Member Info for fleccy

"Just three days after he received the Pfizer vaccine, Dr. Gregory Michael, 56, of Miami Beach developed symptoms for immune thrombocytopenia, a rare blood disorder that stops the creation of platelets, which are necessary for clotting."

"Health experts, however, are asking the public not to rush to any conclusions about the vaccine - over 31 million people in the United States have received at least one dose of the vaccine - and only 37 people have developed such a disorder"

"in a statement to the New York Times, Pfizer said they were aware of the cases.

"We take reports of adverse events very seriously," the company said. "We are collecting relevant information to share with the F.D.A. However, at this time, we have not been able to establish a causal association with our vaccine."
Moderna also responded to the Times, saying the company "continuously monitors the safety of the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine using all sources of data."

Doctors overall emphasize the disorder is not enough to avoid getting the vaccine.
The risk of developing a serious illness from Covid-19 is much greater than developing the rare disorder."

https://www.the-sun.com/news/2305200/doctor-dies-36-others-develop-rare-blood-disorder-vaccines/

"He said there was very strong backing for a strike but his fear was that there is so many non union staff these days that it would be difficult to win."

Only union members will be balloted. If the ballot is in favour of strike action, then non members will likely continue to work while their colleagues go out on strike. I have no idea what percentage of Openreach employees are in the union, but I've seen lots of third party contractors working in the cabinets, so it's questionable if a strike would be successful anyway. Since BT is strongly unionised, I would think they've built some sort of contingency into their operating model. BT will have known for years, that at some point new technology would lead to less buildings, equipment and workforce, so this was bound to happen eventually.
The timescale is pretty much set in stone, with PSTN switched off in 2025, which means that anyone already on Fibre will see no change, and any customers still on FTTC will lose their landline. From the end of 2025 to around 2031, the local exchanges deemed as redundant will be stripped out, with remaining exchanges converted, and used as aggregation/Distribution nodes feeding back to the Router switches at the Regional centres, I would guess.
I believe BT are looking at a maximum of one year redundancy pay, dependant on length of service, which seems fair to me. I've read that some employee's are currently entitled to two years redundancy pay, which isn't industry standard, and overly generous imo. As far as the union dictating BT's strategy going forward, that isn't their place imo.

"They included temporary injection site pain and tenderness and fatigue, headache, feverishness and myalgia. Fewer reactions were experienced after a second dose of AZD1222 and with the lower dose. The frequency of reactions were also reduced with increasing age."

From the copy and paste above two things stand out for me:
"Fewer reactions were experienced after a second dose of AZD1222 and with the lower dose."
"The frequency of reactions were also reduced with increasing age."

"Antibody responses to the SARS-CoV-2 virus spike protein were detected by day 28 in 100% participants, regardless of age or vaccine dosage and continued to rise after a second dose of AZD1222. Neutralising activity was seen in 100% participants by day 14 after receiving a second standard dose, regardless of age. T-cell responses were induced, peaking by day 14 after the first dose and were maintained two months after injection, regardless of age and dosage."

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/articles/2020/covid-19-vaccine-azd1222-is-better-tolerated-in-older-adults-than-younger-adults-with-similar-immune-responses-across-all-age-groups.html

So increased age results in lower reactions, and lower doses also reduce reactions. One possibility is that older people are less likely to suffer blood clotting due to a lower immune reaction. It also appears that the participants given the lower doses generated sufficient antibody response after 28 days, irrespective of dosage. Since a lower dose causes a lower reaction in younger people, wouldn't it make sense to use lower doses in the under 50's and observe the results?

"As regards the J&J vaccine, it's another adenovirus vector vaccine and so possibly subject to similar problems as the AZN vaccine."

Anyone's guess, but they should try reducing the immune reactions from the first doses imo, what have they got to lose from trying a low dose option?

"Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine under scrutiny at EMA after 4 'serious cases' of unusual blood clots"

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/johnson-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-spotlight-at-ema-after-4-serious-cases-unusual-blood

Since the J&J Vaccine is a single shot solution, it's likely to induce a strong immune reaction, which mirrors my own experience with the first dose AZN vaccination. I'm 59 and didn't suffer any adverse reactions, just the headaches and tiredness for two days. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines apparently don't invoke a strong reaction from the first dose, but do show more reaction to the second dose. I don't understand why they aren't revisiting the AZN half dose error in the phase 3 trials, which caused less initial side effects, and may just help with this clotting problem.

"Fluffy, the only thing I misunderstand is your comment"

Faultsman, you should lay off the morning booze and you might get my username right.
I agree that Ofcom are intrusively pushing BT to diverge with Openreach, but that doesn't mean that BT shareholders can't profit over the medium/long term. Openreach are moving toward a National Grid style operating model, where Openreach will provide the infrastructure for most providers. Currently the infrastructure is owned by BT, but Openreach manage said infrastructure. At some point, Openreach will be a valuable company in its own right, and that's where BT shareholders will have their patience rewarded imo.

I suspect that sort of trade on exchange, would have had the algo's jumping.

"Could it have been a sell from earlier in the day when the price started to drop? Looks like £1.57 was about right at 8am."

Looking at the price, it was a large off book trade around the market open, but not reported to the exchange until after the close. Over 22 million shares, so quite a substantial trade.

I wonder if the EU would have put so much effort into attacking AZN, early on, if they'd foreseen the blood clot issues? I watched Jim Kramer have a dig at the AZN vaccine earlier, and thought about everyone who's lined up to trash the vaccine, and company, before this came out. It's possible that all the kicking has fatally wounded this vaccine, which means the third world may suffer the consequences, as well as the EU which is now hindered by the reputational damage heaped on the AZN vaccine.
My guess is that this reaction is related to the initial strong side effects of the vaccine, and they should look at the dosage. Anyone in the UK over 30, on any medication with an increased blood clotting risk, will likely refuse the AZN vaccine, and maybe some who aren't. I've already had my first AZN jab, and will go back for my second dose when called, but many may not.
Oxford and AZN need to get to the bottom of this asap, and restore confidence in the vaccine.

Quite a rant Faultsman, but you seem to have misunderstood the cost reduction strategy currently in play. As FTTP rollout proceeds, there will be a massive reduction in the property footprint, and the number of staff required to maintain the FTTP infrastructure and equipment. All the current telephone exchanges will be switched off, with all voice routed over the same cloud routers currently carrying data. There'll be a lot more emphasis on Data/Voip/Mobile convergence, with many new multimedia applications offered, which is where the "Tech" offerings will come in. There'll also be a lot more Metropolitan 5G/Metro WiFi IoT applications, aimed at big business/Council's/Government/etc, which would also fall under "Big Tech" type offerings. All BT are doing is gearing up for the big changes coming down the road, and as an infrastructure provider they and others will have a natural advantage over the current "Big Tech" companies.
As far as the Pension's concerned, it isn't just about liabilities, it's about the balance between the assets and the liabilities. I'm hoping the upcoming pension review signals a pleasant surprise, as far as the pension deficit's concerned.
Openreach is a difficult one to call, since it's a management and service provider, with the network infrastructure owned by BT Group, I'm talking masts/poles/ducts/Fibres/Wayleaves/etc.
Once the pension isn't an issue, and the 5G/FTTP rollouts are completed, Openreach will be a valuable asset for BT shareholders, and may get sold off at that point to the benefit of the BT shareholders.

Day, announcing the amount of cash in the bank without stating Net Debt doesn't give a full picture.

