Member Info for fleccy

"I was reading earlier about how a single whale could be controlling the whole BTC market"

I saw that too, the article was talking about 2016/17, when the price was held above a certain level, and suggesting something similar is occurring now. There are a couple of ways Bitcoin could go, If HODL'rs keep holding and liquidity dries up, small trades could cause big moves either way; The bulls think buying pressure will send the price ballistic, but much will depend on the miners and whether they can afford to store their mined Bitcoin. If one or more of the Whales need cash in a hurry, low liquidity could cause big drops in the price leading to a cascade type event. Weighing the odds, there's a far greater chance Bitcoin will collapse in value rather than reaching Cathy Wood's prediction of $500,000 to $1,000,000 per Bitcoin.

Anyone interested in Crypto related assets should read the document in the link below:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1133404/TR_Privacy_edits_Future_financial_services_regulatory_regime_for_cryptoassets_vP.pdf

The regulation will be rolled out in phases:
Phase 1
"Fiat-backed stablecoins which are used for payment (Phase 1)"
"For the purposes of this consultation, “fiat-backed stablecoins” are expected to include stablecoins that seek to maintain a stabilised value of the cryptoasset by reference to, and which may include the holding of, one or more specified fiat currencies."
"Further details on the government’s approach to fiat-backed stablecoins will be set out in due course. Various types of tokens which are currently marketed or labelled as “stablecoins” might not meet the requirements under these regimes". Checkout "Figure 3.A Scope of regime for fiat-backed stablecoins vs
broader cryptoasset regime"

Phase 2
"In Phase 2, the government’s intention is to introduce a regime to regulate broader cryptoasset activities, such as the trading of and investment in cryptoassets. Phase 2 will be focused on targeting the activity areas associated with (i) a higher degree of risk from a consumer and overall market perspective and (ii) greater opportunities to support the UK’s growth agenda. As a consequence, not all cryptoasset activities are proposed to form part of Phase 2. Chapter 4 sets this out in more detail."
"Table 4.A Proposed scope of cryptoasset activities to be regulated", Is a good place to look; it shows the various phases and references to the relevant Chapters.
In summary
After browsing through the document, my interpretation is that they'll first introduce and regulate Fiat backed stable coins, probably issued by Central Banks. Once Stable coins are established, they'll introduce "Asset-referenced tokens", "a subset of exchange tokens which include commodity-linked tokens and crypto-backed tokens", see Box 2.A. My guess is they're looking for ways to trade commodities, stocks and other real world assets using Asset-referenced tokens, then use Fiat backed stable coins to electronically trade back into Fiat, possibly on Crypto Exchanges built and managed by institutions like the London Stock Exchange.
I don't think any of this bodes well for the current Crypto currency crop, since regulated commodities and stock exchanges will likely trade in things like asset referenced tokens, and the Fiat backed stable coins will likely be managed by Central banks. Why would you need Bitcoin?
The document does mention Crypto's, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but refers to them as unbacked crypto assets whose price and value is driven by " speculative investment decisions". Regulation will likely kill off unbacked Crypto Currencies in my opinion.

"In 5 years there’ll be BT VM02 and City Fibre. I predict VM02 will buy CF. And then there were 2…. As we all thought lol"

I very much doubt VMO2 would be allowed to take over CityFibre, for the same reason Openreach wouldn't. It's possible that CityFibre may become an Altnet consolidator, but much would depend on Geography, backhaul costs and the number of customers the Altnet's have managed to connect. Vodafone would be a possibility for taking over CityFibre, and consolidating/connecting the various Altnets over the old C&WW backbone network.
Something else to consider, the whole thing has become hodgepodge of councils, Altnets, builders, etc all setting up their own limited networks, many in isolation, leading to a free for all. Scale is what counts in Telecoms, and as competition ramps up economies of scale will take precedence.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2022/06/colchesters-uk-dark-fibre-network-benefits-from-new-high-density-cable.html

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/09/persimmon-homes-uk-isp-fibrenest-to-launch-wholesale-service.html

Every man and his dog have jumped on the bandwagon.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTzEFi1PoMev9Mwbnd2LkayNkkNxSnnqhUUXEWgqnsq9PRoUSedNxWYlE-6zAEoeCTQLk5WXdCmi_4x/pubchart?oid=226023570&format=interactive

"will keep it near the top"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GbCg71kf9g

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VOD/major-shareholding-notification-y07qua4xmti3r6y.html

"@fleccy, to be honest, because it retraces after the payment is done to shareholders "

I had a feeling that was your reasoning, are you confusing payment day with ex-dividend day? On ex-dividend day the stock exchange automatically reduces the opening price by the value of the dividend. There's an argument that the share price will go up around payment day, since dividend reinvestment is possible. The dividend payable on the 6th Feb was already adjusted for on the 29th Dec 2022, ex-dividend day.

