Member Info for fleccy

Poker, short term inflation is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned, at some point it'll be back at 2% and I'll still hold my shares and be receiving dividends. As long as the companies I'm invested in don't go bust, which is highly unlikely, at some point the cycle will turn and the prices will likely to return to historic norms. Still on the subject of inflation, equity investments are well known to be a hedge against inflation, as is property and commodities like Gold; What's been happening with UK stock valuations over the last 5 years has been untypical, so I've decided to fill my boots while my chosen stocks are down and await price recovery.

As far as hedging, that has its own risk and reduces potential profit. I'm not interested in any shorting strategies, as they can backfire on you and leave you with unlimited losses, look at the Volkswagen Porsche short squeeze as an example of what can happen.

There's always a risk with investing, I've weighed up my risks and decided what my investment strategy is, it's up to others to decide theirs. Poker what's right for me may not be right for you and vice versa, and unlike the US where all you had to do was invest in the indices and watch them grow massively, the UK has been a different animal since 2015. Before anyone says why didn't you invest in the US instead of UK stocks, my reply is that I don't have a crystal ball and hindsight doesn't help with investing after the fact.

"Fairly logical Fleccy, or invest in something else or at least diversify."

I could diversify and look elsewhere, but I don't see many stocks with lower P/E's or higher yield's; Add to that I really like BT's strategy, so why wouldn't I top up rather than look elsewhere. I could take chances and invest in "Growth", or AIM, with high risk, high reward, but generating income year on year and putting that money back is giving me a different form of growth. Me and my wife are on target for over £25,000 in dividends next year and if we decided to reinvest that money in one of our current holdings, with the prices around current levels:

£25,000 would buy 55,134 Lloyds shares, adding a further £1,521 to the dividend income going forward

£25,000 would buy 30,585 Vodafone shares, adding a further £2,385 to the dividend income going forward

£25,000 would buy 20,954 BT shares, adding a further £1,613 to the dividend income going forward

Going off those figures and assuming nothing would change on the dividend front, Vodafone would be the obvious first choice, BT second and Lloyds third; But I'm a bit unsure if Vodafone will maintain the dividend and there's more chance Lloyds will increase it's dividend than BT.

Decisions, decisions, decisions, what is obvious is that three more years of dividend reinvestment and the annual dividend income will likely go from £25,000 to over £30,0000, and the share holdings will also be larger. As far as I'm concerned, balancing all the risks, dividend reinvestment in reasonably safe blue chip companies is among the safest investments I can make, and since my original investments were made when prices were higher, I have the opportunity to bring down my average costs per share.

"Watch this space for BT sooner rather than later."

Much as Mandy won't believe it, I'd welcome a bid for BT. As I said previously I'd use such an event to sell all my BT stock, when I judge the price has peaked, I'd then sit on the cash and wait for the price to drop when the bid's blocked or rejected.

"Is it worth it? Thoughts please."

It suits me since my original investments were significant, and higher than the current prices. Every time I reinvest dividends I bring down my average cost per share and increase my dividends going forward. Even if dividends were dropped, which seems unlikely in Lloyds and BT's case (although not too sure about Vodafone), dividends reinvested at the current low valuations reduces my average cost per share, so is probably worthwhile for me. I've even built a spreadsheet table for calculating monetary and percentage drops in the average cost per share, for all three of my stocks, based on the number of shares held, the current stock prices and the amount invested; So I can tell in seconds which stock gives me the biggest drop in average cost per share for whatever amount I enter into a box.

I won't show you the full table, but if I was to invest £20,000 into my stocks, this is the reductions I'd see in average cost per share:

Reduction in average cost per share £0.11 £0.15 £0.00

% Reduction in average cost per share 5.85% 10.22% 0.52%

I wont tell you which stocks the above refer to specifically, but the first stock would see an average cost per share drop of 11p, or 5.85%, and the third stock would see a reduction of less than a penny equating to a 0.52% average cost per share drop.

Dividend reinvestment isn't for everyone, but it works for me. Everyone has different investment goals and timescales so need to find their own investment strategy and stick to it, if it's working for them. On a previous thread I posted a link to a chart showing what happens when two different Fleccy's, in Parallel Universes, who buy 50,000 shares for £2 a share costing £100,000 each in total. In Fleccy 2 's universe the stock price half's after purchase. Obviously this wouldn't happen in real life, but the share prices don't fluctuate year after year in this example and both Fleccy's reinvest all their money back into the stock year after year:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRYwu6rv7Vk2093vnE9975iJIfiNBDGYW08VmYU2MK2tsi0o9bA3rDwV9NV0XA6QJrkQeqet_jppwWg/pubchart?oid=1399088825&format=interactive

Fleccy 2 initially see's his stock half in value compared to the price he paid and Fleccy 1 didn't suffer a 50% drop. Both Fleccy's then see their valuation increase each year as they reinvest dividends back into BT; By year 19 the value of Fleccy 2's stock just about catches up with Fleccy 1's valuation, then on year 20 Fleccy 2's valuation fly's past Fleccy 1's. This demonstrates the power of compounding dividend reinvestments when the price drops, which is the reason I like dividend reinvestment while I see value in my stocks.

Mandy the empty vessel between your ears, 🙉 → ▢, just echo's the same old nonsense nonsense nonsense, day in, day out.

"Your understanding of the street hub project is woeful. Not only are the numbers that BT install minuscule , they also cant sell the advertising on them, they are a non profit making loss leader that crime gangs love."

You're still missing the point I was making, the point being that EE have an easier ride rolling out 5G than others. As far as the street hubs are concerned, whether or not they're profit making is irrelevant. It isn't as though they'll be putting them on residential estates, they'll be aimed at town/city centers and possibly along some major bus routes. I can't comment on Street Hub advertising revenue, since I have no access to BT's individual accounts. I don't doubt you worked on the original InLinks project, but it doesn't change the fact that BT are still rolling these out.

As far as "enlightening of simple minds (mandy), on the wonder of dividend reinvestment", I know a bit about Telecoms too. I worked for over 20 years as a Network Field Engineer, followed by 10 years in Submarine Cable Operations. I've worked on transmission systems using FDM,PDH, SDH, DWDM, as well as terrestrial line of sight microwave radio ranging from 2mb/s up to 155mb/s; I've used various ELMI analysers for investigating CAS in the early days, and CCS signalling issues on DASS and Q931 as they came into use. I've also worked on various Datacom's technologies, over the years, like X21/Nx64 transmission in the early days, and later in my Field Engineering career working on maintaining and fault finding various customer site Cisco equipment's/Network's. My final 10 years before retirement was in submarine cable operations, maintaining PFE's and cable station terminal equipment's and working with ships for subsea repairs, as a Cable Station Engineer and part of a NOC team managing subsea cables around the world.

So Phatkat I may not know the fine detail associated with the InLink project, but I also know a bit more than "the wonder of dividend reinvestment".

Phatkat, the point I was making near the start of this thread is that BT has an easier ride than others rolling out 5G, due to the amount of street furniture they have access to. In the high street they can use higher 5G frequencies as well as unlicenced WiFi frequencies to provide coverage. Where Street Hubs don't gain approval they'll likely just use microcells instead anyway. As far as people using them for crime and other things, I can only take your word for that and if people vandalise them, well they'll hopefully get caught and banged up. I doubt the criminals you're talking about are that tech savvy as to completely mask their device ID's.

Should theses street hubs be subjected to persistent and widespread vandalism, then they probably will get discontinued, but BT still appear to be rolling them out as things currently stand.

I wasn't suggesting there's a widespread agenda against BT, just that some members of some councils may have vested interests conflicting with the street hubs. The main objections seemed to be aimed at their use as advertising screens, which may affect businesses renting out billboard time and space in the local vicinity.

"The Street Hub- In link project is dead in the water."

Phatkatzout, you're confusing InLinkUK with BT's street hubs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LinkUK

BT are still rolling out hubs nationwide:

"BT to offer free ultra-fast WiFi and rapid device charging as hi-tech street units come to Newcastle"

https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-to-offer-free-ultra-fast-wifi-and-rapid-device-charging-as-hi-tech-street-units-come-to-newcastle/

Also:

https://newsroom.bt.com/ee-adds-over-400-new-small-cells-to-increase-4g-capacity-and-reduce-congestion-in-the-busiest-areas/

BT have it a bit easier than Vodafone, due to the geographic density of their network; For example, there's nothing stopping BT from replacing telephone boxes with a small 5G cells in combination with other FWA, possibly using WiFi frequencies. I've read some articles where BT have tried to replace some Telephone boxes with such points and planning's been refused, so it isn't without some difficulty. The street hubs can also be used for advertising, so more revenue opportunities for BT.

https://business.bt.com/public-sector/street-hubs/

These articles highlight some of the issues BT have had with some councils:

https://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/20230551.central-reading-phone-boxes-replaced-smart-hubs/#:~:text=A%20total%20of%20seven%20phone,and%20a%20tablet%20for%20communication.

Edinburgh and Lincoln Councils have rejected their deployment

https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/edinburgh-council-refuses-plans-to-replace-old-phone-boxes-with-new-digital-bt-street-hubs-3779372

https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/12/no-signal-plan-to-replace-lincoln-phone-boxes-with-5g-booster-crashes/

From what I can tell, most of the objections seem to be around using the hubs for advertising, and describing them as "harmful to the character and appearance", which makes me wonder if some council objections might be due to vested interests. These smart hubs obviously present competition to the big billboard advertisers, seen along bus routes and elsewhere, so are the objections completely innocent? You'd think these hubs would be an asset, taking into consideration they're replacing old street furniture and providing free services to shoppers and visitors to these areas. As far as rural and suburban coverage, masts have been springing up like weeds near me, so I don't see much evidence of planning and build issues.

"Miker - good for you f*ck Fleecy....24 hour troll"

That's unfair, I'm only an occasional Troll 😉

Jambone, you used the wrong emoji, this is probably closer to the truth😭

The examiner's excluded it from patentability:

https://www.ipo.gov.uk/p-ipsum/Document/ApplicationNumber/GB2113962.1/16b26341-fe3a-444f-9221-3f1901aa4961/GB2611321-20230921-Exam%20report%20%20Standard.pdf

"Then a blockbuster rns stating that Newmont had pulled out of a 'no brainer' first refusal to JV, this sent the share down 77% at 8 am following the rns. I stayed put and watched my 11m shares hit 38p a couple of years later and stay there for approx 2 - 3 mths."

You didn't sell though did you, you thought it would get to £1? I don't doubt you had/have an investment in GGP and have profited, I just don't believe you made a capital gain of £4 Million. A capital gain is the only thing that matters, anything else is like winning the lottery in a dream and then waking up.

Also, why did you say to someone in RBD that "I invested heavily in GGP and am down massively but only on paper. I have decided to stay invested believing there will be an upturn", when the price was around 0.6p at the time of the post? If you bought around 0.5p, wouldn't you have been in profit when you posted that?

"This week Miker last week Obelix. These guys are so deep in this share and as Addi said last week, will look for any crumb of comfort."

I had a quick look back through miker444's posting history and I think he said he'd purchased 11 million shares in GGP for 0.5p with a £55,000 investment and in another previous post I think he said he'd top sliced £200k previously.

There's a contradiction with the 0.5p price he used, as demonstrated in this post:

"miker444

Posted in: RBD

Posts: 4,364

Price: 0.625

No Opinion

bhargav.....30 Apr 2018 15:04

So you lost money and are now resorting to go on another bb to vent your bitterness. No one but no one forces anyone to invest, it should be your decision and yours alone. In fact it was your decision, end of. I invested heavily in GGP and am down massively but only on paper. I have decided to stay invested believing there will be an upturn. There may not, but it is my decision and if I lose I take it on the chin. Do not troll other investors for your own decisions."

