Member Info for fleccy

Apparently there are ways to protect firmware from cloning, but I'd suggest no protection is foolproof.

http://picoinstruments.com/how-to-implement-firmware-anti-cloning-protection.php#:~:text=Preventing%20the%20firmware%20from%20being,intellectual%20properties%20of%20the%20firmware.

https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/651024/how-is-fpga-mcu-configuration-firmware-data-protected-from-readout#:~:text=Encrypt%20the%20firmware%20based%20on,the%20crypto%20key%20would%20change.

Not sure about the rig manufacturers view on bespoke firmware being used on their devices, if they get really upset they could possibly engineer new rigs to only accept the manufacturers BIOS/Firmware; I suppose much will depend on the manufacturers relationship with the third party Firmware provider.

FG looked a bit unhappy, and the exchange seemed very scripted. FG did a lot of looking to the left, which may indicate he was remembering his answers as the "interview" progressed. If the firmware isn't supported by the manufacturer, then it'll likely invalidate the warranty on the mining rigs, and as far as stopping others from copying the firmware or deriving the code from the instruction sequences, I'm not sure that's possible.

"Howard Watson (pictured, second from the left) played down the potential impact of the proposed Vodafone-3 UK merger on its market position, instead highlighting this could increase investment and promote competition.

In a panel session with Vodafone UK’s chief network officer Andrea Dona (pictured, second from right) and CEO at Nokia UK and Ireland Phil Siveter (pictured, right), Watson claimed the Vodafone-3 merger does not threaten its “market leadership”, pointing to his own observation that slimming down market players can have its own benefits.

“In some countries, moving from four players to three players has made capital investment more efficient. More scale, more economically beneficial,” he noted.

However, Watson warned the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is set to have a deeper look into the merger, with the transaction expected to reach a conclusion by end-2024.

“I do think the CMA has some big questions to look at here, and we will be asked for comments I’m sure”, he said, highlighting potential scrutiny related to spectrum.

This will not be a pain point for BT, he claimed, as the operator has a network-sharing JV with 3 UK in place."

https://www.mobileworldlive.com/featured-content/top-three/bt-plays-it-cool-on-impact-of-vodafone-3-uk-deal/

Why have they only recently looked at Chinese manufactured Mining rigs, and why are they even bothering to release this information?

I think QBT perceive this release as positive, but the market is seeing it as a lack of foresight and understanding of the industry. QBT should have already known what the most popular mining rigs are, and where they're used; The PRN implies that QBT have only just realised they need a product to use on these Asian mining rigs, whereas previous releases implied that their firmware would work on any mining rig. This release has clearly backfired.

"Mehta’s digital unit within BT was originally tasked with creating £500 million in annual cost savings by shifting to the public cloud and deploying AI tools in various functions, plus other internal digital-change gambits; the business said in May it will slash 55,000 jobs – about 40 percent of its workforce – by 2030, with around 10,000 likely be replaced by AI, notably in customer and network management. In Copenhagen, Mehta said the £500 million target was in-hand, and will be extended to £1 billion at least in new savings and gains.

“A billion is what we’re seeing and, in the next few months, our job is to unlock it,” she said."

https://www.rcrwireless.com/20230920/telco-cloud/careful-or-care-free-bt-and-vodafone-split-the-difference-over-generative-ai

"Saudi Telecom buying 10% of Telefonica in 2023 is of much greater relevance than anything that happened 5 years ago"

The point of the chart was to demonstrate the decline of Telecom stocks in general, Orange's share price has also seen declines. The only Telecom stock that's outperformed the rest is Deutsch Telekom, because of their US T-Mobile investment, which the market appears to like.

Saudi Telecom purchasing a stake in Telefonica is what it is, like Drahi buying over 24% of BT, or E& looking at increasing its stake in Vodafone to 20%; All these purchases prove is that Telecom stocks are cheap, and possibly some strategic partnership reasoning behind Middle East interest. The Spanish Government might not be as nationalistic as the French, but they're not far off and they'll heavily scrutinise any further significant purchases of Telefonica stock.

