Member Info for fleccy

Daniel, basically an Off Book trade is any trade taking place away from the Exchange. If I transferred my shares to you rather than selling via the Exchange, and you paid me directly, that would be an Over The Counter (Off Book) Trade. Trading through Dark Pools are also Off Book. Off Book trades aren't price setting, so large volumes can be moved without moving the On Exchange price, with the Off Book trade price likely going through at the On Exchange price. I don't agree with Off Book trades, because I believe it allows brokers and big players to move large volume's away from the Exchange, making it easier to to move the On Exchange price with algo's. What would stop large brokers directing all their sell side trades On Exchange, and all their buy trades Off Exchange, or vice versa? Any trade that doesn't affect the price distorts the market in my opinion.

"Trouble is Suthy Bobcat wants to shut any positivity down so he can control this board"

The thing is Jambone, he has as much right to express an opinion as anyone else. What if you're enthusiasm for QBT is misplaced, and they fail to launch a commercial product? Under those circumstances wouldn't he be doing prospective investors a favour, by encouraging caution before making a large investment? Jambone you pump QBT with an almost religious fervor, but just like religion is based on scripture, your enthusiasm is based on little more than the word of FG. I'm not suggesting that QBT are wrong in their statements, but there's no guarantee their offerings will scale up and transform into commercially viable products.

When investing everyone should remember the proverb Caveat Emptor (buyer beware), since it's easier to lose money investing than it is to make money. Bobcat is fully within his rights to express his opinion, just as you are yours. When someone misses out on investing in a winner, they've only missed an opportunity and still have their capital; Invest in a company that goes bust and you lose a lot more.

Yesterday's trades really raised the Off Book tally for this month so far. There's been a trend of higher Off Book Trades since July. September is currently in flux, but it's looking like it'll be another big month for Off Book trades:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=2070430100&format=interactive

"Some very large trades going on this week"

Yesterday was a biggie:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=570999884&format=interactive

"Why should FG make any statements? he is just getting on with the job at hand. His job is to move the company forward. If it is taking longer , who cares?. Its not FG's job to police the share price. If the MM's drop it , so what."

The traders/MM's wont be interested in QBT, there isn't enough volatility for them to be interested. According to the London Stock Exchange there was 27 trades yesterday, and 18 on Monday; Up to yesterday, there's only been 188 trades since the start of September.

Big Off Book Volume today, with a total of 931,253,664 shares traded; Out of that I think 66,805,595 were On Exchange.

Depends on the price and the hype, if the stock price was lower than my current average price per share then I'd probably watch and wait, If the price was much higher than my average cost per share I'd likely jump out and sit on the cash, and then watch and wait. In truth I don't see a bid happening, but it's worth having a plan.

My guess is that the BT Board would reject a bid immediately, unless it was so high they're compelled to approach shareholders, and a hostile takeover would be really difficult to achieve with all the defences in place. If a bid did happen, the price would likely climb close to the bid price in short order, so that'd be the time to ask me what I'd do.

Mandy you should read through what you've typed, as it doesn't make sense. If BT was successfully taken over it would no longer be a UK listed company; In payment for their current stock, holders would either receive cash, or shares in Deutsche Telekom, either way BT would no longer exist. If you wanted exposure to the previously owned BT assets, you'd have to buy shares in DT and you wouldn't only be investing in what was once BT's assets, you'd be investing DT's worldwide assets. As far as me selling out if DT, Altice, or whoever made a bid, It would make sense since I believe the bid would be rejected and failing that the Government would step in; I'd see it as a no brainer to jump out under those circumstances, and jump back in when the dust settled if a bid did fail.

I spoke too soon earlier, I've just read that Openreach have now added my local exchange to their rollout plan. That means we'll soon have Openreach, CityFibre and VMO2.

Barclays on Friday.

Tuesday 12 September

Ashtead Group PLC dividend payment date

Foxtons Group PLC dividend payment date

Lindsell Train Investment Trust PLC dividend payment date

Lloyds Banking Group PLC dividend payment date

LMS Capital PLC dividend payment date

Wednesday 13 September

BT Group PLC dividend payment date

Franchise Brands PLC dividend payment date

Monks Investment Trust PLC dividend payment date

Thursday 14 September

abrdn Japan Investment Trust PLC ex-dividend payment date

Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC special ex-dividend payment date

Apax Global Alpha Ltd ex-dividend payment date

Bakkavor Group PLC ex-dividend payment date

Cairn Homes PLC ex-dividend payment date

Camellia PLC ex-dividend payment date

Dalata Hotel Group PLC ex-dividend payment date

Energean PLC ex-dividend payment date

Franchise Brands PLC ex-dividend payment date

Fresnillo PLC dividend payment date

Goodwin PLC ex-dividend payment date

Henderson High Income Trust PLC ex-dividend payment date

International Public Partnerships Ltd ex-dividend payment date

Intertek Group PLC ex-dividend payment date

Irish Continental Group PLC ex-dividend payment date

JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust PLC ex-dividend payment date

