Member Info for fleccy

"Just had a reread of your post Flaky, you think at the end of 2023 that Bitcoin will be worth 12k when historically it enters a Bull market ahead of the next halving around now"

There are a number of reasons I think Bitcoin is all but finished:
The drop from $66,000 has probably irreparably damaged sentiment, with many locked in buyers just waiting for a chance to exit.
The Chinese and US governments could kill it through regulation, or flooding the market with Bitcoin seized from illegal activities.
The Bitcoin miners margins are squeezed due to the low price, they'll be inclined to sell rather than store tokens. The Halving will cut their profits in half when it happens.
The valuation narrative is wearing thin and the vocal supporters are running out of excuses to raise sentiment and pump the price.
As far as entering a Bull market, going into the next Halving, I suspect the herd has been thinned dramatically since the last Halving. To drive the price up they'll have to convince the burnt holders to buy more and encourage new buyers into the Token, no easy feat.

"Bitcoin may be the closest thing out there to a decentralised asset, but it is important to note that there does remain a lot of coins locked up by top wallets.
Some of the biggest owners above – the Chinese government, Satoshi Nakamoto, MicroStrategy, Block.one – own enough Bitcoin to cause significant market impact were they ever to sell in one go. Elsewhere, the consolidation of mining is also worth keeping an eye on.
These factors do present a layer of risk for Bitcoin, as the liquidity is not enough to absorb selling pressure of this scale without a substantial drop in price, should anything happen to these parties. "

https://invezz.com/news/2022/12/23/who-are-the-biggest-bitcoin-whales-25-stats-on-the-most-powerful-bitcoin-investors/

"Sorry that was meant to say very strong Monday and next week if Bitcoin stays above $23k, currently it $23.3k which is awsum, Tyler s says one of the charts looks like $120k could be on the cards and of 2023"

More like $12k by the end of 2023.
Who's buying, do they have a vested interest in Bitcoins price climbing and how much of the price is driven by wash trading?
A lot of wealthy individuals are locked in at far higher prices than $23k, it's funny how this latest pump starts on a Friday Afternoon/Evening soon after Genesis announces Chapter 11 bankruptcy. I'm cynical by nature, with good reason.

For the people who believe in the utopian hype version of DeFi, this is a good document to read; It gives comparisons between the current systems and the DeFi equivalent, but something that stood out for me was at the bottom of the table comparing traditional finance to DeFi, it says "Users assume all risks as a default, although private redress arrangements such as DeFi insurance offer some protection against losses". There are other reasons I don't buy into the hype, like the loss of Central Bank and Governmental control of currency and other things that I can't see Powers that Be allowing .

"https://wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/DeFi-Beyond-the-Hype.pdf"

When I glance through the document at the various applications and what's involved in implementing the technology, it seems far from simple to me. It'll require an army of software Engineers to maintain and manage the systems and we should just trust them, right? If you get defrauded in this decentralised utopia, or a glitch/fault somehow disappears your money into a black hole, who're you gonna call, Ghostbusters?

The document conclusion:

"Conclusion
DeFi is a new, fast-growing area. Yet it remains immature, with a variety of unresolved economic, technical, operational, and public policy issues that will be important to address. Although some protocols have attracted significant capital and the associated network effects in a short period of time, the DeFi sector remains volatile. DeFi has the potential to transform global finance, but activity to date has concentrated on speculation, leverage, and yield generation among the existing community of digital asset holders. In addition, the very flexibility, programmability, and composability that make DeFi services so novel also expose new risks, from hacks to unexpected feedback loops among protocols.
Retail investors, professional traders, institutional actors, regulators, and policy-makers will need to temper enthusiasm for the innovative potential of DeFi with a clear understanding of its challenges. Developers are actively working to address vulnerabilities and introduce new mechanisms to manage risks efficiently, but the process is ongoing. DeFi will ultimately succeed or fail based on whether it can fulfill its promise of financial services that are open, trust-minimized, and non-custodial, yet still trustworthy"

Just to add, all the serious research on DeFi appears to revolve around Ethereum, not Bitcoin.

