Member Info for fleccy

It's undeniable that the FTSE100 is doing wonderfully over the last 5 years, for anyone betting against it!

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE?comparison=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI%2CINDEXDB%3ADAX%2CINDEXEURO%3APX1%2CINDEXSP%3A.INX&window=5Y

Halifax do apparently offer a Bed & ISA service. Whichever method you use, you have to sell your shares in the standard account and rebuy in the ISA, so stamp duty applies.

Our Lloyds shares were down £34,000 on the 13th Feb, we're now up over £22,000. Long may this continue.

What is BTC?

A manufactured (fake) commodity whose value is based entirely on belief.

It has no real World use and is inefficient as a means of financial transacting.

The scarcity narrative is fake, since its evolution is determined by the developers; They can subdivide Bitcoin to infinitesimally smaller tokens, or override the 21 Million limit should they wish too.

As far as the 21 Million limit it wouldn't be reached for at least another 100 years, based on the 10 minute per block rule, but the Bitcoin reward reductions would destroy the mining industry well before then in the absence of an ever increasing Bitcoin price.

As the Bitcoin price gets higher, the more resistance it'll encounter, due to profit taking, with small downward moves having the potential to cascade into a stampede for the exit.

Like religion, Bitcoin's valuation is based purely on faith; Most cults eventually fade into insignificance.

Pas maybe the large number of ticks up, for comments raising doubting QBT's chances of success, are from bystanders who also doubt QBT's ability to commercialise their products.

Although QBT have advised that they're currently live testing, as far as I can tell all the previous clamed probability improvements have been based on test data in a lab environment. Because of the massive hashing power of the Bitcoin network and the ever increasing difficulty level, QBT's product will have to run on extremely fast servers in the case of SaaS and be close to the customer to reduce network latency to a minimum. Bitcoin mining is all about speed, which is why the farms have spent Billions buying up rigs to increase their brute force hashing power; QBT aren't the first looking for ways to speed up the process, people are right to be sceptical.

Anyone else find Windmills of your mind slightly depressing? Here's the cure:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7e7YnsB9Jc

This thread appears to be going around in circles, it reminds of the song Windmills of your mind

"Round like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel

Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel

Like a snowball down a mountain, or a carnival balloon

Like a carousel that's turning running rings around the moon

Like a clock whose hands are sweeping past the minutes of its face

And the world is like an apple whirling silently in space

Like the circles that you find in the windmills of your mind!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEhS9Y9HYjU

Easier to just agree on what share buybacks do achieve as long as they aren't paid for using debt, which is to increase Earnings per share and reduce the dividend bill where dividends are paid, anything else is down to market sentiment.

Is this what you're talking about BrewHaHa?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5489252.0

Daniel you're correct, if the price stays around 70p after the share buybacks then the market cap will fall dependent on the number of shares cancelled. I'm not completely against buybacks, in Vodafone's case I actually agree with the strategy as long as they also embark on a significant debt reduction strategy. The only reason I mention debt is because it's a recurring theme used to beat up both Vodafone and BT, if they operate a policy to pay down debt as it matures over the next 8 years they could knock €30 Billion off the Gross Debt figure.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=1681133451&format=interactive

"Bought a few more today at these giveaway discount prices"

It's only a "giveaway discount price" if QBT manage to commercialise their products, I would think the next twelve months will be make or break. I'm not a betting man but the odds of QBT's success are low in my opinion, what they're trying to achieve is something that's eluded the rest of the industry since Bitcoin became a thing, and when you look at the potential rewards you'd think the miners would have already found an alternative to pure brute force if it was possible.

Anyone else noticed a flood of old stories being released by PYMNTS.com, for Openreach and BT searches, on Google news? Apparently they're a subsidiary of "What’s Next Media & Analytics" whose HQ is in Chicago, Illinois.

At least it is currently. Lloyds has left the Asteroid Belt and is on a positive trajectory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHfvqloLfHY

Anyone else think Charlie Nunn is the Emperor?

https://images.app.goo.gl/YMWSGnTdUkfqu98y8

The probable reason BT don't issue more guidance, is because anything they say is jumped upon by Ofcom or other CP's. Look at the regular slighting aimed at BT by the Altnets, with nothing said, and look at the what happened with Jansen when he made his "end in tears" comment. As a regulated entity BT have to keep their cards close to their chest, since any comment they make is used as a stick to beat them with.

As far as BT's plan with reference to cost savings, FTTP/5G rollouts, building closures, etc, I think they've been as clear and upfront as they can be.

Share Buybacks increase the Earnings Per Share and where dividends are paid it reduces the dividend bill. Theoretically the market analysts should look favourably on a higher EPS, which should feed through to an increase in the share price, but market valuations are currently driven by narrative and momentum, not fundamentals. As an example Lloyds was 41.19p on the 13th Feb and is currently 53.96p, an increase of 31% in 2 months; Lloyds share price increase isn't being driven by share buybacks, it's being driven by a narrative change around the banking sector and momentum.

The analyst community have been bashing Telecom sector stocks for a long time, at some point the narrative should change and the prices should benefit from the same momentum phenomena that's benefited other stocks and sectors.

FTSE Blue chips shouldn't move 30% in a few months on the back of nothing, it highlights how the market players/gamers can move stock/sector prices just because they decide to.

"Shares of BT Group appear heavily undervalued and "ripe for a major re-rating", JPMorgan Cazenove said in a note on Thursday.

The bank, which rates the stock at 'overweight' with a 290p price target, said BT's equity story remains intensely debated."

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/BT.A/bt-group-shares-ripe-for-a-re-rating-says-jpmorgan-cyzvdetrjgndurx.html

We don't use a landline in our house, we use Mobiles and wont be bothering with Digital Voice either when we move from FTTC onto FTTP. There appears to still be a market for analogue lines, both politically and financially, so I expect it'll still be available for a number of years post PSTN switch off.

I must admit I was surprised by the announcement and I watch out for BT headlines a lot, but I suspect the various CP's saw this coming for the last year. BT have developed, and are currently trialing, a product called SOTAP for Analogue so I don't see this pushing back the date of the PSTN switch off, and may even add additional revenue from this product.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2023/11/openreach-prep-alternative-uk-analogue-style-phone-product.html

I would guess there'd be nothing stopping someone having a SOTAP and FTTP connection simultaneously during the transitional period, but they'd have to pay separately for the individual services. If I'm understanding things correctly I don't see this adding extra costs for BT/Openreach.

UBS are quick to downgrade BT and slow to upgrade them. If I'm remembering correctly UBS were a laggard during BT's rise to over 200p in 2021. Things are a bit uncertain at the moment with the class action, hence the current short position's in the stock, so some bearishness isn't surprising.

The new tax year starts next week and I currently view BT as my most likely top up at some point following April.

If you think that Buglet, then you haven't followed BT during previous UBS downgrade's. UBS go to great lengths to accompany their BT downgrades with speculative negative commentary, so it's most likely UBS who are responsible for today's drop. It's also unlikely that the CAT are even close to a decision on the class action.

Today's price drop is clearly due to the UBS downgrade, they have form in this respect.