"Taken profit @134.8 - I will be looking for a re-entry point after the dividend payment. bought at 114 "

Teletech, out of curiosity why will you wait until after the dividend payment?

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/252663/Consultation-Openreach-Proposed-FTTP-Offer-starting-1-April-2023-Equinox-2.pdf

"serial trolling from a complete loon."

Ha I'll take that as a compliment from someone who pastes the same post in day after day, sometimes twice a day, or possibly more. You know the post I'm talking about, it usually starts with something like "we have news on many fronts due". You should change your userid to Groundhog Day

"In which case simply go away then … you narcissistic fool !"

I was mentioned so I responded. Don't tell me, tell KingHas1, he's the one that mentioned me and his post required a response.
And less of the insults Pas, or I might start throwing a few back. You don't read anything from me questioning your intelligence, or demeaning you, for your choice of QBT as an investment.

"He has actually started posting positive things about QBT, a true sign of an attention seeker."

You must love me posting on here.
Sorry but I would never invest in QBT, In my opinion they changed the name and reinvented themselves to attract investment, and cash in on the hype around Crypto.
R&D doesn't lead to Revenue 9 times out of 10.
I'm not interested in AIM stocks, even ones that generate enough revenue to finance operations, unfortunately QBT revenue is pitiful and massively below its operating costs, with debt increasing year on year. QBT is a gamblers investment choice. I'll be really surprised if the company becomes sustainable and survives in the long term.

"What we’re waiting for is for FG to throw us a bone."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YVAEfs8V0k

I'll do some Mikey commentary, for today, in his absence:

Oh well - looks like we are heading back up to the mid 90’s . Another day that tells you I was wrong about this going down to the mid 80's.

"but think it’s to control the beast to not monopolising everything, and making it “fair” for competitors? Or do you think there is a deeper reason?"

BT has significant market power and has since it was privatised. In the 1990's the Cable companies went bust and consolidated; C&W tried to compete on the business side, but eventually broke up with Vodafone taking over Cable & Wireless Worldwide around 2012; All attempts to introduce significant competition has seen little success. The current Altnet race has a similar feel to the rollout of Cable companies in the 1980's/1990's.
I think OFCOM's eventual aim is to completely split Openreach off from BT, probably once BT is free of the BTPS, when the trustee's go for an insurance buyout; This wouldn't be a bad thing for shareholders, as Openreach would be a FTSE 100 company in it's own right. Openreach as a stand alone company, would likely be the Telecom equivalent of the National Grid.

"However, it is unfortunate that the cost of the acquisition from half a decade or so ago - is approximately the same as BT’s market capitalisation today."

That's because the market is undervaluing BT and Telecom stocks in general. BT's current P/E is around 8.

"Just briefly hit 130 again."

Mixed feelings here, less shares from divi top up.

IP3LY, OFCOM has driven a lot of BT's business and investment decisions over the last 20 years; Look at Equinox 2, awaiting OFCOM's review this month, as an example of how restricted BT is doing anything. As far as the share price drop, I'd say it was more like 2015 and you forgot to mention BT's significant purchase of EE, which was a good move in my opinion.

I couldn't have put it better myself Carrington, but the wage rise will have only had a limited effect on this result. The reasoning behind my view that bottom line profit growth should be the focus, is the transformation to a fully converged networks.
The cost savings will come from:
PSTN switch off and move to a converged FTTP/Cloud network
Less Engineers required to maintain Network
Massive Exchange closure program, reducing lease liabilities and operating costs
Legacy PSTN/Access Network have high energy requirements, whereas Passive Optical Networks don't, BT should see their electricity bill reducing over time.

They're just a few things I could think of, off the top of my head.

"Cityfiber have just announced job cuts down from 2000, to 1600.
not sure how they expect to achieve 25% coverage with a workforce that small."

They use contractors for the Fibre build and I'm guessing their Head End equipment is modular container/cabin builds, done by other firms, so they can probably get away with a smallish admin team, a small NOC team and a larger team of Field Engineers to deal with faults and installation problems. I'm only guessing all that though.

"I don’t get why news headlines highlights a revenue dip
Why not highlight the increase in EBITDA"

It's easy, by highlighting a drop in revenue they have an excuse to drop the stock price. As I've said about 1000 times now, BT isn't a revenue growth play, it's a Net Income growth play through cost cutting. I know where my divi's will be going next week.