Member Info for fleccy

I was wondering when we might hear some news about that. I hope this news is based in fact, and not just supposition.

"but if it does, as long as it goes back up again afterwards, that's ok I guess"

That's the plan, Dan
You don't need to be coy, Roy
Hop on the bus, Gus

"So isn't this just another example of complaining for the sake of it? Vod has had a good run lately, let's just hope it continues. & for fleccy's sake, I hope they both go up."

Dan, it seems the 2022 narrative is gearing toward a rotation from Growth to Value; I need one more dip though, in the next couple of weeks, as I want to make another top up on VOD, around 110p for a couple of days would be nice.

The relevant bit:

"The Group’s potential exposure under this mechanism is now capped at INR 64 billion (€747 million)"

According to the annual report:

"Compared to the prior year period, we recognised lower gains on
disposals, no impairment losses, and we no longer recognised
Vodafone’s share of losses related to Vodafone Idea following the write
down of the asset to nil in FY20"

"The Group’s potential exposure under
this mechanism is now capped at INR 64 billion (€747 million). See note 29
‘Contingent liabilities and legal proceedings’ to the consolidated financial
statements for further information."

"As part of the agreement to merge Vodafone India and Idea Cellular in 2017, the parties agreed a mechanism for payments between the
Group and Vodafone Idea Limited (‘VIL’) pursuant to the difference between the crystallisation of certain identified contingent liabilities in
relation to legal, regulatory, tax and other matters, and refunds relating to Vodafone India and Idea Cellular. Cash payments or cash
receipts relating to these matters must have been made or received by VIL before any amount becomes due from or owed to the Group.
Any future payments by the Group to VIL as a result of this agreement would only be made after satisfaction of this and other contractual
conditions.
The Group’s potential exposure under this mechanism is now capped at INR 64 billion (€747 million) following payments made under this
mechanism from Vodafone to VIL totalling INR 19 billion (€235 million). The matters covered by the mechanism include the Adjusted
Group Revenue (‘AGR’) judgement debt levied on VIL for an amount materially in excess of the cap. There are significant uncertainties in
relation to VIL’s ability to settle all liabilities relating to the AGR judgement and no further cash payments are considered probable at 31
March 2021.
The carrying value of the Group’s investment in VIL is €nil and the Group is recording no further share of losses in respect of VIL (see note
12). The Group’s potential exposure to liabilities within VIL is capped by the mechanism described above. As a consequence, contingent
liabilities arising from litigation in India concerning operations of Vodafone India are no longer reported below."

https://investors.vodafone.com/sites/vodafone-ir/files/2021-05/vodafone-annual-report-2021.pdf

"The carrying value of idea was reduced to nil last FY. Presumably the dilution is 'nil' with cashflow commitments underpinned by Gov?"

Indeed, I would see this as a positive since Vodafone had one foot out of the door, and was likely on the verge of walking away. The regulatory and Government policies have hammered Vodafone Idea, and miraculously aided Jio over recent years. With the Indian Government as V.I.'s largest shareholder, maybe things will miraculously start going V.I.'s way.

Vodafone has had some big volumes going through on various days, not as dramatic as BT's leading up to the Drahi anouncement, but still significant. Daily volumes seem really high anyway, but some of the days exceed Lloyds volumes, which is interesting.

03/12/2021 272,497,787
17/12/2021 299,411,321
10/01/2022 269,571,647

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRKVbw6_Fv_YiKPamvuPeKhqYZvBhHWlGmOZLkwRgWwkfKvltAO8RqmSoQxBGdlcDjR9CHFymRF2lgu/pubchart?oid=1102357210&format=interactive

"Hi Bkkbkk
It was definetely a sell (as I posted earlier) hence price at 176 - however as you say its been mopped up by the buy side"

It can't be classed as a Buy, or Sell side, Trade. It was an Off Book trade set at the same price as the morning UT, and probably took place at 08:00.

tradeTime . . . . . . . . . price volume tradeValue type
2022-01-10 15:09:08 176 28886835 50840829.6 Off-Book
2022-01-10 14:31:40 176 28886835 50840829.6 Off-Book
2022-01-10 08:00:17 176 75141 132248.16 UT

Actually you should use the closing price of 112.26p on the 31st Dec, not the Post Auction opening price on the 4th Jan, it's therefore up 2.085% on the week.

"I often think why i initially invested money in vodafone as well, turns out i would have been better off if i stuffed it in the mattress instead, sorry but it's true, you do the maths"

Since none of us have a crystal ball, it's pointless worrying about timing investments. Since my initial investments, I've averaged down considerably, and not because I have any sentimental attachment, but because I believe there's value in the stocks. I'm still showing a capital loss on my Vodafone and BT shares, but my Lloyds holding has gone £4,428 into the Green over the last couple of days. Across all my investments, I was showing in the Red by £51,080 on the 1st January 2022, and at the close today my total loss is showing as £33,906; So in just three trading days my total loss has narrowed by £17,174, with Lloyds and BT showing the best New Year performance, at 7% and 4% respectively, but even Vodafone is up nearly 2%. If this rotation from Growth into value continues, in 2022, i'll be showing a big gain by the end of this year. My timing was really off on my initial investments, but I piled in and topped up heavily during Covid, and with VOD being my only holding not showing recent improving price performance, i'm directing all my reinvestments and top ups there for now.
Some will say, "you could have put the money into better performing stocks, or sectors", but that's where the lack of a crystal ball comes in. For my Lloyds shares alone, 1p either way adds £2,892 to my paper gains, or losses, so if I was the worrying type I'd have plenty to worry about lol; As things stand, I don't worry, I just watch, wait, and top up .

"It sounds like you enjoyed your job which is great to hear, Christmas party & all. You sound like a very positive person which I greatly admire."

