Member Info for fleccy

”Pity you never invested"

I've never been interested in any travel & leisure stocks. My current interest is due to Covid, and the market treatment of Airline stocks in general. The reason RYA looks interesting, is due to the price movement. Looking at RYA's current share price, you'd never know we're in the midst of a pandemic, which seems very American lol. The Travel stocks are currently being pumped, due to the reported traffic light system touted as allowing international travel, but the testing requirements will be expensive. As you may know, due to your recent flights, PCR tests are over £100 per person with multiple tests required for both way travel, which is almost a de facto travel ban for most. I don't remember the Jab and Go ads mentioning that testing for travel will be compulsory, whether or not you've been vaccinated.
International travel is going to be severely curtailed, no matter what happens with vaccinations. Advertising a cheap flight is ok, but people also need telling about the high price of required compulsory testing, with Airlines forced to publicise the testing costs at the ticket point of sale.
If the Government do their job right, everyone will become aware of high costs associated with international travel, while covid persists, it's no good resorts just saying they're open for vaccinated holidaymakers.

There can't be much upside left for RYA, as it's already close to its 52 week high of €17.60, and approximately only 8% short of its all time high in 2017. RYA is overvalued on any current fundamental metric. with a lot of positive sentiment priced in.

"Totally agree. This is a scandalous waste of money."

This announcement is coinciding with a significant tail off in vaccinations. The current daily rate is below 100,000, it hasn't been that low since before the 11th January. The 2nd dose vaccinations also appear to be tailing off. I believe this tail off in vaccinations was expected, and highlighted in previous Government announcements, but I don't believe this twice weekly testing will achieve anything, just my opinion.

"Everyone in the country will be encouraged to take two Covid tests a week to show they are not infected, Boris Johnson will announce on Monday."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/04/04/public-will-urged-take-covid-test-twice-week-lockdown-rules/

Am I wrong in thinking that this is a total waste of money? Personally I wont be bothering, as most of these test kits will end up adding to the countries waste problems. If the Government want to spend money, then why not throw more into vaccine production facilities. In my opinion, this is a bad idea and most people wont bother. I agree that families with children, going to school, should regularly test where the children aren't vaccinated. Vaccinations are the way out of this, not testing imo.
Another thing, I can't believe that they're talking about international travel, while the pandemic is still a big issue. International travel should be severely restricted for the rest of this year imo, and not opened up before the all clear is given everywhere. Most people will be put off from international travel anyway, due to the cost of associated tests and possible restrictions.

My opinion, In summary:
Any available cash should be invested in vaccinations.
I wont be bothering with the two free tests a week.
I wont even think about booking a foreign holiday this year.

But that's just me.

"One controversy after another, the US has stopped the AZN vaccine production. We shall see how this will affect AZN SP on Tuesday, what a disaster!!"

Are you talking about the stopping of AZN vaccine production at the Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore? As far as I know this isn't AZN's fault, the plant had two contracts to produce the J&J and AZN vaccines, the mix up was due to the plant owners, and nothing to do with AZN or J&J. The US governments decision to hand over the plant to J&J, and stop production of the AZN vaccine, was a political decision and shouldn't affect AZN as the AZN vaccine is produced for no profit anyway.

I'm in no way medically qualified, and know nothing about vaccines, or epidemiology, but I've watched the various reports about vaccines since May last year. During the phase 3 trial last year, a "serendipitous" error showed that a half first dose of the AZN vaccine resulted in a higher efficacy than a full first dose.

"About 3,000 participants were given the half dose and then a full dose four weeks later, and this regime appeared to provide the most protection or efficacy in the trial - around 90%.
In the larger group of nearly 9,000 volunteers, who were given two full doses also four weeks apart, efficacy was 62%."

"One idea is that a low then high dose shot may be a better mimic of a coronavirus infection and lead to a better immune response.
But it is possible that the volunteers who got the half doses are somewhat different to those who got two big shots."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55086927

"The half dose has an advantage of dose sparing, but the vast majority of the data that we have is around two full doses. For the regulator, that’s the compelling data package. The downside [to a half dose strategy] is that it’s a bit more complicated to deliver for a practitioner who has to decide whether this is a half dose person or a full dose person."

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n86

Maybe two full doses was right for the older age groups, maybe they should look at half first doses for younger people. The half dose will likely have a lower immune response and higher efficacy, but the previous trial result was disregarded due to scientific rigidity imo. Sometimes you have to try something different to get around a problem that wasn't previously envisaged, maybe the first half dose is an easy try out, it wont do any harm, but may reap multiple benefits.