My guesses, might be incorrect:

In last years FY results they reported Gross cash of approx €3.8bn (including approx €690 Million CCFF)

In the H1 21 results they reported:
"Successful €1.25bn financing raised in Sep"
"Cash prioritised. Closing cash €4.5bn"
"Over €1.5bn debt due in 2021 (incl. £600m UK CCFF & €850m Jun’14 bond)"
"€250m supplier reimbursements"

In the Q3 results they reported "€3.5bn cash at quarter end (31 Dec.)",
"successful fund raising (€400m share placing & €850m eurobond) in Sept"

Ignoring the CCFF, and the €850m eurobond due in June, as they were included in the full year 20 results. They are part of the current and previous Net Debt, and will be deducted from cash over the next financial year.

Rolled over debt, due to be paid during FY22 tax year €1.540bn consisting of:
CCFF continued (approx €690 Million)
€850m eurobond due to mature in June 21

Cash raised in the past year €1.5bn due to:
"Successful €1.25bn financing raised in Sep"
"€250m supplier reimbursements received in Q2"

Cash burn over the past year, approximately €2.158bn
(MAR 31, 2020 €3.808 bn) + (€1.5bn) - (€3.15bn) = approx €2.158bn

I've only glanced through the various statements, so my calculations could be wrong, but i'm assuming the cash balance was increased by €1.5bn due to share placing, plus new bond, plus supplier reimbursements. Adding the €1.5bn to last years Gross cash, and subtracting the FY 21 guidance figure of €3.15bn, gave a cash burn of approximately €2.158bn over the last year.
Subtracting the €1.540 Billion, due to be repaid over the next year, from the current €3.15 Billion cash, leaves €1.61 Billion. Assuming a cash bun of approximately €2 Billion per year, If Covid persists for another year, RYA will completely burn through its remaining cash and need to take on more debt. All this is just my opinion, I'm happy to be corrected if i've got anything wrong.

"I'm well aware of the bmj preprint published on 3 February which 'supports' the longer 12 week dosage interval but the reality is that there was not enough time to get reliable data at that point."

My point was that the first low dose regime gives a lower immune response with less side effects, with a higher efficacy in the trials. A low first dose might more replicate the reactions seen by Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations, and possible reduce the blood clotting issues, if a link is proved.

"The study is based on an updated analysis of 17?178 participants (9696 [56·4%] were women, 12?975 [75·5%] were white, and 14?413 [83·9%] were aged 18–55 years, 1792 [10·4%] aged 56–69 years, and 973 [5·7%] aged 70 years or older) from the four trials.2, 3, 4 The pooled results from these trials (including participants who received two standard doses and those who received a low dose followed by a standard dose) showed an overall vaccine efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 more than 14 days after the second dose of 66·7% (95% CI 57·4–74·0). Vaccine efficacy was 63·1% (51·8–71·7) in those who received two standard doses and 80·7% (62·1–90·2) in those who received the low dose plus standard dose. Notably, in exploratory analyses, vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose was 76·0% (59·3–85·9) from day 22 to day 90, and antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning. Supporting a longer-interval immunisation strategy, vaccine efficacy was significantly higher at 81·3% (60·3–91·2) after two standard doses given at an interval of 12 weeks or longer, compared with 55·1% (33·0–69·9) when given less than 6 weeks apart. These findings were supported by immunogenicity studies done in participants who were younger than 55 years, showing anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG antibody responses more than two-fold higher in those who had a dose interval of at least 12 weeks than in those who had an interval of less than 6 weeks (geometric mean ratio 2·32 [95% CI 2·01–2·68])."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00528-6/fulltext

"follow the big money as the saying goes :)"

