RE: Notes19 Sep 2023 08:37
The author of those posts has painted a picture presenting a narrative that suits their own view of what might happen, but their view is extremely speculative and narrow. Sentences like, "I cannot see how BT can easily compete with CityFibre (that has the potential to take half their customers - and the best ones) and so they will have to slash jobs and costs", is what I'm talking about; The reason BT have more staff is because they have a far bigger network, providing far more services to varied customer types accessing communications via a range of different technologies. The main reason CityFibre are offering XGS-PON is more to do with supporting many more customers per OLT, rather than offering enhanced speeds.
CityFibre are looking at becoming a wholesale competitor to Openreach, so the author of the posts should have referenced to Openreach, and not BT as a group; BT is a customer of Openreach, just like Sky, Talk Talk, Plusnet and ZEN, and just like the Altnets are supported by venture capital, Openreach is supported by its parent BT.
BT are going to take on more financial debt while funding 5G and FTTP rollout, another £850 Million this year, but I wouldn't describe the debt as "monstrous" and lease liabilities are currently reducing by around £400 Million a year; Lease liabilities will reduce as exchanges close and the building footprint reduces. BT are also looking at reducing costs by £3 Billion per year by the end of 2025 and I've always said BT is about cost saving's rather than revenue growth, with costs set to reduce dramatically as legacy network disappears. The chap who posted those comments has his opinion and I have mine.
A recent report by the INCA suggests that Altnets are struggling, even suggesting that BT should be forced to sell off Openreach and duct/pole infrastructure, time will tell how all this unfold.
https://www.inca.coop/sites/default/files/policy/INCA-Policy-Report-Sept2023.pdf
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