"I did chuckle at the report of some rare "side-effects"
...alcohol poisoning (2), libido increased (1), libido decreased (1), and one remarkable report of a pregnancy following vaccination."

I did have side effects from the AZN vaccine, and posted them on the 19th March at 14:02. I didn't bother reporting the side effects, but they were the worse side effects, I can remember, having from any previous vaccinations. I'm all for the AZN vaccine, but it did have side effects in my particular case, and it doesn't put me off having a 2nd dose. Here is a copy and paste of my entry on the 19th March:

"I had my AZN vaccination on the 10th March, in the morning. It came with side effects though. In the evening my face felt quite flushed and I was a bit feverish and headachy. Because of the headache I had to take some Ibuprofen around 3am, which helped me get off to sleep, but I felt tired so stayed in bed until lunch time. I still felt under the weather the following night, but took two ibuprofen around 10pm and managed to sleep through the night. I felt better the next day. I think my side effects were more on the extreme side.
I would still take the AZN vaccine over the Pfizer, or Moderna vaccinations, even with the side effects, and I'm somewhat miffed by the EU's constant criticism of the AZN/Oxford vaccine."

Astrazeneca
"COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca analysis print
Report Run Date: 28-Mar-2021
Data Lock Date: 21-Mar-2021 19:00:03"

"TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 377487
TOTAL REPORTS 99817
TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS 421"

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975786/COVID-19_AstraZeneca_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf

Pfizer
"COVID-19 mRNA Pfizer- BioNTech vaccine analysis print
Report Run Date: 28-Mar-2021
Data Lock Date: 21-Mar-2021 19:00:03"

"TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 116627
TOTAL REPORTS 40883
TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS 283"

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975808/COVID-19_mRNA_Pfizer-BioNTech_Vaccine_Analysis_Print.pdf

Unspecified (Vaccine not specified)
"COVID-19 vaccine brand unspecified analysis print
Report Run Date: 29-Mar-2021
Data Lock Date: 21-Mar-2021 19:00:03
All UK spontaneous reports received up to and including 21/03/21 for COVID-19
vaccines where the brand has not been specified"

"TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 1231
TOTAL REPORTS 379
TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS 9"

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975807/COVID-19_vaccine_brand_unspecified_analysis_print.pdf

I can't find the statistics for the individual vaccinations, so I can only guess on how many Pfizer and Astrazeneca doses have been given. Looking at the Government reports, and summarising the totals we have:

AZN "TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 377487"
Pfizer "TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 116627"
Unspecified "TOTAL REACTIONS FOR DRUG 1231 "
AZN - (Pfizer + unspecified) = 259,629

AZN "TOTAL REPORTS 99817"
Pfizer "TOTAL REPORTS 40883"
unspecified "TOTAL REPORTS 379"
AZN - (Pfizer + unspecified) = 58,555

AZN "TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS 421"
Pfizer "TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS 283"
unspecified "TOTAL FATAL OUTCOME REPORTS 9"
AZN - (Pfizer + unspecified) = 129

Looking at the above, the AZN Vaccine has 58,555 more reports, with 259,629 more total reactions, and 129 more fatal outcomes.
News reports are saying that 18.1 million doses AZN doses have been given, and the Government website states that 31,147,444 first doses/4,513,458 2nd doses given. If you were just looking at the statistics, in isolation, the AZN vaccine does appear to have more associated reports, reactions, and deaths associated.
I think the MHRA need to get on top of this and look at the reasons behind this. Might be worth looking at last years phase 3 trials, and considering a half dose regime, maybe a full dose causes too strong immune responses.

"Netherlands blew a chance to invest in AstraZeneca vaccine: Report"

"When the University of Oxford asked the Netherlands for a ten-million euro investment at the Halix vaccine plant in Leiden, it opened the door for the country, and likely the entire European Union, to gain access to millions more Covid-19 vaccine doses compared to what AstraZeneca delivered to the EU in the first quarter of 2021. The university's scientists were days away from securing the backing of the pharmaceutical firm for its AZD 1222 vaccine in late April when they approached the Netherlands with the request, anonymous sources told broadcaster NOS.

The Halix facility was already under contract to produce the Oxford vaccine even as clinical trials intensified. "There will probably be a huge demand for vaccines if they successfully pass the tests. Most likely, the quantities of available vaccines will be limited for several months," a letter from the university, received by Prime Minister Mark Rutte, stated. "To avoid major delays, production capacity must be increased now."

The broadcaster viewed key elements of the letter, which said that the investment would be used to reduce bottlenecks at the Halix facility. By that point, the British government had already committed to a 25-million euro investment at the Halix plant in Leiden, making it possible to produce 200-liter barrels of a vaccine.

