RE: Fleccy15 Jan 2023 09:00
"Bitcoin maybe a gamble and who can blame those for cashing out as and when. No one stays locked into a share for the long term much nowadays we have dynamic portfolios due to dynamic market."
No problem with the Fleccy/Fleecy thing, I understand with the autocorrect feature.
As for Bitcoin, my personal view is that we're close to its demise, it may have one or two years left in my opinion, but why do I think that?
With every Halving event, the cost of Bitcoin mining operations doubles unless the Miners invest in new more efficient rigs incurring an upfront capital cost. Since the miners will need to pay the ever increasing cost of ongoing operations, it's likely they'll have to sell their newly minted Bitcoin immediately. The miners probably wont have the money to sit on their hoard, since their finances are stretched already. The biggest issue for the miners is the power costs; They can invest in better equipment, like Intel Blockscale ASIC's in the case of Hive, but that comes at a cost which eats into the bottom line; Incidentally, Hive are saying, "Hive executives said at the time that the company would work with a separate manufacturer to integrate Intel’s blockchain accelerators into an air-cooled bitcoin mining system that, once in place, would boost its bitcoin mining hash rate by roughly 95%". If I'm reading that correctly, I think Hive are saying they will reach nearly 100% efficiency, or near doubling the Hash rate, using Intel's Blockchain Accelerators.
https://blockworks.co/news/hive-intel-efficiency-upgrade
The latest Bitcoin price spike is most likely due to the ever decreasing pool of die hard wealthy enthusiasts, or "whales". who're true believers in the Crypto cause. It's likely Gemini, Genesis and DCG will fail or need to raise significant amounts of cash, possibly leading to a fire sale of Crypto assets in the near future.
https://ambcrypto.com/gemini-founder-claims-genesis-and-dcg-are-beyond-commingled-gives-deadline/
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7
Apparently around 19 Million Bitcoin have so far been mined, so 2 Million to go. If you assume the price of Bitcoin stays around $20,000, I think it'll go lower, the total sale value of the remaining 2 million Bitcoin is around $40 Billion. They reckon it'll be around 2040 when the last Bitcoin is mined, so that $40 Billion would be spread over 17 years, with the cost of production doubling every 4 years, so diminishing returns.
I also believe the narrative about Bitcoin having value through limited supply is also false, since they've eliminated the supply constraint through the invention of the Satoshi, one Satoshi is equivalent to a hundred millionth of one Bitcoin; If you believe the intrinsic value of one Bitcoin is Zero, as I do, then one millionth of Zero is Zero, so one Bitcoin is equal in value to one Satoshi, Zero.
I'll leave it at that.