Member Info for fleccy

"All I did was respond to the information that you posted with the 3 RNS. What you should have done was put down the number of shares in issue on each of the dates and the resultant amount of shares issued being the difference between the 2 as you did in your last post."

I did post the figures at 17:12, before the RNS post.

"As far as the buyback, a £1 Billion share buyback isn't going to make much difference with 71,022,593,135 ordinary shares currently in issue; On the 31 January 2020 70,285,353,360 ordinary shares were in issue,"

"A buyback will result in X less shares in issue than without a buyback. X being the number of shares able to be purchased with the buyback money allocation.
Simple."

OMG, you just keep giving a text book answer. Obviously what you say is right, but you're either missing, or disregarding, the point I'm trying to make. I think you're just trying to wind me up lol.

"Anyone in such a plan with any common sense would have ditched it a long time ago with a chance of purchasing in the market at much lower than the strike price,down to below 24p. Also with any 3 year maturing now - strike price 46p? - plenty of opportunity to purchase a lot lower in the market."

I've paid into sharesave schemes and SIP's oer many years. Anyone in a sharesave, at say 60p, would have ditched them and entered into new schemes at much lower prices, if they had any sense. The reason they'd have to ditch the old schemes would be due to Government/Company limits on the maximum monthly payment into the scheme. As well as the sharesave schemes, there's also he Bonus plans for senior management, of which I know nothing about as I've never worked at such a privileged level.

"''but overall it wont do much to reduce the number of shares in issue.''
A buyback will result in X less shares in issue than without a buyback. X being the number of shares able to be purchased with the buyback money allocation.
Simple."

You should have pasted the complete paragraph:

"Shareholders will benefit, sort of, as they will prevent dilution, but overall it wont do much to reduce the number of shares in issue."

The point I was trying to convey is, if Lloyds issue 3/4 Billion shares every couple of years, for sharesave's and Bonus plans, then a £1 Billion share buyback is going to do very little to reduce the overall number of shares in issue, so all the management are really doing is reducing dilution due to Block Listings of shares.
I'm not sure it could be described as Robbing Peter to pay Paul, but it isn't far off if I'm understanding what's going on. If the £1 Billion, used for the share buybacks, is just replacing new shares issued for discounted employee schemes, then that £1 Billion isn't available for dividends, and will do very little to reduce the number of shares in issue. I'm happy to be corrected, but that's my understanding of what's happening.

"The total shares issued over the last 2 years will be 516,000,000 according to the information fleccy posted with the 3 RNS. So if Lloyds do go ahead with a £1 billion buyback, so lets assume even if the price paid for the shares averages 70p, £1 billion would purchase 1,428,571,428 shares which would be cancelled. That would almost 3 times the amount of new shares issued, so the net result would be lowering the total shares in issue by 1 billion shares."

Hardup, what you should actually do is check the shares in issue between two dates. The correct amount of new shares issued is 71,022,593,135 - 70,285,353,360 = 737,239,775, or just under 737.240 million shares. Lloyds will have some dealing costs, but not as much as retail investors, but they'll have to pay 0.5% stamp duty like everyone else. £1 Billion - 0.5% = 995 million. lets say 65p average purchase price, means they could purchase around 1.531 Billion shares. 1.531 - 0.737240 = 793.529 Million shares, which isn't much more than the shares they issued for sharesave schemes and bonus plans in 2020/21. If they just keep issuing more shares, for generous bonus plans and sharesave schemes, any excess will just be taken up. Shareholders will benefit, sort of, as they will prevent dilution, but overall it wont do much to reduce the number of shares in issue.

"Fleccy

Too many shares in circulation for the buybacks to be really effective. I can not see it making much of a difference.

What happened to the progressive dividend policy?"

They've obviously decided to make it a regressive progressive dividend policy lol.