"The price of doing the same old thing is far higher than the price of change"

Currency Exchange, is probably a single use case for Blockchain using Stable Coins. Any financial system requires technology to run on and that doesn't come cheap, throw in regulation around money laundering, tax evasion, etc and that adds an extra layer of cost and management to the system. Decentralised Finance wont be decentralised at all, unless they mean Cloud based networks run by institutions using private Blockchains to maintain and ensure Data security and resilience. Infrastructure, connectivity and the rest also doesn't just happen, someone has to build it and they expect a return on the invested capital, and then there are operating costs for maintaining the networks. Financial institutions are licensed to deal with money, so any service will have to be managed and regulated carefully.
Since everything is moving onto the cloud, Blockchain will probably play a big part in securing data within the cloud, but to describe it as DeFi is pure hype and misleading in my opinion.

"I shall turn off my phone and enjoy the rises at home rather than awaiting to hear from a limp biscuit"

Thought I'd give the rampers a free run, how will you get a rise with your limp biscuit?

"£100,000 investment in Gold in 2003 would now be worth £676,000, not bad for an invest and forget asset."

That got me thinking. £100,000 would have bought 500 ounces of Gold in 2003, or approximately 14Kg. Someone could have bought the Gold, melted it into two 7Kg dumbbell weights and got fitter while got richer.

"The risk of not investing or believing in it is greater than believe or investing. A bank probably give 3% less tax on investment when inflation is above 10%. One could say this is a crazy risk putting money in the bank"

I agree, We have around 5% in cash with the rest invested in Dividend paying stocks. I don't trust cash either, but I wouldn't invest in Crypto, as the value is based purely on sentiment and any profit is capital gain, or loss, only when you sell, since investing in tokens and storing off exchange doesn't pay dividends.
I also don't invest in Gold, but Gold has held its value well over the last 20 years; Gold was around £200 an ounce in 2003 and is now £1552 an ounce, an increase of 676%, so £100,000 investment in Gold in 2003 would now be worth £676,000, not bad for an invest and forget asset.

Gold is a physical asset, it has uses in medicine, jewelry, electronics. There's a limit to how much you can subdivide Gold, whereas there's no limit on the subdivision of Bitcoin; As I pointed out in previous posts, 21 million Bitcoin = 2.1 Quadrillion Satoshi's and if the value of Bitcoin sky rockets there's nothing stopping them from subdividing further. The scarcity argument is false, since subdivision would allow an infinite number of Bitcoin sub-derived tokens. Common sense suggests Bitcoin is a hyped up entity with no tangible value, a Bitcon.

This is what Nouriel Roubini thinks.

"Nouriel Roubini: 99% of crypto is a scam"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEYEc3uJjIA

This is what Jamie Dimon thinks, I agree with him.

"JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon: Bitcoin is a 'hyped-up fraud'"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdIooHrQeK8

I think Crypto's benefited from the low interest rate environment; With funds and wealthy individuals ploughing money into growth and Risk assets, in the hope that some of the investments will turn into another Google, Amazon, or Meta. Look at Cathy Wood's ARK investment fund and Softbank's Vision fund, both investing in risky assets with many falling flat; For example what possessed Softbank to invest $10.65 billion in WeWork? The Vision fund has recorded losses of around $26 billion; Personally I could never understand the hype surrounding WeWork, as I'd visited Regus office developments 15 years ago, with the company using a similar business model to WeWork. You'd think someone at Softbank would have looked at Regus and thought twice about throwing money at WeWork, but apparently not. Look at the money thrown at FTX without due diligence, it beggars belief.
My point is, these guys appear to have little respect for money and take chances with investors cash. Some of the Crypto investments will likely reap some benefits down the road, many probably wont. Just my opinion.

"youre stuck in the past ... and just want control and complaince maintained by those that always have had such control (which to an extent will of course continue ... i'm not so naive to see a revolution... just yet !) ... however more will have control over their own finances... and a smaller slice of the cake to the 'people abusive' institututions ... whats not to like about that !"

I've put a lot of thought into Crypto/Blockchain and I can't see how the DeFi utopia evolves out of the current system. I know as little about Crypto and Blockchain as anyone else on here, but I can only see specialized uses for blockchain, probably limited to specific business use cases. I'm not sure what you mean by abusive institutions as I can change my Bank if I want to, and I did recently switch broadband providers with a phone call, although I could have done it online; If anyone I do business with isn't providing a satisfactory service I just bin them, I don't need Blockchain to do it. DeFi and public Blockchain has the feel of something that's easily talked about, but would be practically impossible to build and run at scale.

