Member Info for fleccy

Year Total Reward per Halving

2012 10,500,000

2016 5,250,000

2020 2,625,000

2024 1,312,500

2028 656,250

2032 328,125

2036 164,063

2040 82,031

2044 41,016

2048 20,508

2052 10,254

2056 5,127

2060 2,563

2064 1,282

2068 641

2072 320

2076 160

Total 20,999,840

If the Bitcoin price doesn't increase significantly, the next halving will destroy many of them. Over the 4 years starting 2024 and ending 2028 the total reward reduces to 656,250, meaning the miners will have to sell all their production to cover operational costs if the price doesn't rise. Because of the cost of BTC production, and limited reward,, the next halving might not follow previous BTC price trends.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQocmfU9NxDx3N5rEGr9Fr8qosbeWX0LlJp6eDh_V8gwT6HFbTEbYyKqyzWr-JMHdfTUdNtZhxmXEpz/pubchart?oid=1512710695&format=interactive

I have my posts per page set 100, and the prophecy posts take up nearly a third of the posts per page. It's almost at the point of spam, drowning out relevant posts discussing the actual company, and probably putting people off posting meaningful posts.

Probably posted these before, but reflects my thoughts on Crypto:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORdWE_ffirg

John Oliver's more recent thoughts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7zazuy_UfI

"Personally , I believe the halving next year is significant"

Pas the mega whale vested interests that have bet billion's on BTC, are looking for ways to suck in new money into the token, hence the push for spot ETF's; It's a way to suck retail cash in via the back door, so they can tap their mates running pension and investment funds to allocate a portion of their funds, in order to pump liquidity into a market that's drying up. They're also using the spot ETF narrative to pump up current retail enthusiasm, using headlines like "Bitcoin (BTC) Spot ETFs Could Bring $30B in New Demand", with the current BTC market value at just over $504 Billion; This would be like a Hail Mary, and bail out, for the big players who've gambled Billions on BTC reaching even dizzier heights than it already has.

Like the Emperors new clothes BTC was created out of thin air and sold as something special, eventually a child will laugh and shout look the emperor is wearing no clothes.

"Billy seems to know what he's talking about."

"Bitcoin Price Prediction: Why Bitcoin Could Rocket To $400,000 In 2021"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2021/04/08/bitcoin-price-prediction-why-bitcoin-could-rocket-to-400000-in-2021/

Really?

Billy Bambrough is a regular ramping contributor to Forbes, the content of his articles show he's a big fan of crypto. The vested interests are constantly on the lookout to find reasons to pump up the sector, eventually it'll deflate into insignificance.

I think that just about covers it:

"The Group’s potential exposure under this mechanism is capped at INR 64 billion (€719 million)"

"The carrying value of the Group’s investment in VIL is €nil and the Group is recording no further share of losses in respect of VIL"

Anything other than that would depend on whether Vodafone want to inject further capital into VI.

"4 Contingent liabilities and legal proceedings

Vodafone Idea

As part of the agreement to merge Vodafone India and Idea Cellular in 2017, the parties agreed a mechanism for payments between the Group and Vodafone Idea Limited (‘VIL’) pursuant to the difference between the crystallisation of certain identified contingent liabilitiesin relation to legal, regulatory, tax and other matters, and refundsrelating to Vodafone India and Idea Cellular. Cash payments or cash receipts relating to these matters must have been made or received by VIL before any amount becomes due from or owed to the Group. Any future payments by the Group to VIL as a result of this agreement would only be made after satisfaction of this and other contractual conditions.

The Group’s potential exposure under this mechanism is capped at INR 64 billion (€719 million) following payments made under this mechanism from Vodafone to VIL, in the year ended 31 March 2021, totalling INR 19 billion (€235 million).

On 7 February 2023, VIL issued equity to the Government of India equivalent to INR 161 (€1.8 billion), representing the net present value of interest accrued on both deferred spectrum auction instalments and AGR dues pursuant to a relief package announced in September 2021 which is designed to improve the liquidity and financial health of the telecom sector. Wider reforms announced as part of the relief package include a four-year moratorium on spectrum and AGR payments and the option to convert payments due on spectrum and AGR payments to equity at the end of the moratorium period which VIL elected to accept in October 2021.

VIL remains in need of additional liquidity support from its lenders and intends to raise additional funding. There are significant uncertainties in relation to VIL’s ability to make payments in relation to any remaining liabilities covered by the mechanism and no further cash payments are considered probable from the Group as at 31 March 2023. The carrying value of the Group’s investment in VIL is €nil and the Group is recording no further share of losses in respect of VIL. The Group’s potential exposure to liabilities within VIL is capped by the mechanism described above; consequently, contingent liabilities arising from litigation in India concerning operations of Vodafone India are not reported."

Guttersnipe, I've never made waffles in my life, here's someone waffle 'Ing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR64hfkGQeU&t=1s

"Fleccy is a waffleing I d I o t."

🤣Hilarious. The fact you don't know how to spell waffling, or use a spell checker, speaks volumes about your intelligence; So I'll take that as a compliment

"Rob, good post, there is far more to making money on shares than just being a good accountant. No dissrespect to fleccy, but he sometimes sounds like a horse race gambler,who is an expert on race horse form, but can't understand why he is losing money. "

I don't bet on horses and a horse race ends when the leading horse crosses the finish line, betting on stocks is like an infinite race where the finish line moves and is determined by a number of variables. I don't lose money until I sell my shares, a paper loss isn't a capital loss.

As far as understanding Vodafone's accounts, it's about understanding the company and having an overview of where the debt comes from and how Vodafone balances its books and maintains the dividend.

Take a look at this chart:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=325944045&format=interactive

It shows how the debt increased during FY19/20 coinciding with a large acquisition, so you can look back at the results for that year and see what happened; Then there's the disposal in FY22/23 that reduced Net Debt. What's also obvious is that the EBITDAal has been pretty flat over the years, as has Capex. By looking at various factors it gives an insight into understanding the company you're invested in.

"After the UK's money supply stops growing for first time in 13 years."

Bit of a stupid article, since that's exactly what raising interest rates is meant to do; Money supply and interest rates have an inverse relationship.

Scores on the doors:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS0oSavIsBjHgD7k6NMyk7Z591Cm2IrevvLI-Jq95gOmESrOI0Vi_NhA8LIO9rMz90Y5zCOCoFuEItG/pubchart?oid=1812824850&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS0oSavIsBjHgD7k6NMyk7Z591Cm2IrevvLI-Jq95gOmESrOI0Vi_NhA8LIO9rMz90Y5zCOCoFuEItG/pubchart?oid=1451011517&format=interactive

Volumes were lowish today until close, then 42,708,313 traded at £1.156 in UT at close:

Close UT Trade value £49,370,809

Total on Exchange trade value for today £53,747,030

Rest of the day trade value £4,376,220

"Savers will be pushed to invest in shakeup of Isa regime"

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/savers-will-be-pushed-to-invest-in-shakeup-of-isa-regime/ar-AA1g2GWR?cvid=2fb2ced6686c4707bd17be75db739c21&ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&ei=10

Mole_man, clearly Vodafone wont grow revenue much from here, they need to focus on debt and capex reduction in my opinion.

Capex is clearly the largest deduction from EBITDA and the largest reducer to Free Cash Flow, followed by Spectrum and Licences in FY23, but that may reduce in years to come. On a yearly basis Interest received and paid is another significant reducer, around €1.1 Billion per year currently ; Dividends are separated from Free Cash Flow and accounted for as a deduction in the Net Debt calculation.

The Vodafone UK/Three merger, should it be approved, will initially impact the Revenue and Net Debt figures, and if I'm reading it correctly Vodafone will eventually take full ownership by allocating new Vodafone shares to Three's owners.

Vodafone is quite a complicated beast, maybe a thread should be dedicated to the Financials so they can be discussed properly? There may be a few accountants who read these threads, I'd be interested to read an opinion from someone who actually knows what they're talking about, I'm not an accountant so I don't include myself in that.

That might be the roadmap, but the map lacks detail. Developing a product in the lab doesn't necessarily transpose into something that's commercially viable. Lab testing on a few mining rigs, using test data as opposed to live data, doesn't mean the product will work with big miners processing data at Exahash per second rates.

"tomorrows figures should be updated later today"

Lol, I mean yesterdays figures will be updated later today, I haven't got a working Crystal Ball.

This is where things stand up to Tuesday, tomorrows figures should be updated later today:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=457705223&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=1824278197&format=interactive