The big money is currently working in questionable ways, there's something amiss with the way money is being invested these days imo. The signs are out there, maybe Archegos is the Canary in the coal mine. The Archegos fiasco may be the first block in a game of financial Jenga. It's now being reported that Morgan Stanley had inside information and fire sold stock, "telling the hedge funds that they were part of a margin call that could prevent the collapse of an unnamed client."
The big boys will dump stock faster than an omeprazole curry if things go south, and they don't worry when they're playing with other peoples money.
RYA, GS, and HSBC have nothing to do with Archegos, as far as I know, so this is off topic. I've got a feeling that all isn't well in the US, and it isn't a case of if, but when something blows.
If you chart back 5 years, the DAX has outperformed the FTSE 100 by approximately 48%, but the DOW has outperformed the FTSE 100 by around 80%, with the NASDAQ outperforming around a whopping 172%. What I'm basically saying is that the FTSE is undervalued imo, and I'm not sure how to describe what's happening in the US markets. I'm wondering when we'll get back to the stage where stocks are valued on fundamentals, rather than some fantasy future earning multiple that's impossible to achieve.
Crypto is another signal that the markets have become detached from reality, with 1 bitcoin currently worth $57,894.90. Sometimes I wonder if someone's slipped something into my coffee when I see the price of bitcoin, but after pinching myself, I realise that it must be others living some kind of psychedelic experience, possibly caused by some sort of mass hypnosis. The truth is out there, looks like another X File, or maybe we're traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of imagination. That's the signpost up ahead - your next stop, the Twilight Zone!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html

Looks as though HSBC and GS are betting big on RYA, with HSBC crossing 7% "of voting rights attached to shares (total of 9.A)" this morning, and GS crossing the 6% "Total of both in % (9.A + 9.B)", after 17:00. Start worrying if Credit Suisse take a big holding lol.

Apparently we'll have to wait until tomorrow for the EMA to issue a statement on the AZN/Blood clot association. I wonder if they're discussing it with the MHRA, as it's been reported that we may hear something from the MHRA today.

"If there are millions of spare doses manufactured and donated to COVAX because no one in first world actively wants AZN it has potential to be one of biggest scandals in modern medical history."

I'll do my stuck record impersonation, and say again that a half dose for the first vaccination might sort this issue. I've had the AZN vaccine and the side effects were really noticeable, which surprised me. From memory, one of the articles I read, suggested that the half dose mistake was noticed because the trial participants had less side effects. They should move to a first half dose regime imo.

"RYANAIR MARCH TRAFFIC DOWN 91% TO 0.5m GUESTS
77% LOAD FACTOR AS COVID-19 CONTINUES TO IMPACT TRAFFIC"

Pretty much sums up how Covid is impacting International Travel.

This is what i'm talking about:

"The vaccine’s 70 per cent effectiveness is much lower than the 90-plus per cent reported by Pfizer and BioNTech and Moderna in recent weeks. However, in a subgroup of more than 3000 people given a half dose followed by a full dose a month later, the figure jumped to 90 per cent. Two full doses a month apart gave an efficacy of 62 per cent.

Sarah Gilbert, also at the University of Oxford, said at the press conference that more research was needed to work out why the half dose seems to prime the body to respond better. “It could be that by giving a small amount of the vaccine to start with and following up with a big amount, that’s a better way of kicking the biggest and most effective immune system response,” she said.

Pollard said the finding was intriguing because all the team had expected two high doses would give the best immune response."

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2260588-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-up-to-90-per-cent-effective/#ixzz6rEnjE7hF

What seems clear is that the first AZN vaccination has a higher incidence of reactions, which suggests it causes an increased immune response. It was reported that the accidental half dose regime, in last years phase 3 trial, resulted in a lower immune response and increased efficacy. The reason they didn't go forward with the half dose regime, was due to the trial sample ages being below 55. It seems a no brainer to me, to give a half dose first vaccination going forward. They already have all the information, but scientists seem to take a blinkered approach to things, with every i dotted, and every t crossed. At worst, it would result in a reduced efficacy, but the previous trial suggests not, and it could significantly reduce side effects in younger people.
Who's to say that the dosing calculation for the AZN vaccine hasn't been wrong from the outset, where the scientists should have considered a lower first dose?

There are many reasons I'm holidaying in the UK this year.

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2021/04/05/exclusive-another-brit-denied-flight-speaks-of-anguish-at-not-seeing-sons-at-easter-due-to-rude-and-abrupt-ryanair-staff/

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1419192/spain-travel-expat-news-brexit-latest-turned-away-Ryanair-Manchester-Alicante-airport