Just to add, one of the uses touted for Crypto, is allowing third world populations access to services in the absence of banking facilities, but you don't need Crypto for that. Check out what M-Pesa has done for Kenya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n87VBVbjUeE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTWJ5kqLU1o

Even if you were to use Blockchain instead of M-Pesa, it would still need a network of agents for cash conversion incurring transaction charges similar to M-Pesa. M-Pesa also drove up mobile phone usage in Africa.
Check out the M-Farm app 3 minutes 12 seconds into the video below, it appears mobile phones are more important in developing countries, Crypto and Blockchain isn't required.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGCxiD4qREM

"fleccy, perhaps you may need to do some reading into what a Blockchain"

I read the investopedia article and it was clearly written by a Crypto fanboy. The single point of failure argument is true of any connection, even Blockchain; If your phone doesn't get a signal, or your broadband is down you can't transact, simple as. The other example about a bank, or business, losing power and not being able to transact is also misdirection, since the ability to house separate Primary and Backup servers at various remote locations has been available for 15 years. If you want to give me specific examples of how you think Blockchain will make day to day public transactions easier, I'll give you my opinion. I could imagine private Blockchains would be used by regulated businesses to communicate internally and internationally, but as far as a public DeFi type service, replacing existing systems, I don't see it. Arguments about simple international money transfers using Crypto is also flawed, since money laundering regulation would place barriers on any international transactions, using Crypto, should regulation come in. This idea that Crypto will somehow shield people from Government seizure of assets is also pure fantasy, imagine the Chinese Government wanting to seize someone's Bitcoin, they'd just bang them up until they handed over the key.
In summary, Private regulated Blockchains YES, unregulated public DeFi NO. Every argument touting Crypto can be blown out of the water, apart from the one about carrying money across borders in a cold wallet, but what would stop customs confiscating that, or your bag containing it being stolen?
I'm looking forward to reading how anything will change for the better in a public Cryptoverse domain, because all I've ever read is aspiration without substance.

"Direct ownership of financial assets without intermediaries is mind-blowing in terms of security, transparency, and the ability to audit reserves 24/7. "

I don't understand how all this will work, what do you mean by Financial assets? How would shares be traded on Blockchain, or how would bank accounts work, who'd manage and maintain the blockchain, how would you get compensation if transactional data is lost due to faults, etc, etc, etc. I don't see how transacting over Blockchain will make everything simpler, since it's really simple now. I can already check my bank account 24/7 and get live updates on my account; I can also make transfers and create standing orders in minutes, what will blockchain change and how will it be simpler?

The Australian bank stable coin is based on Ethereum, so it uses the Keccak-256 hash function instead of SHA-256.

"fleecy- alot of animals hibernate in the winter, you should try it"

I do you guys a favour and I still get abuse. I spent 10 minutes building those charts, where's the gratitude? lol

The weather is snowy here.

The links are charts derived from Google Finance data. They'll update daily, probably mid afternoon'ish. You have to pay to see the nude pics of me dancing around a May pole

Don't say I don't do anything to help you guys:

QBT High, Low, Close

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTzEFi1PoMev9Mwbnd2LkayNkkNxSnnqhUUXEWgqnsq9PRoUSedNxWYlE-6zAEoeCTQLk5WXdCmi_4x/pubchart?oid=1937898192&format=interactive

QBT Daily Volumes

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTzEFi1PoMev9Mwbnd2LkayNkkNxSnnqhUUXEWgqnsq9PRoUSedNxWYlE-6zAEoeCTQLk5WXdCmi_4x/pubchart?oid=2085752711&format=interactive

QBT Weekly Volumes

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTzEFi1PoMev9Mwbnd2LkayNkkNxSnnqhUUXEWgqnsq9PRoUSedNxWYlE-6zAEoeCTQLk5WXdCmi_4x/pubchart?oid=903223882&format=interactive

I have no idea who supersonic is, I've been posting on LSE since 2013. If you really believe I'm this other person, then your delusional and drifting through the Scary Door?

"You have been posting all night, and now in the morning. get some rest, Your employers won't mind"

If you really believe I'm employed to post my views about Crypto, then you're completely wrong. The only reason I'm posting this morning is because of the constant insults from the boiler room crew on here. Also contrary to what some suggest, I don't sit on here all day and night, like some, I only need to read the history and then post a response.