The Dutch investment would have allowed the facility to scale up so it could deliver thousand-liter drums."

https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/30/netherlands-blew-chance-invest-astrazeneca-vaccine-report

I'm not anti vax, but I'm thinking we're getting the Sheeple treatment. I watched the video, and the girls symptoms were reminiscent of something many students come down with, I think it's called Long Burn Out.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/evidence-suggests-children-suffer-long-083956807.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56591429

"Sheungy, I think it is YOU who want to live in a world without regulators when potentially harmful medicines could be freely sold, and the profits maximised."

The AZN vaccine is being produced on a no profit basis, so profit doesn't come into this.
There's a lot of talk about this in Europe, but they have no idea what's causing these so called Vaccine-Induced Prothrombotic Immune Thrombocytopenia (VIPIT) cases. The EMA are looking into it, with initial guidance stating there's currently no proof of a link. I'm all for reporting bad news, but they should report the adverse reactions to the MRNA vaccinations too, not single out AZN. The likely reason that Pfizer and Moderna adverse events aren't reported is to ensure that anti vax sentiment isn't spread across all vaccines. I notice Pfizer are now saying it's ok to give teenagers a Pfizer vaccination, which is clearly aimed at revenue generation, not the greater good, imo.
The EU have clearly made a complete mash up of their vaccination program, and diverted press criticism by targeting AZN. It wont help the EU politicians when it comes around to elections, most people can see through subterfuge.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/prac-recommendation/signal-assessment-report-embolic-thrombotic-events-smq-covid-19-vaccine-chadox1-s-recombinant-covid_en.pdf

"The relevant point for AZN is they may need to do business with the Galamaya Institute to get over the viral vector issue?"

Are you referring to a lack of manufacturing capacity?

I suspect the reasoning behind Merkel and Macron talking with Russia, about utilising Sputnik V, is an attempt to pressure the US into releasing vaccines to the EU. Once the Covid 19 pandemic is over, hopefully there'll be a day of reckoning for all parties. I hope there's a forensic dissection of all analysis, announcements, and vested interest decisions across the board. All the statistics across all vaccines should be scrutinised and published. If there's an issue with the AZN vaccine, then that should be accepted and the regulators congratulated, but if politics and financial gain have conspired to damage the AZN vaccine's reputation, then the relevant vested interests should be named and shamed.

"The EU have made an absolute horlicks of situation."

With Macron and Merkel reportedly now talking to Russia about using Sputnik V, there's a lot of underhand politicking going on imo. I'm not sure what's happening in some EU member states, it appears that Brexit has made them go mental, with the UK's vaccine success finally sending them over the edge. The paranoia demonstrated recently is unprecedented, with Italian special police raiding a factory, flash visits to vaccine production plants, and accusations against AZN and the UK indicative of a major witch hunt. The EU member state politicians appear to have lost the plot, I wonder if they've started reaching for the Prozac yet.

"The EU have made an absolute horlicks of situation."

With Macron and Merkel reportedly now talking to Russia about using Sputnik V, there's a lot of underhand politicking going on imo. I'm not sure what's happening in some EU member states, it appears that Brexit has made them go mental, with the UK's vaccine success finally sending them over the edge. The paranoia demonstrated recently is unprecedented, with Italian special police raiding a factory, flash visits to vaccine production plants, and accusations against AZN and the UK indicative of a major witch hunt. The EU member state politicians appear to have lost the plot, I wonder if they've started reaching for the Prozac yet.

When the UK was rolling out the AZN vaccine to the over 50's/60's/70's the EU politicians and regulatory agencies said they couldn't recommend it for older age groups, as there wasn't sufficient data. Macron even described it as quasi ineffective for over 65's adding that some say over 60's.
Now that the UK has given the first dose to most of the over 60's and is gearing up to do the under 50's, the EU politicians are saying that it's unsuitable for under 55's, but OK for over 55's.
you couldn't make it up, I wonder if Harry Enfield is now writing the EU vaccination policy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSZLGAuJTLQ&list=RDIRfluaMKoOY&start_radio=1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ceuYWujHpg&t=36s

"Now its a matter of choice , if you refuse to give people a choice of vaccine , then you may as well tell them, you can only have a Fiat Panda to drive."

What happens if you choose the vaccine that disagrees with you genetically? From what I've been reading, there's nothing to choose between any of them. Personally I wouldn't want an MRNA vaccine, and I'm happy to report that I've already received my first dose of the AZN/Oxford Vaccine. The main reason I'm against the MRNA vaccines is the high per dose cost, when at cost alternatives are available. Clearly Moderna and Pfizer have their own issues according to the article pasted below.

