Member Info for fleccy

"Vods debt is fixed rate and no short term refinancing?"

Indeed, i'm not sure what mehmehmeh is interpreting as affected by Central Bank interest rates. From his first link:

Strong liquidity position
Net cash position = €9.8 billion
Unused facilities = €7.4 billion
Maintain target of 2.5-3.0x leverage
No short-term refinancing requirements
Mandatory convertible bond maturing in March 2022

Vodafone are dealing with the MCB's, through share buyback programs, while the share price is low; And even if they didn't buyback the stock, the MCB's would result in dilution without increasing the debt. MCB's can have an effect on the stock price, and make dividend payouts more expensive, but it wont affect the debt profile.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?comparison=INDEXFTSE%3AUKX%2CLON%3AVOD%2CLON%3AULVR%2CLON%3ALLOY

Notice how BT stands out on this chart, it peaked similarly to Lloyds, but then dropped off to perform similarly to other non banking UK stocks. Why did BT peak, before dropping off?

Also in BT's case it appeared to drop on the Rate announcement, peak around 10 to 15 mins later, and then drop rapidly as soon as it hit 168p. Totally ridiculous moves imo, and just typical of BT's price actions. The markets appear to game UK stocks, like BT, rather than treating them as serious investments.

"Dont feel that this is reason - as BT Treasury will be a bit more sophisticated than having all its debt linked to Base Rate - wont they?"

This would be a better thread to discuss this. It's most likely sterling strengthening that'll be knocking stock prices.

"Ok pal, Point to point would be an interesting one, a typical fibre network design will have splice joints at chambers either every 2km or 4km plus less if loop joints have been added to pick up additional cell sites.
All users share the same fibre cable, eg, 288f cable, the cell site would only require a pair of fibres within the tube, 24 tubes, 12 fibres per tube in the. 288f cable."

I'm assuming Hollow Core fibre wont have splice losses, since the splice will only be on the cladding. I wonder if current OTDR's will be capable of measuring losses, and breaks, in the same way as a standard single mode Fibre; A compatible OTDR would need to be set for a refractive index of 1.

"refinancing all the 44.5B debt is going to get much more expensive"

I assume you've checked the short term, and long term, debt profile then?

"May not be worth the investment, unless specific to a project. The single mode cable installed all over the country to connect up 5G cell sites is using standard single mode fibre cables"

"The lower latency – an approximately 1.5-µsec/km reduction versus standard single-mode fiber – could prove beneficial in 5G applications, the evaluations have demonstrated. Working with Mavenir, BT has shown that the lower latency the hollowcore fiber provides can extend the length of connections between hub sites and antennas while staying within the necessary latency window. A single exchange could therefore support a greater number of antennas, the tests indicate."

https://www.lightwaveonline.com/optical-tech/transmission/article/14204396/bt-testing-hollowcore-fiber-for-5g-support

“This new type of fibre cable could play an important role in the future of the world’s communications infrastructure, heralding a step-change in capability and speed, to keep up with the demands for high-speed, low latency communications driven by 5G networks, streaming, and more,”

"One potential use case has already been identified. BT and OpenRAN developer Mavenir believe the lower latency of hollow core fibre can increase the distance between mobile antennas and back-end processing in exchanges. This means mobile operators could power more 5G sites from a single exchange or cabinet, improving coverage and capacity at a much lower cost."

https://www.techradar.com/uk/news/bt-trials-hollow-core-fibre-that-could-boost-5g-build

"May not be worth the investment, unless specific to a project. The single mode cable installed all over the country to connect up 5G cell sites is using standard single mode fibre cables"

Hollow core Fibre with QKD isn't about point to multipoint FTTP, it's about offering secure point to point low latency connectivity for Enterprise customers. You're talking about big business customers connecting regional headquarters, or connectivity between server farms, or Government/Military connections . I could imagine it will be a good money spinner in the absence of other competitors.
As far as 5G is concerned, it's still early days, any technology that potentially increases the distance from the cell to the server may become attractive.

Well done BOE, most economists thought the BOE would hold off due to Omicron, but they haven't.

"Soon to be hollow core glass tube, to make the transmission speed even quicker and more secure and lucrative to BT who will license it to vendors of ultra high security quantum networks of the future"

I'm interested in where they'll use it, I would think it'll be used for services requiring low latency secure connections. My guesses would be 5G cell to server connectivity, where round trip delay might be critical for traffic control, driverless cars, etc. Other uses might be stock trading, where traders want the lowest latency possible; The trans Atlantic Cable Hibernia, was specifically aimed at stock market trading, with the most direct route they could find.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernia_Express

I also thought about Low Earth Orbit Satellite as a possible competitor to Hibernia, when they bring the inter satellite laser connections into service; With a satellite train spanning the Atlantic, and providing low latency connectivity between New York, London, and other Financial Centres. I imagine Hollow Core Fibre may be used in the International Financial Centres to connect HFT's, and others, to the Exchanges.

"Fleccy the "current market madness" doesn't account for the steady fall over the past 4+ years."

It hasn't just been Vodafone, look at BT. Telecoms have been hit by a persistent negative narrative, with a multitude of articles targeting sentiment over many years. It's just my opinion, but I think the big market players have purposely pushed down the sector, with a view to changing the narrative at a point of their choosing. Various studies have projected a Trillion Dollar IOT market by 2030, and it's clear that the companies owning the mobile 5G infrastructure will benefit from a large chunk of the revenue, yet you read articles raising doubts over how the Mobile providers will monetise 5G, clearly contradictory opinions. Investment in FTTP, by the incumbents, have also received similar treatment, while banks and funds like Goldman Sachs have been throwing money at Altnets.
I'm heavily invested in BT & Vodafone, and will remain so for many years to come.

"Wish I'd put my lump in something like Netflix which are up 505% in the same time spa"

The likes of Netflix, Google, Amazon, are likely to see a big hike in costs over the coming years. We've seen various fines for Apple, Google, and Facebook, so the regulatory authorities are lining up to crimp the Big US internet companies.
The latest possible change, in the UK, could be around Net Neutrality. OFCOM are currently doing a review which will likely lead to recommendations to Parliament, for changes to the current regime. The Telecom companies, and ISP's, have high bandwidth big tech in their sights.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-2/call-for-evidence-net-neutrality-review

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0025/229525/bt.pdf

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0023/229523/briglauer-w.pdf

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0022/229522/bbc.pdf

"I'd reiterate 90p for the reasons I have set out before and Pfen below."

Again, the evidence would suggest that any dip below £1 would result in a surge of buys, pushing the stock price back up. Robina your view that the downtrend, over the last couple of years, will force VOD down to 90p is overly simplistic, and doesn't factor in the current macro drivers around UK stock prices. For example today's dip is more about the high inflation rate, and the speculation around the BOE raising interest rates tomorrow. Telecom's have been amongst the worst performing stocks, and were punished as much as Travel stocks on the back of the pandemic, which is just stupid imo. I see Telecom stocks as a future must have holding in years to come, once the current market madness has subsided and stocks with tangible assets come back into fashion.

"Yea - 80p"

How do you come up with that figure Mikey?
Vodafone hit a closing low of 98.02p on 16/03/2020, and then hit a multi year low of 92.76p on 17/03/2020, but closed at 107.72p on the day. It's clear that the buying pressure, if VOD dips below £1, will ensure it wont stay there long. 80p is pure fantasy.

Date______Open_ High_ _Low__Close
12/03/2020 111.68 112.22 101.06 103.94
13/03/2020 108.22 114 . . 104.64 105.06
16/03/2020 101.5 . .101.92 93.69 . 98.02
17/03/2020 102.22 .109.02 92.76 .107.72
18/03/2020 104.26 .114.12 101.82 107.38
19/03/2020 111.56 .122.66 108.94 116

than, not that.

"but it's more likely" than "the UK Government allowing a foreign takeover of BT."

"I agree steve government seem to want good links with india , but has he got the money to buy"

Mukesh Ambani could probably raise the money to launch a bid for BT, but he's got his hands full with Jio in India. There's a view that the Indian Government has made life difficult for Vodafone and given Jio a significant leg up, so I can't imagine the British Government helping Ambani takeover BT.
I would say there's zero chance of the British Government allowing a foreign takeover of BT, and since there are no obvious UK Telecom companies large enough to take over BT, the only likely scenario might be a merger. I could imagine Telecoms companies merging with Media/Content providers, as they would compliment each other. BT and Sky could be a good fit, as long as the merged company was headquartered in the UK, with Sky offloading its Broadband business and moving to a streaming model. I'm not saying that will happen, but it's more likely that the UK Government allowing a foreign takeover of BT.

BT on target for £2 Billion annual cost savings by 2025.
Aiming for 25 million FTTPremise passed by end of 2026.
Altnet investment risky, due to lack of scale.
Altnet consolidation not as easy as some may think.
Current Altnet hype very Deja Vu, think 1990's CTV.
Altnets heavily dependent on BT infrastructure.
BT offers a diversified portfolio of services, unlike Altnet one trick ponies.
Etc.
Etc
Etc.

Enough said.

"Also its Openreach that the Gov will be wanting to protect for national security reasons not EE/BT "

I completely disagree booboobooboo, Openreach is important from an FTTP and political perspective, but hardly a National Security worry. If the security agencies wanted to monitor data, they'd do it from the Core Network Routers, where the data will be harvested at the IP level. As far as nefarious entities monitoring FTTP data of individuals, they wouldn't need to access the Network sites, they could tap into optical splitters at street level, since the PON connections feed multiple premises via a single fibre. BT own the Fibres, Routers, and everything else, the Core Network is far more important to National Security than the Access Network, in my opinion.

Down nearly 10% since yesterday's open at 178.4p. Yesterday's 3% Off Book trade ignored by the market with a 2+% fall into yesterdays close. Currently down over 7% today, with the FTSE in the green. It's almost like the market pencilled in todays drop, yesterday.

Drahi building big stake in BT, KKR bidding for Telecom Italia, all Telecom stock prices under pressure. I recently topped up my Vodafone holding, because I believe Telecoms to be amongst the best earners once 5G and FTTP infrastructure is completed. I always planned to hold BT long term, so these market games make no difference to me, apart from opportunities to purchase more stock at lower prices.
I've heard the market narrative concerns around monetising 5G, and other excuses to trash the sector, but there are contradictions between the narrative and actions of the big players, Look at KKR salivating at the prospect of getting Telecom Italia on the cheap, or the amount of investment being directed toward the Altnets in the UK.
The hype is suggesting that IOT will be a Trillion Dollar market by 2030, with much of that connectivity via 5G, so more contradiction of the current market narrative around Telecoms.
The analysts are saying one thing, but the companies they work for are quietly doing the opposite imo.