A £1 Billion share buyback covers the number of extra shares they've issued over the last year, or two; This is what's increasing the number of shares:

"LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC - BLOCK LISTING OF SHARES

Application has been made to the UK Listing Authority and the London Stock Exchange for a block listing of 70,000,000 ordinary shares of 10p each in Lloyds Banking Group plc (the "Company"), comprising 20,000,000 shares for the Lloyds Banking Group Deferred Bonus Plan 2008 and 50,000,000 shares for the Lloyds Banking Group Executive Group Ownership Share Plan 2016 (together the "Plans"). These shares will be allotted to trade on the London Stock Exchange and be admitted to the Official List upon allotment pursuant to the Company's obligations under the Plans. Participants in these Plans will become entitled to these shares following the vesting of share awards or the exercise of share options in accordance with the relevant Plan rules. These shares will rank equally with the existing issued ordinary shares of the Company. Admission of the shares is expected on 26 February 2020."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/LLOY/block-listing-of-shares/14435601

" LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC - BLOCK LISTING OF SHARES

Application has been made to the UK Listing Authority and the London Stock Exchange for a block listing of 355,000,000 ordinary shares of 10p each in Lloyds Banking Group plc (the "Company"), comprising 250,000,000 shares for the Lloyds Banking Group Deferred Bonus Plan 2008 and 105,000,000 shares for the Lloyds Banking Group Share Incentive Plan (together the "Plans"). These shares will be allotted to trade on the London Stock Exchange and be admitted to the Official List upon allotment pursuant to the Company's obligations under the Plans. Participants in these Plans will become entitled to these shares following the vesting of share awards or the exercise of share options in accordance with the relevant Plan rules. These shares will rank equally with the existing issued ordinary shares of the Company. Admission of the shares is expected on 20 May 2020."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/LLOY/additional-listing/14545375

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/LLOY/block-listing-of-shares/14880972

"In fact they ignored the question. They spoke about headwinds in 2022 but no detail so how much special they can afford is anyone's guess. I am hoping for 1p =£700m."

If the guy in the webinar is correct, it's pretty disgraceful that they've reinstated the dividend at a significant reduction to the 2018 dividend of 3.21p, especially considering the 2019 dividend was on target for 3.6p. If he's correct, the best we can hope for is a 2p dividend for FY21, a significant discount to the FY19 projected dividend of 3.6p. Don't get me wrong, It isn't like I'm going to sell my holding because of this, but they appear to have used Covid as an excuse to change the strategic direction of the bank, at the expense of shareholder dividends. Hopefully their 2021 strategic review gamble will pay off, and be reflected in the share price, since dividend investors are seeing reduced income to finance this. As far as the buyback, a £1 Billion share buyback isn't going to make much difference with 71,022,593,135 ordinary shares currently in issue; On the 31 January 2020 70,285,353,360 ordinary shares were in issue, so although a £1 Billion share buyback will bring the shares in issue down below this, it wont be significantly below that.

"The article reported in the Mail by a "Financial Journalist" states "Analysts are forecasting that the dividend will amount to 1.99p a share"

Seems low to me, the dividend should be reinstated, at the very least, pre-covid levels with a special tagged on, or a share buyback anouncement.
2018 interim was 1.07p, with a Final of 2.14p, Total 3.21p; If Covid hasn't impacted the banks Financial state, then they should aim for at least the 2018 Dividend. The 2019 interim was 1.12p, so the Final would likely have been higher that year, if Covid hadn't happened.

"so you now have an average price of just under 50p?"

Just a miniscule fraction over 50p.

"Had these been placed in an ISA then there would be no CGT. Even now you could start the process to reduce CGT with a Bed & ISA utilising losses against gains."

A third are in ISA's, so I know where you're coming from. The other 2/3 are in my wife's name, and since she has no other income, she has the full tax allowance of £12,570 plus the £2000 dividend allowance before paying any tax. I'm well aware of Bed and ISA, so we'll ensure she stays below the tax limit, but she may get close in the next year, or two.

"Yes when I was continuing to decrease my Lloyds holding. Hoping that I will have the opportunity to continue decreasing up to and beyond that level in the current cycle."