Luceco PLC ex-dividend payment date

LXi REIT PLC ex-dividend payment date

Macfarlane Group PLC ex-dividend payment date

Melrose Industries PLC ex-dividend payment date

Murray Income Trust PLC dividend payment date

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust PLC ex-dividend payment date

Triple Point Energy Transition PLC ex-dividend payment date

Triple Point Social Housing REIT PLC ex-dividend payment date

TT Electronics PLC ex-dividend payment date

Unite Group PLC ex-dividend payment date

VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities PLC dividend payment date

Friday 15 September

4imprint Group PLC dividend payment date

Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust PLC special dividend payment date

Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust PLC dividend payment date

Barclays PLC dividend payment date

Brunner Investment Trust PLC dividend payment date

Clarkson PLC dividend payment date

Halfords Group PLC dividend payment date

Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC dividend payment date

Ibstock PLC dividend payment date

IMI PLC dividend payment date

Informa PLC dividend payment date

Lancashire Holdings Ltd dividend payment date

Montanaro European Smaller Companies Trust PLC dividend payment date

NatWest Group PLC dividend payment date

Pershing Square Holdings Ltd dividend payment date

Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC dividend payment date

Spirent Communications PLC dividend payment date

TI Fluid Systems PLC dividend payment date

Vesuvius PLC dividend payment date

Witan Investment Trust PLC dividend payment date

Monday 18 September

Pearson PLC dividend payment date

Quilter PLC dividend payment date

Shaftesbury Capital PLC dividend payment date

Shell PLC dividend payment date

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1

Lloyds dividends are paid today, and BT's tomorrow. I'm a bit cynical when I see price increases around dividend payment dates.

"The ultimate battle between the great guru of share investment and also mandy."

I'm not an investment Guru, I'm just a retail investor who has an opinion based on what BT have been saying over the last three years. I do believe in the compounding effect of dividend reinvestment, used as a means to grow stock holding's and future dividend returns in the event of price drops. If people believe Aus and Mandy's view of BT's future then they should listen to them and follow their lead, I have my own opinions and will invest accordingly.

Mandy keeps attacking my investment choices in BT, Lloyds and Vodafone, and is correct that I'm currently sitting on large paper losses, but that comes down to initial investment timing and market sentiment directed at UK stocks since then. My initial investments were quite large, but the price drops over the last 3 years have allowed me to double our dividend returns and reduce average cost per share, now on target for over £25,000 tax free over the next year and the choice of taking income, or dividend reinvestment. Sure dividends could be suspended or dropped, but that's the chance you take when you invest; Anyone who invests in non dividend paying Growth stocks that stagnate, or go backward, are either locked in or faced with selling at a loss, at least with dividend paying stocks you still get something when the price drops, and have more choices.

Aus I'll deal with some of your points:

"I was reading last week about satellite backhaul for 5G Vodafone being at the forefront. It’s probably not quite there, yet aside for exceptions rather than the rule, this could be the beginning of several services BT ( according to you) rely on coming under pressure."

Backhauling 4/5G, via satellite, is something BT are trialing with OneWeb to provide service to remote areas where population density is low, there's also talk about them possibly using it as a backup system for critical services. RF backhauling has bandwidth limitations, so what might be feasible for remote low population areas isn't sufficient for urban use.

"Openreach are only one large scale wholesale contract away from disaster, even if they share network providers & play them off against each other. & right now, i’m struggling to see how BT will complete their FTP schedule in time, without buying smaller operators."

BT are Openreach's biggest customer and if other CP's want to use Openreach then they have to use BT's ducts and poles, alternatively they can use their own approved contractors, as I believe Sky are doing, or use BT's infrastructure via the PIA product offerings. It doesn't make a lot of sense, what you're suggesting, since any CP wanting national coverage have to use BT/Openreach.

As far as BT reaching 25 million premises by December 2026, it's just a number, I really don't care if it takes them until Dec 2027 to meet their target. I live in an area that is littered with BT manhole covers, yet we don't show on Openreach's rollout plan, we are already covered by VMO2 and CityFibre have recently installed Fibre around this area; This would be a really easy area for Openreach to upgrade to FTTP, yet they've held off, I think they're leaving some easy rollouts to the end and will probably increase their rollout speed in 2024/5.

I'd say the risk isn't with BT/Openreach, but with the Altnets and to a certain extent VMO2; Granted VMO2 and Nexfibre are privately owned and not publicly traded, but they have their own debt issues and are limited by the economics of their business. It isn't like we haven't been here before, UK Telecom history is littered with has-been's that were going to destroy BT's dominance, yet BT's still dominates and they're bust or under new ownership. BT has an amazing array of assets and is worth far more than the market is currently assigning to it.

More throw away comments from Mandy with nothing backing them up.

Mandy I think you should enlighten us all with the technical analysis backing up your assertion, that "Without a bid, BT will continue to be in terminal decline". I'd be really interested in debating your analysis and seeing if it has substance, but I doubt you'll produce anything since you don't appear to know anything.

