Member Info for fleccy

"The risk of contracting blood clots is about the same in Pfizer ‘s and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines as in AstraZeneca ‘s, according to a study released on Thursday."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/pfizer-and-moderna-covid-19-vaccines-also-trigger-blood-clots-study-finds-51618488102

"by that you mean BT is worth more than 3x the value as represented by the current SP?"

If a combined VM/O2 is worth £31 Billion, then BT must be worth at least 3 times it's current value. A VM/O2 combination would generate revenue of £11 Billion to £12 Billion annually, whereas BT currently generates around £22 Billion revenue, so approximately twice as much. BT is in the midst of a £12 Billion FTTP rollout, but their long term lease liabilities will reduce as they hand back redundant buildings to Telereal Trillium. BT is aiming to lower its gross cost base by 2 billion pounds annually from 2025 onwards, which will support the dividend, also contributing to the cost of the rollout and site closure costs. BT isn't currently growing revenue, but the upgrades will allow them to cut costs massively going forward. A big unknown is the revenue generation around 5G and IOT, but projections for worldwide IOT revenue is $314.6 Billion by 2030, so BT may see revenue growth there.
Of course all this is my opinion DYOR.

The way things are going, most EU countries will struggle to get on the Green list. The reputations of the adenovirus vector vaccines has been trashed, undeservedly in my opinion. If the EU suspend the J&J vaccine, in tandem with all the restrictions applied to the AZN Vaccine, analysts are saying that the EU wont reach herd immunity until December. I have my own views about the politicisation of vaccines, and atrocious way some EU politicians have behaved, but all this uncertainty will deter UK foreign holiday bookings.
I imagine this will affect EU internal travel as well, but time will tell.

"The UK’s competition watchdog has provisionally cleared the £31bn merger of Virgin Media and O2, paving the way for the creation of a “national champion” to challenge BT."

Indeed, but it comes down to the narrative presented by the all powerful vested interests. The combined VM/O2 entity, assuming they spend £10 billion on infrastructure investment, will have total debt of around £28 Billion; The combined VM/O2 revenue will be around £12 Billion, and yet we're lead to believe that the new company will be worth twice as much as BT. Most of VM's network uses Hybrid Fibre Coax, so the cabinets need to be powered and you're limited on the services you can provide to end users.
To upgrade to 10GB services, VM will likely have to upgrade to DOCSIS 4, or change to a PON network. Because Fibre is capable of carrying terabits of bandwidth, it's easy to add bespoke symmetrical services to existing PON networks using out of band wavelengths, something impossible on HFC. VM's local loop infrastructure, will be a generation behind BT/Openreach within current VM franchise areas, once BT's FTTP rollout's completed. What this means is that VM's network will require more maintenance, because their street cabinets contain powered equipment. HFC can be thought of as a souped up form of FTTC.
BT will massively reduce their building footprint, as their new PON network will have longer range, no on street power requirements, and far less on street maintenance, as it's from the exchange to the premises.
If the VM/O2 combination is worth £31 Billion, then BT must be worth at least £50 Billion.

"Will take a long time to get accurate data on dosing regimens? And trials are hard to organise and expensive."

AZN already have partial results from last years phase 3 error. The way things are heading, adenovirus vector vaccines will be abandoned with a move to MRNA, so they need to resolve this issue asap. From articles, it appears that the MRNA vaccines give a lower initial immune response, maybe that's where they should be focusing. No doubt the scientists will know better than us, but they wont say anything until they've tested it to death and 100% sure.

On CNBC in a few minutes.

The J&J vaccine is another of the cheap vaccines, which might threaten the ongoing profits of the MRNA vaccines. My non qualified guess is that these blood clots are due to a high immune response to the first dose, and maybe they should look at reducing the potency of the first dose in AZN's case. J&J could possibly move to a two dose regime and reduce the strength of the vaccine. I don't see how the adenovirus vector manufacturers have anything to lose from trying a lower dose regime.

Logged 1 minute after UT:

2021-04-13 16:36:14.403 GBX 151.519 1000000 1515190 Off-Book SINT BENC TNCP

Probably from earlier in the day, but a very round number.

"It’s all outside existing franchise area."

You could be right, but it makes no difference, as Openreach are rapidly Fibering out VM's franchise areas too. HFC working is less upgradeable and inefficient than the PON model, so VM will have to look at that, at some point in the future, irrespective of eventual upgrades to DOCSIS 4, if VM decide to do that which they probably wont.

"Summary
The whitepaper presents six key points (and a bonus one) that cable operators
need to understand and consider when selecting the right step forward in
upgrading their networks.

Point #1 – Investment and return
Fibre deployment yields lower TCO and better return – at about the same cost as
migration to DOCSIS 3.1.

Point #2 – Sustainable investment cycle
DOCSIS requires a constant, unsustainable investment into weak future prospects.

Point #3 – Operating and maintenance costs
Maintenance and operating costs for DOCSIS are higher than for PON.

Point #4 – Services and revenue
PON enables a wider range of services than DOCSIS, and generates more revenue.

Point #5 – Migration to PON
Migration to PON is sustainable and non-disruptive.

Point #6 – Migration to DOCSIS 3.1
Migration to DOCSIS 3.1 is a continuous service disruption.

Bonus point – Customer perception
Customers’ perception and experience should never be underestimated

https://www.iskratel.com/ru/files/default/Documents/White-Papers/EN/Iskratel-GPON-vs-DOCSIS-3.1-in-Six-Simple-Points-WP.pdf

Project lightening was announced in 2015, and hasn't exactly been lightening fast. Outside their Franchise areas they're heavily dependent on Openreach PIA, so it isn't like they're doing it all themselves. Openreach are passing around 42000 properties per week, and taking orders across multiple ISP's. Don't get me wrong, I think VM/O2 will be the number 2 provider in the UK, but it doesn't necessarily mean that they'll prosper at BT's expense.

"Virgin don't have any ducts to speak of. They plough all their stuff in so nobody can use their none existant ducts. Highly anti competitive but best left there."

Maybe for the cabinet to the home connections, but I would think the cabinets would be connected by ducting. Without access to Openreach's and VM's cable map data, it would be impossible to guess spare capacity, and geographic coverage.

"Might be wrong, but I don’t think there is any case where OFCOm would or could force access to Virgin ducts etc"

Openreach wouldn't need to utilise VM's ducts, as Openreach infrastructure covers the whole of the UK anyway. If BT did want to utilise VM infrastructure, it would likely be under commercial terms, or as some kind of swap agreement. Even if VM were serious about this, Openreach have a massive head start with a growing customer base using the PIA product. Say you're a council, with lots of offices, why use VM when you can connect all your sites over PIA?
Telecommunications is on the cusp of massive changes, like never seen before. Ten years from now PSTN will be gone, most will be using converged services, and most businesses will run their software on the cloud. It isn't all about Openreach, or VM/O2, there's much more going on in all aspects of Telecommunications. The first UK Automatic Telephone Exchange was brought into service in 1912, at the end of 2025 UK Telephone exchanges will be consigned to history.

"Don’t forget they would be starting this with over £17b debt, add in the costs of the hardware and its installation."

Plus £10 Billion they're planning to borrow for infrastructure spend, total £28 Billion of debt. If I remember correctly, the combined VM/O2 company will have a combined revenue of £12-£13 Billion a year, based on current earnings. The debt isn't an issue in itself, as long as it can be serviced by earnings, but it means that VM/O2 will need t watch its profit margins. What's clear is that VM/O2 will be heavily reliant on Openreach infrastructure, the same can't be said the other way around.

In summary:
New VM/O2 venture will start out with £18 billion of long-term debt.
Planning to borrow £10 Billion for infrastructure spend.

"“Pfizer was €12, then it became €15.50. Contracts are now being signed for 900 million vaccines at a price of €19.50,” the PM said, to illustrate his claim that prices are rising sharply.
“Now we are most afraid of the French variant. So many more variants will appear … Because €19.50 for 900 million will cost nearly €18 billion. First with a jab, then a second, third and fourth,” Borissov continued, adding that experts must set much higher budgets for vaccines in the upcoming budget.""

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/bulgarian-pm-price-of-pfizer-vaccine-jumps-from-e12-to-e1950/

What stands out for me is:

"The Applicant intends to utilise Virgin Media’s wholesale products and the Openreach Physical Infrastructure Access (PIA) service [existing cable ducts and poles] to deploy parts of its network in Virgin Media’s and BT’s infrastructure. Where this is not possible, the Applicant will deploy its own infrastructure, including on public land.
The Applicant is willing to provide wholesale access to its network to other telecoms providers, subject to reaching satisfactory commercial terms.”"

Since PIA is a wholesale infrastructure product, Openreach/BT will get their cut of any VM wholesale business, thereby reducing VM's profit margin. Here's the thing, VM, and others, have little choice but to use Openreach network. If VM really had the chance to compete with Openreach directly, then Ofcom would have to remove any regulatory shackles. Much of this is just noise, and doesn't pose any threat to Openreach's business model. I'm not sure why VM are even bothering, considering the geographic dominance of Openreach, and the fact that Openreach are already offering wholesale PIA services to councils and other operators. I'm also not sure what "satisfactory commercial terms" will be competitive against BT/Openreach's regulated product offerings.

"France's Europe Minister Clement Beaune said Sunday that Turkey had set a "trap" for European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen by forcing her to sit off to the side on a visit to Ankara, in a photo-op faux pas quickly dubbed 'sofagate"

It's Sofa King Great
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Tk2uG4oB3Q

Personally I think they're all Cork Soakers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Deqx-Xb-yHY

More Gems from Monsieur Beaune.

“Manifestly, they (AstraZeneca) did not honour their commitments and thus, in a certain way, they were mocking us Europeans,”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B81U7Vunhuc

You put your old folks in
Your old folks out
AZ in, AZ out, In, out, in, out
You shake it all about
You do the EU cokey
And you turn around
That's what it's all about
Woah, the EU cokey
Woah, the EU cokey
Woah, the EU cokey
Knees bent
Arms stretched
Ra-ra-ra
You put your young folks in
Your young folks out
AZ in, AZ out, In, out, in, out
You shake it all about
You do the EU cokey
And you turn around
That's what it's all about
Woah, the EU cokey
Woah, the EU cokey
Woah, the EU cokey
Knees bent
Arms stretched
Ra-ra-ra

"From memory it’s over 75% of small investors lose money but if you believe these BBs it’s the reverse."

You're confusing normal investing with trading CFD's.

I've stopped reading the Daily Mail articles in relation to the vaccines. They seem to be on a crusade to scare people off the AZN vaccine imo. It's almost like they're promoting the MRNA vaccines. I'm hoping the MHRA authorise the Novavax vaccine asap, if only to maintain the UK vaccination rollout momentum. When this is over, and the dust settles, they need to review the overall side effects worldwide of all the vaccines, as there seems to be selective reporting going on currently. The rhetoric coming out of the EU member states is aimed at damaging the UK's vaccination program imo, as they perceive that we're overly dependent on the AZN vaccine.
I don't think it's paranoia, to suggest that some French politicians have gone a bit mental as a result of the UK's perceived vaccine rollout success, in the shadow of Brexit. Some of the statements made by Macron, Clément Beaune, and Thierry Breton have shown a veiled hatred for anything British. I suspect they bite their tongues when they speak, to ensure their venom isn't directly aimed to hit us in the eyes.

Macron (No need to translate)
"Today we think that it is quasi-ineffective for people over 65,"
"What I can tell you officially today is that the early results we have are not encouraging for 60 to 65-year-old people concerning AstraZeneca,"

Clément Beaune (Translation-We know best, we wont vaccinate over 65's with AZN vaccine)
"Beaune highlighted how the United Kingdom had not limited AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine to those aged under 65, as has been the case in France and other European Union countries."

Thierry Breton (Translation-We'll beat UK to finish line, so there)
"Thierry Breton said that “zero” doses made in the EU would be sanctioned for delivery to the UK until AstraZeneca fulfilled its contract with the bloc.
The French former finance minister said that after a slow start, an “extremely rapid” increase in European production was now enabling EU nations to step up their vaccination programmes,
Comparing the EU and UK programmes to “the fable of the tortoise and the hare”, he said European programmes were forging ahead while Britain’s jab campaign appeared to be flagging. He suggested that the UK should be grateful to European workers supplying its vaccine programme."

They're going through the four phases of grief, looks as though they are currently in phase 3.

Shock and Numbness: In order to emotionally survive the initial shock of the loss, the grieving person feels numb and shut down.
Yearning and Searching: This phase is characterized by a variety of feelings, including sadness, anger, anxiety, and confusion.
Disorganization and Despair: This phase is marked by initial acceptance of the reality of the loss. The grieving person may experience feelings of apathy, anger, despair, and hopelessness.
Reorganization and Recovery: In the final phase, the grieving person begins to return to a new state of "normal." Intense feelings such as sadness, anger, and d