed as a surrogate for good data. Only with extensive surveillance and rapid testing of suspect cases in the wider community, in hospitals, and in care homes, and other places at high risk, can we be truly confident that the epidemic is in decline and that it is safe to relax measures.”"

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1891#:~:text=The%20R%20number%20could%20refer,existing%20immunity%20in%20the%20community.

"There is much confusion about what is meant by the R value."

I have to admit that I hadn't looked into the specifics of the R number, there's a good article in thebmj.

"What is the R number?
The R number could refer to either the basic reproduction number, known as the R nought or zero (R0), or the effective reproduction number (Re).

R0 describes how many people each infected person will infect on average, assuming that there is no pre-existing immunity in the community. It is often estimated using three factors: the duration of contagiousness after a person becomes infected, the likelihood of infection in each contact between a susceptible person and an infectious person or vector, and the frequency of contact.
Re is the number of people that can be infected by an individual at any specific time, and it changes as the population becomes increasingly immunised, either through individuals gaining immunity after being infected or through vaccination, and also as people die. Re can also be affected by people’s behaviour, such as by social distancing. R0 and Re are often confused or just referred to as the R number.1
What are the R0 and Re for SARS-CoV-2?
SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that has caused the covid-19 pandemic, has an estimated R0 of around 2.63, says the University of Oxford’s COVID-19 Evidence Service Team. However, estimates vary between 0.4 and 4.6. This is not unusual, as R0 estimates often vary, with different models and data being used to calculate it. Measles, for example, has been assigned R0 values of between 3.7 and 203.03.2
The Re will also vary across different countries and between regions. The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, said on 10 May that the Re in England was currently “between 0.5 and 0.9, but potentially just below 1.” In Scotland, first minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was between 0.7 and 1.
In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute reported on 9 May that the Re had risen to 1.1 just days after the country began to ease lockdown measures. The same effect was also seen in Denmark when it reopened primary schools in April: the Re rose from 0.6 to 0.9.
Is the Re important?
Many politicians have pointed to the Re as an important measure to determine how well their country is responding to the pandemic and what can happen next. German chancellor Angela Merkel appeared on television to explain the reasoning behind her government’s strategy, referring to the reproduction number.3 Meanwhile Boris Johnson told the public on 10 May that easing lockdown in England would depend on whether the reproduction number could be kept down.
It is often presented in simple terms: if the Re is above 1 then the outbreak is expected to continue, but if it can be reduced to less than 1 the outbreak will end. This is because if each person who is infected in turn infects less than one person, the outbreak will reduce; an Re of 0.5 would mean that 10 infected people would infect five others, who would then infect another 2.5."

"Reproductive R for CV19 is around 3 that means one needs a population immunity"

The R rate is a variable, not fixed. The UK currently has an R rate between 0.7 and 0.9, whereas France has an R rate of 1.18 and climbing, in fact many EU countries now have an R rate above 1, which doesn't bode well for them. Clearly the R rate is relevant during a vaccination program, but of little significance once everyone's vaccinated.

Looks like the EU has taught AZN a valuable lesson, don't offer a vaccine at cost price. Clearly the EU don't mind criticising something essentially given away.

"EU attacks on AstraZeneca may prompt it to raise prices and abandon its decision not to profit from its coronavirus vaccine, according to a leading member of the team of scientists that delivered the breakthrough."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/25/astrazeneca-may-raise-vaccine-prices-eu-attacks-warns-oxfords/

"but then again .. Plonker Brexiters voted for a plonker PM so what else in new?"

You just trashed any credibility, you're obviously part of the saddo cult still grieving about Brexit. Just wipe away your tears and move on, you might see things more clearly and get a better grasp on reality. There's nothing wrong with the AZN/Oxford vaccine, I've had it myself.
As far as efficacy, and herd immunity, obviously the more population receiving a vaccination the better the chances of reaching herd immunity. For all of the EU's efforts to derail the UK's immunisation program, by trashing the AZN/Oxford vaccine, the UK is steaming ahead, with individuals happy to receive the AZN vaccination. The EU on the other hand shoots a toe off every time a prominent politician opens their mouth, increasing hesitancy within the block and having little impact on the UK; It would be funny, if it wasn't so tragic for EU citizens. The way things are going I'll be surprised if the EU ever reach a good level of immunity, with the amount of hesitancy prevalent within EU countries.
As far as the EU blocking vaccine exports to the UK, it would be another toe shot off, as in all likelihood the Government would have to maintain the ban on international travel over the summer, further damaging tourism in Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc.

"Over the short term maybe, but viruses adapt, and so a vaccine peddled as a treatment doesn't stop transmission and mutation for which a virus will be guided by a vaccine to find a way around ... so your statement is not valid over the longer term."

It isn't being peddled as a treatment, it has at least 76% efficacy, when the global standard is anything over 50% efficacy. A vaccine providing 76% efficacy is easily enough to provide herd immunity across general populations, "so your statement is not valid".
Lets clear something up, a vaccine is either effective, or not, and the likely difference between viral vector and MRNA vaccines will likely be insignificant across populations. The price, storage, and transportation differences between the MRNA and viral vector vaccines is highly significant, making the MRNA vaccines unfeasible for third world countries.
MRNA vaccines are new, so the jury is out, and it'll be interesting to watch a country like Israel to assess long term efficacy.