"and sometimes inaccurate references (e.g. telefonica)"

Everything I said about Telefonica was spot on, I even used the 5 year chart to make my point. I said that they own half of the Joint Venture VMO2 and that they were among the loudest voices complaining to the EU about BT being awarded the TESTA contract, prompting the EU to then kick BT off it. Mandy, tell me, what are the inaccurate references you're referring to?

Doesn't everyone defend their opinion? I base my opinion of BT on company statements, saying what they'll do as part of their transformational strategy, like the eventual closing of 4000 Exchanges, or the PSTN switch off and move to FTTP, with Billions in cost savings thrown in; If I didn't believe what BT are saying, then I wouldn't have invested in them. BT have an amazing set of assets in Openreach, Duct & Pole infrastructure, and EE, so why would I worry about my capital investment with the value I perceive as locked up in the assets?

As far as blind spots, i'm not sure where they'll be unless they're unknowns; As an example, it isn't mentioned much but the Pre trial review for the Patourel class action is on the 8th December, and the case will got to trial next year; I'm aware of it and I have no idea how it will turn out, but I'll watch with interest. Just because I defend my opinion, and take a different view to others, doesn't make it a blind spot, I suspect you're implying that I suffer from cognitive rigidity, but I regularly think through and weigh up my investments, especially when I'm reinvesting with a view to bringing down my averages. I'd be interested to know where you think my blind spots are?

Something else that seems to upset people, is my belief in dividend reinvestment when the price drops, but why wouldn't I reinvest dividends if I believe BT is undervalued and will do well at the end of the current capex cycle?

"Recent data is more useful than your choice of a 5 year spectrum, wouldn't you say?"

Only if you're a short term trader, for someone who wants to buy and hold the current price decline could be an opportunity.

"Fleccy

Their share price is up 11.5% in the last month...BT 3.34%....and over the last 6 months their SP is up 7.39% whilst BT is down 17.47% ..BT getting the hammering I think"

Taking a snapshot is meaningless, the situation could easily be reversed a year from now. On the 5 year chart, BT were outperforming Telefonica throughout 2022 and in April this year. Just because the market's punishing BT more now, doesn't mean that'll be the case next year.

"Posters on here are getting wise to your fun and games fleccy. Good job too."

No fun and games Mandy, just facts backed up with examples.

Just to add, there's nothing special about Telefonica, their share price is getting hammered along with the rest of the sector.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?sca_esv=566330112&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB882GB882&output=search&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiL4IeLuLWBAxW6R0EAHU7NB64Q0pQJegQICxAB&comparison=BME%3ATEF&window=5Y

Telefonica own half of the JV, VMO2, so would be rejected on Competition and National Security grounds lol.

Another example of what I'm talking about is the recent blocking of BT from managing the EU's TESTA network, on national security grounds, after complaints from Telefonica and others. The EU first awarded the contract to BT's EU subsidiary, and then took it away from them after complaints, there's no way the Government would allow a foreign takeover of BT, especially an EU based one.

I don't disagree that the current UK political class are a waste of space, but it changes nothing in respect of a BT takeover being waved through. One of the reasons they recently strengthened legislation, around protecting companies from takeover on national security grounds, was to give them a excuse to block takeovers of companies like BT. The odds of a BT takeover are extremely low, in my opinion.

Poker it makes no odds what's possible through coercion, or bribery, it's the perception of allowing foreign entities to take control of a company like BT. In reality, does anyone believe that politicians would allow a foreign takeover of the UK's main telecommunications provider? I don't see it myself, and any political party allowing such a thing would be crucified by the press.

"An "owner" is merely a majority shareholder ... I can take over BT but just hold 51% of the shares thereafter for voting rights"

Any entity taking 51% control of a company, would only do as part of a strategy to take full control; Once full control is established, and the company is privately owned, the owner can insert staff where they please and give them remote access to systems carrying network data. Workers with access to sensitive data and systems should have various levels of vetting, but if you own the keys to the kingdom you can let people in through the backdoor when no one's looking.