Over 80p and I'm looking at a capital gain approaching £100,000, after topping up during covid, but I'm in no hurry to sell. If the yearly dividend get back to 3p+ a share, my Lloyds dividends alone will generate an income of nearly £10,000 a year.

"Lloyds banking group only goes back to 2009, during which time we have lived in a low inflation low base rate environment. The base rate starting 2009 at just 1.5% down to the recent nadir of 0.1%."

Irrespective of that, Lloyds was above 80p in 2015 with interest rates around 0.5%. Brexit gave the share price a big hit and it hasn't, as yet, fully recovered from that. Now that Brexit's is all but done, I think we can expect sentiment to push up UK stocks, going forward, barring any other macro shocks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ5XnQlPrZhna9v2wqvOpb0X_EogtL5xhlW8dkgtcbi5iCqUDmQB2vdARk89IzYNxkK2e25MckrSC-7/pubchart?oid=1100176233&format=interactive

"I aim to have a shed load of VOD averaging sub 60p and am well on my way."

Do you mean sub 160p?

"Looking good so far. I don't see any reason why the sp this year should follow last year."

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNX7OL8NbmdxLNu1tQ_FXsh4uZEvaf4OegctK7jUEi3p6PN6FUOkziBdow1xTk74Z04ATTqXQavJZa/pubchart?oid=1937898192&format=interactive

"I don't understand why they've increase their target to less than the current price (170 vs 179)."

UBS always seem to value BT less than the current price. This is more like a face saving exercise. as 135p looks somewhat ridiculous with BT climbing week on week, and pushing toward 180p.

"ihalliwell10, not sure you would want to buy back, going on last year it reached a peak on the 9th may 142, then kept dropping back, will it follow the same trend this year ?, what do you think guys"

No one on here can give that advice. Last year the world was gripped by Covid, who's to say this summer and beyond will be covid free, hence a completely different scenario.

"Good evening guys, I will post the share price at close each Friday so we can check the progress, maybe we can also use these figures for Narcus and Robina, to settle their argument on payment day as well"

You don't have to bother doing that, just use:

=GOOGLEFINANCE("LON:VOD", "PRICE", "31/12/2020", "30/11/2023","WEEKLY")

In Google Sheets.

Date Close
08/01/2021 128.44
15/01/2021 127.22
22/01/2021 127.34
29/01/2021 124.84
05/02/2021 134.08
12/02/2021 133.92
19/02/2021 131.16
26/02/2021 122.02
05/03/2021 124.56
12/03/2021 132.82
19/03/2021 133.94
26/03/2021 135.38
01/04/2021 133.66
09/04/2021 134.64
16/04/2021 135.18
23/04/2021 133.58
30/04/2021 136.8
07/05/2021 141.82
14/05/2021 140.72
21/05/2021 127.48
28/05/2021 128.3
04/06/2021 127.94
11/06/2021 129.84
18/06/2021 127.68
25/06/2021 123
02/07/2021 121.86
09/07/2021 118.64
16/07/2021 116.6
23/07/2021 118.84
30/07/2021 116.18
06/08/2021 118.66
13/08/2021 120.3
20/08/2021 122.68
27/08/2021 122.74
03/09/2021 120.82
10/09/2021 116.76
17/09/2021 114.32
24/09/2021 113.8
01/10/2021 112.2
08/10/2021 112.1
15/10/2021 110.44
22/10/2021 110.82
29/10/2021 108.04
05/11/2021 111.36
12/11/2021 113.56
19/11/2021 113.62
26/11/2021 109.62
03/12/2021 110.38
10/12/2021 113.2
17/12/2021 114.26
24/12/2021 112.54
31/12/2021 112.26
07/01/2022 114.6
11/01/2022 116.1

This got a mention on CNBC, maybe there's some substance behind the Reuters article.

I might write a song, and possibly call it:

50 Ways To Lose Your Money

"fleccy. If the vod sp doesn't pick up soon, my wife will be looking for 50 ways to leave me?"

Lol, my missus just looks heavenward, and asks me how much we've lost this week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABXtWqmArUU