Member Info for fleccy

"A good excuse to smack the market down from its recent highs."

I agree.

"fleccy
"Russia wouldn't stand a chance, in a conventional war, against NATO",,
Why do you believe that?"

Because the US on its own could defeat Russia in a conventional war, just look at the armament statistics between them. Nato outguns Russia in virtually all armament categories. Nato also have far better electronic surveilance and targetting technology too.

https://www.forces.net/news/russia-and-us-military-firepower-comparison

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSbx3N-y6MU

Just to add. I don't believe the market's see it as happening, since it would be really bad for Russia going forward, and they'll gain little from taking over Ukraine.

"This is because I don't believe the West has the Ba**s to opposite Russia in any substantial or meaningful way."

Why do you think that? Since Russia wouldn't stand a chance, in a conventional war, against NATO. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, then the Geopolitical repercussions will reshape the entire World, with all eyes then initially focusing on Taiwan, in respect of China's intentions. Russia invading Ukraine, would likely lead to the EU becoming a formidable military force in its own right, on Russia's doorstep, possibly on a similar scale to the US. The EU has a population around the same as the US, Italy, France, and Germany have the industrial capability to turn the EU into a superpower, would Putin want that in the long run?
If you're to believe the rhetoric, from politicians and in the media, you'd think war is inevitable, but the changes following that event would lead to a different World order.

Not entirely unexpected, in view of the merger between VM and O2. I wonder if VMO2 will have to pay compensation to VOD, for terminating the contract early. It's further proof that the tie up betwen VM and O2 was carried out in extremely short order, since the agreement between VOD & VM was only inked 6 months before the VM O2 merger. It makes me wonder what drove the urgency for the VM O2 merger, to be pushed through so quickly.
I'm surprised there isn't more articles mentioning this.

"let's just hope Putin, doesn't put the bootin & spoil the party?"

I can't help but think that routin-tootin Putin won't put the bootin, as the result of lootin & shootin would lead to the World reputin Putin as an imputin warmonger; Plus it would hit him and his mates in their most sensitive area, their wallets.

"The discounted cashflow models they use try to express the time value of money in todays terms and so make estimates about future interest rates, inflation, growth, scientific improvements etc. "

Actually, Telecom providers are better equiped to raise prices than Airlines, look at the recent CPI plus 3.9% price rises.

https://www.which.co.uk/news/2022/01/broadband-annual-price-rises-which-providers-will-hike-costs-the-most-in-2022/

Of course much depends on competition, and Telecom companies will allow customers onto new offers at the end of their current contract. I have a TV & Broadband contract with Sky, and my monthly bill was due to go up to £70 per month at the end of my then contract; I asked for a new contract and now pay £42 a month, for more or less the same service, at least I don't notice the differences.
There are no guarantees Air travel will resume as normal in the long term, businesses may decide to do more via Video Conferencing, and although Tourism Air Travel may see a boost from the lifting of restricions, and current low fares, the enthusiasm may decline as pricing normalises. Telecom services just tick over month after month, with the revenue clocking up with minimal intervention, and mostly guaranteed. Whereas Air Travel might be viewed as a luxury, internet & phone services are a necessity in this age of online banking, shopping, etc, etc.
Some will say i'm biased, due to my background and investments, but no matter how I try and view it, I see Telecoms as a much safer bet than Airlines.

Well Ryanair is over €18 again, will it reach the magic €20?

"You just need to look for inefficiencies in pricing in both and consistently put your money into those opportunities with a disciplined approach to position size, profit taking and risk management."

Wise words Compound; I always read your posts with interest, and haven't found disagreement with anything you've stated in any of them.
Much depends on investment window, as retail investors we should think in terms of years, not days and months. The professionals need to consistently show profits year on year, so they're time limited on holding paper losses.
Because Covid is so recent, it gives some brilliant examples of irrational pricing between sectors during the pandemic; For example, why were Telecom stocks severely affected along with Airline stocks, and why did some Airline stocks actually outperform Telecom stocks?

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VOD:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj1yduf8fn1AhXDlFwKHcveB8AQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&window=5Y&comparison=ETR%3ARY4C%2CLON%3ABT.A

The market decided to re-rate Telecom stocks downards, years ago, using competition, and constant cycles of investment into new tech with no return on the investment, as the excuses. I always like to use Ryanair as a comparison to my Telecom holdings, since it's easy to see the differences in market sentiment, and pricing. Ryanair doesn't pay a dividend, so investors are completely dependant on capital gains, with profit/loss entirely determined by when you buy, or sell. On the 5 year chart, linked above, the declines in Vodafone and BT are easy to see, but what's really surprising is the difference in performance during Covid, where Ryanair price outperformed Vodafone by more than 55%, and BT's by even more, which is especially surprising with BT and Vodafone still making profit, whereas Ryanair has lost Billions. The competition and constant investment in new Tech arguments, doesn't just apply to the Telecom sector. Because of concerns around ESG, the Airline industry is under the carbon emission cosh, facing big investment in new planes and carbon offseting. Competion is also a concern for Airlines, with many Airlines competing for the same routes, and Governments in Europe discussing alternatives like high speed train. Why is so much made of the infrastructure investment cycles, in respect of Telecoms, yet no mention of the investment in new planes required by the Airline industry?
My career has been in Telecoms, and I've seen the upgrade cycles and investment in new Network Tech, like the moves from PDH to SDH, and more recently to DWDM and Cloud. I totally disagree with the market argument that Telecoms will constantly require ongoing upgrade cycles, just to stand still. Once the FTTP and 5G upgrades are completed, I don't see any further network evolution for generations. FTTP has enough bandwidth capability to serve everyone's needs, and 5/6G will be more about cell density and coverage, with 6G just being an extension of 5G, not a replacement.