Poker, communications can't be compared to water or Electricity. Once the network is fully IP, sniffing off data will be as easy as typing some commands on a keyboard. Currently switch engineers can receive legal orders from Government Agencies, to capture telephone calls associated with individual numbers and directing the digital voice data to numbers where the authorities can record the calls; There are legalities around doing such things but a bad actor could easily circumvent that; It will be just as easy for data network providers to do the same with data associated with IP addresses, VLAN's, etc and direct the sniffed off data to storage devices anywhere. Because of the security sensitivities associated with Telecommunications networks, it's unlikely Governments would allow foreign entities to take over and manage a national incumbent. I don't see the German Government ever allowing a foreign takeover of Deutsche Telekom, or the French Government allowing a foreign takeover of Orange either.

I'm not against BT being taken over, but I don't see any foreign based entity being allowed to take control of the primary national communications infrastructure provider, and there are no UK based companies left with enough firepower to takeover BT. UK PLC has been whittled down to a shadow of its former self, many of the utility companies are owned by French and German companies, even the national Airline is now owned by a Spanish company. The reason I don't see any Government allowing a foreign takeover of BT is due to the security implications of allowing it to happen, foreign entities may hold shares in the company, but they don't control the network. Ringfencing teams and network only goes so far, ultimately whoever controls the network has access to the data; Look at the Government actions banning Huawei equipment off the networks, as an example of what I'm talking about. I do have issues with UK PLC being sold off piecemeal, until there's nothing left, but that has nothing to do with my opinion that no Government would allow a full foreign takeover of BT.

"BT must change and fast in order to survive"

Are you asleep Mandy, what do you think the current yearly capex and rollouts are about? BT are retiring their legacy network and moving to a fully converged IP/Cloud network, if that isn't change I don't know what is. The number of Exchanges will reduce from 5000 plus to around 1000, the access network will be mainly Fibre, and the mobile network will move to 4/5G only. You're obsessed with the CWU, but the pay awards are now covered until 2025 and the CWU have no power to prevent BT from shedding staff, whose role becomes redundant as legacy network disappears.

All any of us can do is speculate on the range of possible outcomes; I base my opinion on what happened with the cable companies in 90's, which gives the current Telecom environment a Deja Vu feel.

The author of those posts has painted a picture presenting a narrative that suits their own view of what might happen, but their view is extremely speculative and narrow. Sentences like, "I cannot see how BT can easily compete with CityFibre (that has the potential to take half their customers - and the best ones) and so they will have to slash jobs and costs", is what I'm talking about; The reason BT have more staff is because they have a far bigger network, providing far more services to varied customer types accessing communications via a range of different technologies. The main reason CityFibre are offering XGS-PON is more to do with supporting many more customers per OLT, rather than offering enhanced speeds.

CityFibre are looking at becoming a wholesale competitor to Openreach, so the author of the posts should have referenced to Openreach, and not BT as a group; BT is a customer of Openreach, just like Sky, Talk Talk, Plusnet and ZEN, and just like the Altnets are supported by venture capital, Openreach is supported by its parent BT.

BT are going to take on more financial debt while funding 5G and FTTP rollout, another £850 Million this year, but I wouldn't describe the debt as "monstrous" and lease liabilities are currently reducing by around £400 Million a year; Lease liabilities will reduce as exchanges close and the building footprint reduces. BT are also looking at reducing costs by £3 Billion per year by the end of 2025 and I've always said BT is about cost saving's rather than revenue growth, with costs set to reduce dramatically as legacy network disappears. The chap who posted those comments has his opinion and I have mine.

A recent report by the INCA suggests that Altnets are struggling, even suggesting that BT should be forced to sell off Openreach and duct/pole infrastructure, time will tell how all this unfold.

https://www.inca.coop/sites/default/files/policy/INCA-Policy-Report-Sept2023.pdf

Just took a look at Lloyds for Friday, 410,881,995 shares were traded in total and out of those 372.82 million shares were traded On Exchange. Vodafone was a similar story on Friday, with 183,227,964 shares traded in total and 156.49 million of those On Exchange. Such high On Exchange trading volumes are unusual and may well be associated with retail investors reinvesting dividends.