At the time of that post, GGP was around 0.595p, suggesting Mike bought much higher than 0.5p.

Miker444 can you clarify when you bought your GGP shares and for how much, when sold out, and if you still hold any?

"Miker - I would give you financial advice but i got a feeling you don’t need it ;)"

You could teach him the difference between a capital and paper gain.

"I firmly believe that the halving / business cycle will lift all crypto related stocks , and given on the uk market there are only around 10 ways to play crypto via listed investments all things been equal a reasonable amount of money will hunt out those opportunities."

The next halving may well kill BTC in my opinion. Many of the early enthusiasts have been burned by Crypto, either through fraud or price volatility. BTC is useless as a currency due to volatility and high transaction charges, and project lightning is like a sticking plaster on a gaping wound. Transactions involving crypto being exchanged for goods, usually involve the crypto being converted to Fiat with the conversion cost and volatility risk landing on the purchaser, rather than the seller. If the price of BTC doesn't rise significantly, transaction charges will have to rise massively and it remains to be seen what the effect will be on the miners.

Also, in my opinion, the race to start US ETF's is about pulling retail cash in through the back door, since direct retail enthusiasm has fallen off a cliff. Some big players, with some big financial backers, have made big bets on BTC and I suspect the ETF's are a way of bailing out some big players and their backers.

Because all the original use cases have failed miserably, the only manufactured use case left is to describe BTC as some sort of digital commodity, using terms like Digital Gold or Digital Oil to describe it; Oil and Gold have real world uses, BTC doesn't, it's just a bit of computer code with no more use than some space in a database. Like the Emperors new clothes it's fake and supported entirely by hype and belief.

I agree the Pension deficit will likely show a reduction. It'll be interesting to find out the full impact of the LDI debacle, and how much it set things back.

From the BTPS written evidence to Parliament:

"Impact of the rise in gilt yields on our Scheme

The period of volatility we saw following the mini-budget was truly unprecedented.

Regulators have indicated that events were beyond their past stress tests and were outside of the

scenario planning the Scheme had previously conducted.

Whilst the level of real rates wasn’t an issue, the pace of change and the dysfunction in the gilt

market presented significant operational and liquidity challenges.

In common with other DB schemes, we faced significant collateral calls during this period.

However, we have a robust liquidity process and run a substantial gilts and cash buffer and have a

liquidity ladder we were able to tap into. The liquidity ladder defines the hierarchy of assets that we

use to meet liquidity demands, starting with the most liquid on the first rung. The terms of our credit

support annexes (CSAs) allow us to use cash or gilts to meet collateral calls so in the first instance we

used our existing cash and gilt holdings. When we had exhausted our gilt holdings, we sold equities

to generate cash. Constructing and using our liquidity ladder in this way meant that we were able to

meet all of our collateral requirements.

The Bank of England (BOE) intervened several times to ameliorate the market dysfunction –

including buying long-dated conventional gilts, introducing additional repo facilities, and buying

inflation-linked gilts. These interventions were welcome and effective."

"During this period, the Scheme’s assets fell significantly prior to the BOE intervention. At the same

time, the present value of the Scheme’s liabilities also fell by a similar amount. However, our hedges

continued to perform as expected and there was no worsening of our estimated funding position."

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/113599/pdf/

They're old figures, we wont know the current actuarial assessment figures until the Triennial review is completed.

Apparently there are ways to protect firmware from cloning, but I'd suggest no protection is foolproof.

http://picoinstruments.com/how-to-implement-firmware-anti-cloning-protection.php#:~:text=Preventing%20the%20firmware%20from%20being,intellectual%20properties%20of%20the%20firmware.

https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/651024/how-is-fpga-mcu-configuration-firmware-data-protected-from-readout#:~:text=Encrypt%20the%20firmware%20based%20on,the%20crypto%20key%20would%20change.

Not sure about the rig manufacturers view on bespoke firmware being used on their devices, if they get really upset they could possibly engineer new rigs to only accept the manufacturers BIOS/Firmware; I suppose much will depend on the manufacturers relationship with the third party Firmware provider.