Recently added 7,583 Vodafone shares today, around 138p.

"This probably goes to explain the much higher peaks that people are mentioning, than the ones I remember from the time.
Anyway, enough of history, "we are where we are now" and let's hope it continues to improve."

Yep, even the London Stock Exchange is rubbish at historic charts. My personal opinion is that VOD will see the 220/230's levels again, which is what I'll hold out for, collecting divi's along the way.

"Yep have some in my plan £2.89 from Jan 14 & £2.78 from Nov 13!"

I was invested in Vodafone, in 2013, getting in around 160p, and selling out around 220p, before the Verizon Communications deal. Although GoogleFinance shows the share price at 280's/290's around the dates you mention, I have no recolection of it getting close to that. The easiest way to check, is to look at articles around the dates in question.

1st November 2013

"Vodafone Group plc (NYSE: VOD)'s share price rose 2.2 percent to 229.45 pence Friday morning, possibly fueled by a report on Bloomberg that a potential takeover of the British group by AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) is very much back on the cards."
https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/euronews-vodafone-shares-up-on-atandt-takeover-rumor/d/d-id/706381

"12 Nov 2013 — Shares in Vodafone, which have risen more than a third in the past year, closed up 1.7 per cent at 231.25p. "
https://www.ft.com/content/e62f7ad0-4b6e-11e3-8203-00144feabdc0

"JANUARY 27, 2014 7:35 AM UPDATED 8 YEARS AGO"
"Vodafone’s shares fell as much as 7 percent before ending down 3.9 percent at 224.78 pence as some investors had hoped that a deal process could start as early as February. AT&T’s stock was up 0.9 percent at $33.73."
https://www.reuters.com/article/att-vodafone-idUSL5N0L10EL20140127

"Tue 28 Jan 2014 19.26 GMT"
"That speculation was brought to a temporary halt on Monday when AT&T, the American telecoms group thought to be considering a bid for Vodafone, announced it "does not intend to make an offer" – which rules it out for at least six months. The announcement knocked 7% from the value of Vodafone's shares, which had been trading at 240p, compared with 170p one year ago."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/28/vodafone-sell-verizon-51bn-cash-shares-bonanza

I don't think GoogleFinance can deal with Consolidations/Rights Issues/etc, so it price averages rather than presenting a true historic value.

I'm surprised they didn't do that years ago. Other comms companies outsource their storage of spares, with the spares held geographically around the country. The Engineers will order the part and the other company will retrieve them from storage and deliver them to the Engineer, rather than the Engineer have to retrieve them from stores, or get another Engineer to deliver them. Bybox, and others, offer a similar service.

"fleccy. I value your posts, but "Narrative reversal" Give us a break? I googled it's meaning, But still don't have the faintest idea what is means, apart from abstract nonsense"

https://blog.collectivejourney.com/embracing-the-narrative-reversal-f56a0129e319

I thought it was easily understandable. The old narrative was to talk down Telecom stocks, with articles suggesting that Telecom stocks are a bottomless money pit, requiring constant infrastructure/license's outlay just to stand still. All of a sudden articles are talking up Telecom stocks, with articles talking about M&A/Activists/etc. I could have also used Counter-Narrative too. I used the phrase to describe the change from a Bear to a Bull narrative, stop being so picky lol.

"Time to take profit.....hold no position now.
Time for a beer, Speak tomorrow.....IMHO-DYOR"

I'll take your comment as a signal to top up.

"Lloyds Bank (NYSE: LYG) [LON: LLOY] thus becomes the choice to outperform as this effect seeps through the system. Lloyds' business is hugely sterling based, it's, as I've said before, hugely retail based. The business is, thus, almost entirely exposed to this effect."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485031-i-pick-lloyds-outperform-among-british-banks

"Ouch, let's hope he keeps his nose out of OUR pension fund, speaking as a Opt A member who left with 43 years service"

It wont affect you either way; You're either claiming your pension, or it's frozen awaiting your retirement. Any benefits already accumulated wont be affected.

This is a non story, BT closed its DB scheme in 2018. In the case of Sotherby's, there isn't much they can do. I was in a DB Pension scheme from early 1988 to 2013. The scheme I was in was already closed to new entrants, with newer employee's on DC schemes, but the company finally stopped any contributioons into the DB scheme and pushed everyone into a DC scheme; The excuse was that it was unfair for us to be members of a DB scheme, while newer members we're in DC schemes. I estimate that it's knocked over £3000 a year off my pension salary, I'm in the process of cashing in the DC pension, which has accumulated nearly £65,000.

"fleccy. It sounds to me like the vod sp is being driven by off book trades? It sounds a bit dodgy to me, but I am not complaining!"

Lots of speculative price pumping articles being churned out by the media machine currently, in conjuction with lots of Off Book trades; In two words, "Narrative reversal", sums it up.

I wont bother downloading the data again, but there was some 30 million volume Off book trades, from 14:44, reported after 17:00 missed off my data.