Member Info for fleccy

"fleccy, the picture you paint is somewhat better than the one I did and I’d much rather look at yours."

Total off book trades today, unless more have come through since I captured the data, is:

Volume Off Book 154,469,877.2
Traded Value Off Book £207,953,599

In other words, someone bought 100 Million shares at 10:21:55 this morning, for £134.520 Million, at a price of 134.52p

Forget the UT, there was an off book trade for:
tradeTime price . . . volume . . . Value. . . . . . type
10:21:55 . . 134.52 100000000 134520000 Off-Book

"Bit puzzled by the slow walk up in price following a slew of upgrades 160p 180p 200p plus etc. Assuming held back to let shorts out."

Up 20% in a month, hardly a slow walk. To my mind, it demonstrates how Telecom stocks have been held down, with the big players deciding the timings for stock/sector price recovery. If you look at a 5 year chart comparing Vodafone to BT, Vodafone chased BT down and is now chasing them up.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VOD:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiwsMWek-31AhUWgFwKHUHmD3UQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&window=5Y&comparison=LON%3ABT.A

Vodafone is 5% higher, relative to BT over 5 years, but it demonstrates the underperformance is sector and not stock specific.

"Coal -fired generation accounted for just 1.8% of the UKs energy mix last year, it may seem an insignificant amount until the Sun doesn't Shine and the Wind doesn't blow."

I haven't read the whole thread, but the UK has massive amonts of coal in the ground, they choose not to mine it. Many years ago, a company applied for permission to open cast mine near my home at that time, permission was refused. The Holy Grail of power generation is Fusion, once that's achieved commercially the World's power generation issues will disappear in short order; Wind power, gas and coal fired power stations, wont be required, and even natural gas for cooking and heating wont be required. Fusion power will mark the end of fossil fuel usage, with the only surviving uses for Oil, being the creation of Hydrocarbons for other uses, like composites and plastics.

"Just cashed out ) 52.70"

Nobody can criticize someone for cashing out at a profit, but I will continue to hold. A lot will depend on the Full year results, on the 24th Feb, but Lloy has a lot further to climb in my opinion. I think 60p is easily doable in the very near future, and I see 70p as a more reasonable exit price, if I was of that mindset.

"I think the "private 5G network" growth should also benefit BT as more companies outsource this growing area of interest, especially as IoT expands within their organisation"

That's my thinking too. I'd like to see BT put public WiFi in as many places as possible too.

Anyone else notice that Covid hardly gets a mention in the media anymore? Yet it was going to throw us all into more lockdowns and further damage economies only two months ago. It's all about the Russia, China, Uktaine, and Parties at Number 10 now.
The western media, including social media, now control the narrative's within their sphere of influence, with politicians dancing to their tune. My personal view is, the media storm around the number 10 parties isn't important in the present; Had the parties remained a secret, would anyone actually have been harmed by them? And how many other's around the country, hands on hearts, can claim they didn't contravene the rules at some point over the last couple of years. Personally I don't really care about the parties at number 10, mainly because it isn't important in scheme of things, in my opinion; What's important to me is the UK economy, and rebalancing the UK toward more manufacturing, plus the direction of my investments.
It seems the World is moving toward an unwinding of Globalisation, going off the narratives around Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan/Uighers/Huawei/etc. I don't believe Russia will invade Ukraine, but I do believe the US will increasingly reduce reliance on China, with rhetoric from both sides and the building of new alliances, shaping the future world order. Russia and China are chumming up, and China is building relationships in ****stan, Africa, South America, etc, so there are far more important developments than leaked reports of parties at Number 10 last year.

"f
Well done - very sensible."

Indeed, I didn't regret it.

"These two American Investment bank giants are testing out the UK banking retail market to see if their brands, Chase and Marcus can be rolled out globally"

Soon after Marcus started up, I tried to set up an online savings account, with them, and move about £50,000 into yhe new account, but was put off by all the money laundering forms, they requested I complete; So I cancelled during setup and decided to invest the money in the stock market instead, through our stocks and shares ISA's.

"Inflation will increase tax revenue however governments have the habit of under estimating the effects of inflation on expenditure."

Governments need inflation to reduce their debt, it's nothing new to have inflationary cycles. The trick the BOE need to pull off, is keeping it under control. I suspect we'll see 1% plus before the end of this year, if we don't see some sort of reduction in inflation by the Autumn.