It isn't about being positive, or negative, it comes down to understanding why you initially invested in something, and whether you see value. In Vodafone's case, I see it as currently having the best value out of my holdings, as well as on the FTSE generally, so I'm happy to hold and top up as funds become available.

"It,s either blue or red with Hargreaves lansdown app, but won't fall out over it lol"

In Finance terms, In the Green usually indicates a Gain; In the Black indicates no change, but is sometimes used to signify a gain; In the Red indicates a loss.
Chart colours are meaningles, as any colour can represent a gain, or loss. Google happens to chart prices below the previous close in Red, and above the previous close in Green.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi4jOSp2Jz1AhUPEcAKHWR_CQEQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VOD:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwifmPyj2Jz1AhWLJcAKHZz_Dk0Q_AUoAXoECAIQAw

"Can people stop referring to up days as "In the Blue", it's either In the Green, or In the Red."

I should have added, except when it's In the Black lol.

I suppose you could say the Red's and Blue's in reference to football stocks, or you could describe stocks that are "beaten up" with a metaphor like Black and Blue at a stretch.

"I blue day per week and the remainder red."

Can people stop referring to up days as "In the Blue", it's either In the Green, or In the Red.

Now that we've cleared that up; PFen we're all entitled to an opinion, but even you must accept that a stock bottoms at some point, and if said stock is a safe Dividend paying investment, there's no reason not to invest. A bank account is currently paying 0.1% interest, and assuming that VOD has bottomed, why argue against investing now in view of the current yield? My personal view is that VOD is easily worth £2 plus, so I'll wait for that level, but your argument to avoid now is out of date, unless you think VOD will drop further, which seems unlikely.

"It all depends on the market sentiment and economic sentiment (economic cycles) , Central bank policy, Government policy, BOD decision making etc etc etc ..which in turn will affect company performance"

Don't forget about the system allowing Big Players to trade off book, while algo's control the On Exchange price. Why it's allowed to trade off book, without affecting the On Book price, is beyond me; It's a form of legal manipulation in my opinion, since it allows large accumulations of stock without driving the price up, or down if someone's selling a large holding.

"Before this I worked for Cable and Wireless which was obviously bought out by Vodafone"

I also worked for Mercury/C&W/CWW and eventually VOD. I was a Field Engineer, based in Manchester for 20 odd years; Transferring to Cornwall in 2009, working in a dual role as Submarine Cable, and NOC, Engineer. It was while I was working in Cornwall, that Vodafone stepped in and took us over.
When I joined Mercury in 1988, the company was quite small and I watched the business grow; The Christmas parties, back then, were attended by everyone based in the NW region, and everyone pretty much knew everyone else. Maybe I know you Mikey.

"You make no sense. Calm down mate, only a year to go! We cant wait! I bet Nick Read is begging you to stay?"

So it's Mikey who works for VOD? Where are based Mikey, and what is your role?

"Bloomberg show the price at main market close, but the futures remain open. If you click on the chart you will see it is down .61% since close at 4:30"

It really is a waste of time looking at FTSE Futures, the open hardly ever matches the Futures.

"my post was directed mainly to fleccy as he seems very passionate about Vodafone and it's future, of course It's up to everyone where they choose to invest their money"

I'm not just invested in VOD, i'm also heavily invested in BT. I'm invested in VOD because of their international operations, and BT because of their dominant UK position. I worked in Telecoms for nearly 40 years and watched the various changes to Transmission network hierarchies, from PDH, to SDH, to DWDM, and the initial moves to VOIP, with systems like Cisco Call manager. As far as the current upgrade cycle, I don't see any more major changes for Decades to come, as FTTP will satisfy any bandwidth requirements for fixed services, and 5G will do the same for mobile; 6G is really just an extension of 5G, with much of the 6G applications using the current 5G Frequencies.
What I'msaying is that once the FTTP and 5G rollouts are completed, there's no more big infrastructure spend required, so Telecoms companies will virtually print money. IOT is forecast to be a Trillion Dollar market by 20:30, and companies owning mobile infrastructure will be first in line for a good chunk of that market. That's why I'm loading up with Telecom stocks now.

"but if we issue more shares for dividend reinvestment at the current low SP then earnings per share (EPS) will be impacted."

They aren't diluting the shares in issue though. The Total Voting rights haven't changed in the last year.

"BT Group plc confirms that on 31 December 2019 its capital consisted of 9,968,127,681 ordinary shares with voting rights. On that date, BT Group plc held 85,931,827 ordinary shares as treasury shares and therefore, the total number of voting rights in BT Group plc on that date was 9,882,195,854."

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/bt/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1470&newsid=1355831

"BT Group plc confirms that on 31 December 2021 its capital consisted of 9,968,127,681 ordinary shares with voting rights. On that date, BT Group plc held 48,435,589 ordinary shares as treasury shares and therefore, the total number of voting rights in BT Group plc on that date was 9,919,692,092."

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/bt/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1470&newsid=1540336

Dividend reinvestment is something someone does by buying up stock on the open market, with the oney they receive in Dividends, it doesn't involve issuing new shares. When a company has a share issuance, or issues Mandatory/Hybrid Convertible Bonds, that can lead to dilution, but has nothing to do with Dividend reinvestment, as far as I know BT aren't doing that.
As far as BT's debt, it isn't an issue, it's been used by certain media outlets to drive negative sentiment in BT, but interest is easily covered by earnings, so not a problem.
I've looked at BT's dividend policy and I personally don't see any issue with the company affording it, especially since they've forcasted £2 Billion annual cost savings by 2025. BT can easily afford their financial commitments, including pension topup payments, and they aren't "bleeding cash" as you put it, they're investing in new network.