One thing I will add Mandy, in the unlikely event a bid does materialise, I'll look at selling sharpish before the Government kick it into touch and the share price drops back, at which point I'll refill my boots.

"Even on the managements own 'adjusted' metrics, they plan to reduce EBITDAL by 9% and adjusted FCF by 31% in 2024 year, compared 2023."

You're not wrong, the F24 guidance does show a reduction in EBITDAal from €14.7 billion to €13.3 billion (-9.5%), and Adjusted FCF coming down from €4.8 billion to €3.3 billion(-31%); Whether or not they decide to reduce the dividend on the back of that isn't clear.

In the FY23 figures there was an adjustment to FCF of €2,467 Billion for Spectrum and licences, which might not be replicated next year, meaning actual FCF may be higher. Equity dividends aren't part of the FCF calculation and is subtracted later as part of the Net Debt calculation, so FCF isn't really relevant to paying the dividend. The share buybacks have now ceased, which were also accounted for exclusive of the FCF part of the calculation and lower down in the Net Debt calculation.

What I'm saying is it's too simplistic to just quote EBITDAal and Adjusted FCF, as there's more to the sustainability of the dividend than those two figures alone. The cash Flow calculations are accessed via the Cash Flow tab at the top left of the web page linked to:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubhtml

Here's the thing with Mandy, he claims to own BT but gets upset when dividend reinvestment is suggested as an investment strategy; Clearly dividend reinvestment is a bad strategy in companies in terminal decline, but is BT in that category? I think not. He claims to want a bid and takeover of BT, but why get upset by investors reinvesting their dividends while the price is low, since it has no impact on any external bidder's decision to make a bid? Reinvest dividends, don't reinvest dividends, it makes no odds to me personally I'll just pursue my own strategy.

This fantasy about posters on here being associated with the CWU is clearly ridiculous, so I have no idea why Mandy pushes this stupid narrative.

I'm not sure why any of us engage with Mandy, after all he/she is:

A few bricks short of a full load

As thick as a brick

A blunt tool

As thick as mince

As mad as a hatter

Away with the Fairies

Somewhat Dolally

Barking mad

A few sandwiches short of a picnic

And has Bats in belfry.

Need I go on?

"I was told patch leads in fibre build have been offered voluntary redundancy with a deadline to go by end of December."

Abject, I notice you use the term "Patch Lead" in reference to Installation/Provide teams who do the patching within the Network sites; I've always used the term patch lead when referring to a lead connecting between two points, not the people running jumpers. We used the term Jumpers in reference to permanent connections to the rear of the DDF positions and the term patch leads (patches) for temporary connections to the front of the DDF positions, usually when a high order fault occurred and temporary connection's were required. Do BT actually use the term patch lead as a job description for someone who supervises teams who install jumpers (patches)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patch_cable#:~:text=A%20patch%20cable%2C%20patch%20cord,are%20connected%20with%20patch%20cords.

"As the internet has become an essential part of our daily lives, net neutrality has played a critical role in allowing people to access the content and services they want, from web browsing to watching streaming videos to uploading content on social media. It has also enabled new content providers to reach millions of new customers and achieve scale quickly – for example, four years after its UK launch, TikTok had almost 19 million UK adult visitors.

However, because the net neutrality rules constrain the activities of the ISPs, they may be seen as restricting their ability to innovate, develop new services and manage their networks. This could lead to poor consumer outcomes, including consumers not benefiting from new services as quickly as they should, or at all. These potential downsides might become more pronounced in the future, as people’s use of online services expands, traffic increases, and more demands are placed on networks.

We want to make sure that as technology evolves and more of our lives move online, net neutrality continues to support innovation, investment and growth, by both content providers and ISPs. Getting this balance right will improve consumers’ experiences online, including through innovative new services and increased choice."

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/consultations-and-statements/category-1/net-neutrality-review

" Infrastructure is dead and buried in real terms, metaphorically and literally."

Good look providing services without infrastructure. The business models of Meta, Alphabet, Netflix, Amazon, etc are supported by regulation, in other words the regulators are controlling Telecom providers to allow the Tech Giant's and Broadcasters subsidised access to consumers, while at the same time the Telecom providers are forced to increase bandwidth capacity to support the new online services.

Broadcast services have historically been transmitted using Radio Frequencies, so Broadcasters have had to pay to send their channels to the mast, and then pay the mast owners money to mount antenna's as well as maintain the transmission equipment. The BBC have to pay a Telecom provider to carry the digitised video to the masts and also pay the mast owner, now they can choose to stream it over the internet for a fraction of the cost, requiring the Telecom providers to increase bandwidth to support all these new streaming services; Currently we're in a transition period where some Broadcaster still use RF to transmit some service, but that'll soon change and all Broadcasts will soon be streamed over the internet. It's the same situation with Sky, soon they'll no longer need to provide TV over satellite and will instead stream all their content and cease broadcasting via satellite.

The Telecom providers are currently pinned down by Net Neutrality regulation, which wasn't meant to subsidise broadcast services and Net Neutrality regulation is currently under review so things may change in the future.