"BoE unwinding of their £895Bn Quantitative Easing programme is about to commence.
Ask Yourselves !
What will it look like, and what financial impact will it have on the UK Economy, Share prices and Bond markets."

It will likely push up interest rates, since QE lowers the interest rates on savings and loans. Bond yields will also likely rise, as unwinding progresses.

"Feels like 2008 to me. The crash happened because of 'subprime' loans. If £200k loans to twenty something's based on monthly repayment affordability, based on virtually zero interest rates aren't subprime, I don't know what is."

According to last years results, with the assumption that little has changed since, Lloyds look to have a good quality Mortgage Lending Book.

"UK mortgages account for c.2/3rds of Group lending
- Growth in 2020, net lending increasing £5.2bn
- Average LTV 43.5% and c.92% of book with LTV ?80%
- 2006-08 book has average LTV 41% with c.95% =80%;
continues to perform well while declining c.11% per year
• New to arrears have remained subdued in 2020, in line
with pre-crisis levels"

I wouldn't describe that as subprime, would you?

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2020/full-year/2020-lbg-fy-results-presentation.pdf

I listened to the Conference call and I found the most interesting commentary by Simon Lowth, estimating the effect of price rises across consumer and Openreach, at around 29 minutes into the call:

1) On Consumer he said 75% of contracted connectivity customers would be subject to the CPI Plus price rises.
2) On Openreach he said 80% of overall revenue would be subject to the CPI price rises from April.

In Fiscal Full Year 21, Consumer was the highest Revenue earner, Enterprise second, and Openreach close behind Enterprise. I'm assuming next years revenue will be quite a bit higher, across Consumer and Openreach, so the overall revenue will go up. Half of Openreach's earnings come from BT Group, so Openreach revenue will be inflated at the expense of Consumer and others within group, as well as external revenue increases from the CP's like TalkTalk.
The general gist of the call is that UK consumers are getting an extremely cheap service, and to expect price rises for UK Telecom services in general.

"Gary, what's going on here, I sold all my shares after what you said last Tuesday£

Are you talking about "The Gary" out of Final Space?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7NdHPQWTnU

"Shorted stocks list: this week’s most shorted stocks
Here's a list of the most shorted stocks this week to February 4 2022, by average sell volume from our UK client accounts."

They appear to be talking about their clients, rather than the general market. I'm guessing much will depend on whether the short position is notifiable, which could depend on the size of the short positions, and how long the position is left open; I've never shorted a stock in my life, so i'm guessing
I view the current drop as an anomally, with company and UK fundamentals suggesting a much higher price, but that's just my opinion.

"They messed up MiFid and now have a massive cost problem as they don t have the scale. RBS, Barclays and HSBC is way ahead of them."

Lloyds made a decision to focus on domestic retail banking, and step back from investment banking, is that what you mean by making a mess? Barclays went another way and decided to move big into investment banking, with all the associated risks. HSBC and STAN are currently extremely risky, in my opinion, due to the macro situation in China, around Hong Kong, Taiwan, Uighurs, and their new BFF Russia.
Focusing on domestic banking might not seem like a bad thing, if the macro geopolitical volcano's erupt; Granted Lloyds share price will take a hit, but not even close to the investment banks losses.

Has anything changed in respect of Lloyds finances, since they were 85p in Jan 2015, or 71p in Jan 2018? Not very much as far as I can tell, but I'll happily be corrected.
We've had the completion of Brexit, and the Covid hit, with European banks/Funds appearing to sing from the same hymn sheet as their political masters, including commentators from the ECB, etc; It seems to me that various EU entities are still fuming at the UK, for having the audacity to vote for leaving the club, so I suspect many have pulled their money out of the UK. Is it just me, or can others detect the simmering animosity, toward the UK, when EU fund managers and analysts are interviewed on media channels like CNBC?
At some point in the not distant future, everything will normalise and UK stocks will find their correct level.

Since the UK is raising interest rates faster and higher than the ECB, can someone explain to me why Deutsche Bank is outperforming Lloyds by 16%, over the last 6 months?

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjDz9Sfx-X1AhVSXsAKHaNDBvAQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&comparison=ETR%3ADBK&window=6M

All I can assume, is that UK retail investors are seen as easy targets for shaking out.

"My steak here is massive"

Stop it, I'm starving and can't stop thing about food now lol