"Clots in the U.S.

In the U.S., a Miami physician died following complications of immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) after his first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. ITP is a rare autoimmune condition in which the body generates autoantibodies to its own platelets, resulting in low platelet counts, blood clots, and bleeding if the platelet count drops very low. About 50,000 adults are diagnosed with ITP in the U.S. per year. Risk is increased in young women and people with other autoimmune conditions.

In a case series, James Bussel, MD, and colleagues reviewed 20 reports of thrombocytopenia after receipt of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. Bussel is professor emeritus of pediatrics at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City who has published extensively on ITP. His group found that 17 of these patients did not have pre-existing thrombocytopenia. Patients' median age was 41 and 11 were women.

"It is not surprising that 17 possible de novo cases would be detected among the well over 20 million people who have received at least one dose of these two vaccines in the United States as of February 2, 2021," they wrote in the American Journal of Hematology. "The incidence of an immune-mediated thrombocytopenia post SARS-CoV-2 vaccination appears either less than or roughly comparable to what would be seen if the cases were coincidental following vaccination, perhaps enhanced somewhat by heightened surveillance of symptomatic patients."

However, they note that "all but one" of these cases occurred after the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

"One would assume that if the vaccination was unrelated to development of ITP, case occurrences would divide more evenly between the two doses," they write. "...[W]e cannot exclude the possibility that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have the potential to trigger de novo ITP (including clinically undiagnosed cases), albeit very rarely.""

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91813

"I don’t necessarily agree with your analysis of a strike. Not until someone can tell me the various service level agreements etc with other operators don’t count during a strike?"

Without getting a lawyer to read through the various SLA's, it's not something that can be known. I would think that BT's SLA's will have clauses detailing circumstances outside of managements control, such as cataclysmic events and dare I say strikes.

"Contract for BT Managed WAN Services
Conditions"

"15 Force Majeure: Matters Beyond the
Reasonable Control of Either Party
Neither Party shall be liable for failure or delay in the
performance of its obligations caused by or resulting
from force majeure including events that are
unpredictable, unforeseeable or irresistible, such as
any extremely severe weather, flood, landslide,
earthquake, storm, lightning, fire, subsidence,
epidemic, acts of terrorism, biological warfare,
outbreak of military hostilities (whether or not war is
declared), riot, explosions, strikes or other labour
unrest, civil disturbance, sabotage, expropriation by
governmental authorities and any other act or any
event that is outside the reasonable control of the
concerned Party."

https://business.bt.com/content/dam/terms/it-solutions-support/bt1190.pdf

"For that type of project I would imagine it would be cost efficient to reduce direct 'skilled' employees and supplement with contractors."

"Kelly Group awarded new work from Openreach to support the UK’s biggest ultrafast broadband build
Company will help to build ultra-reliable ‘Full Fibre’ broadband to thousands of homes and businesses in Sussex"

https://www.kelly.co.uk/blog/kelly-group-awarded-new-contract-supporting-openreach/bp20/

Apparently Canada are now recommending that the AZN vaccine isn't given to under 55's. It appears that the Pfizer and Moderna jabs may have issues, but you'd be hard pressed to find out about them in the mainstream press.

"Clots in the U.S.

In the U.S., a Miami physician died following complications of immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) after his first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. ITP is a rare autoimmune condition in which the body generates autoantibodies to its own platelets, resulting in low platelet counts, blood clots, and bleeding if the platelet count drops very low. About 50,000 adults are diagnosed with ITP in the U.S. per year. Risk is increased in young women and people with other autoimmune conditions.

In a case series, James Bussel, MD, and colleagues reviewed 20 reports of thrombocytopenia after receipt of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. Bussel is professor emeritus of pediatrics at Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City who has published extensively on ITP. His group found that 17 of these patients did not have pre-existing thrombocytopenia. Patients' median age was 41 and 11 were women.

"It is not surprising that 17 possible de novo cases would be detected among the well over 20 million people who have received at least one dose of these two vaccines in the United States as of February 2, 2021," they wrote in the American Journal of Hematology. "The incidence of an immune-mediated thrombocytopenia post SARS-CoV-2 vaccination appears either less than or roughly comparable to what would be seen if the cases were coincidental following vaccination, perhaps enhanced somewhat by heightened surveillance of symptomatic patients."

However, they note that "all but one" of these cases occurred after the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

"One would assume that if the vaccination was unrelated to development of ITP, case occurrences would divide more evenly between the two doses," they write. "...[W]e cannot exclude the possibility that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have the potential to trigger de novo ITP (including clinically undiagnosed cases), albeit very rarely.""

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91813