Member Info for fleccy

"Bitcoin Whales Withdraw Massive BTC Reserve From Exchanges

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, recently took to X and revealed significant Bitcoin whale activity. He noted that a staggering 21,401 BTC has been pulled out of crypto exchanges during this week to cash out the BTC price rally profits."

"Coinglass data reveals that $145.34 million Bitcoin liquidations were recorded in the past 24 hours. Out of this, $125.81 million liquidations were long positions, which could have influenced the recent Bitcoin price crash. Whilst, short traders didn’t initiate significant liquidations and profited from the bearish trend."

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-news-whales-pull-out-over-21400-btc-from-exchanges-in-a-week/

"Let’s be honest , it’s either going to drag on into a minuscule fine or be quashed."

I agree that it's pointless to discuss the Class Action, since all any of us can do is guess the final outcome. In my opinion BT haven't done anything wrong, but it'll come down to the panel's opinion/judgement. Patourel's lawyer's are asking for around £1.3 Billion, which is nearly 2 years worth of dividend payout's, I wouldn't describe that as a miniscule fine if the panel side's with them on every point.

"Could any of the keep BT British crowd explain please."

I would suggest the opinion of any poster on here is irrelevant in respect of this subject, It's Government policies that decide who can and can't purchase BT. Thee biggest reason would be on National Security grounds, since Telecoms is quite rightly considered to be critical infrastructure. Expat, you should write to your MP if you have any issue with Government policy.

Huawei is a good example of the Governments approach to Telecommunications, and the reason they wouldn't allow a foreign takeover of the UK's largest Telecommunications Provider.

"And always behind the curtain, the fear that a competitor will try and steal a march with 6G, and force you to borrow billions to install all the upgraded infrastructure to compete with their 6G, or 7, or even 8."

That statement suggests you don't know what 6G is about. 6G is more an evolution of 5G and not a complete refresh, many 6G applications will use 5G frequencies and infrastructure with newer higher frequency/bandwidth infrastructure limited to the high st, shopping centre's, stadiums, railway stations, etc and more akin to WiFi. The days of complete network refreshes and big capex cycles are coming to an end with FTTP and 5G, because the technology is reaching the limits of what's possible within our current understanding of Physics. There'll be slow evolutions to better tech and network equipment's, maybe some changes in standards with things like 6G, but huge Telecoms capex cycles will soon be a thing of the past.

Can anyone play this game?

Ok Vodafone's issued share capital consists of 28,818,683,808 ordinary shares of which 1,739,701,451 ordinary shares are held in Treasury. The current share price is around 70p, which is around 82 Eurocent and lets say Vodafone uses all €4 Billion to buy stock and the price stays around 82 Eurocent for the entirety of the buybacks.

€4 Billion-0.5% =€3.98 Billion (stamp duty)

€3.98 Billion/0.82= 4,853,658,536 shares purchased

Lets say they decide to cancel the shares in treasury as well as the newly purchased stock, you get:

28,818,683,808-(4,853,658,536+1,739,701,451)=22,225,323,820 issued shares

The number of issued shares doesn't determine the price the market decides that, but the cancellation of 22.88% of the shares means you've increased your EPS by just short of 30% if the income remains constant.

If you were to transpose the increase in EPS onto the share price, 70p+30%= 91p. Of course it doesn't work like that in real life, just playing the game.

Just to add, I also ignored stamp duty.

poker it was just a back of a *** packet calculation, based on the dividend rebasing to 4.5 eurocent and buying back €4 billion worth of shares at around 70p (82 eurocent); it also assumes that vodafone wont increase the dividend. of course there are variables that i ignored, like the share price increasing and reducing the number of shares purchased.

€4 billion/0.82= 4.878 billion shares purchased/cancelled

4.88 billion x 0.045 eurocent = €219.512 million

Buybacks should increase Earnings Per Share and reduce the overall dividend bill; If the share price stayed around current levels over the buyback periods, which I doubt, then Vodafone could probably buy back around 4.9 Billion shares, saving a further €220 Million per year in dividend pay outs upon completion.

Going off the data €5.504555 Billion is already past Next Call/Maturity date, but still showing on the Vodafone Bond debt page. I suspect the debt up to the 30th Jan has already gone but wont disappear off the page until Final Results in May.

"Debt levels are very manageable at relatively low rates, and the option to reduce the debt levels as they have been doing already is there to do if a benefit."

They've got a fair amount of Bond debt maturing, or Hybrid Bonds with Next Call dates, due over the next couple of years.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=17624073&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRA1ndHTf_Bz7O_moDxmcbWnEtcusZucUu6lEJvm3O4mGooeH4ErFjRqot3RQHBaVXCgoUED1k2CUVK/pubchart?oid=1681133451&format=interactive

If they pay down the debt as it matures, without refinancing, they could reduce their Bond debt significantly over the next two years.

I'm not in the game of making price predictions, but I'll be gobsmacked if the price doesn't go up on the back of this RNS.

I thought they said the Capital Allocation review would take place in May? It makes sense what they're doing.

"Also sounds like FG next news is methods to to see live that method B is working faster, now he looked very confident there imho, looked like he was holding back excitement."

🤣🤣🤣 Seriously, holding back excitement? He looks as though he's just been to a funeral.

"Just for you Fleccy, Hope this helps!!"

I've had a quick read through the Investopedia article and the reality is that you can't buy things with Bitcoin, since the transaction is completed in Fiat at the point of sale:

"The easiest way to buy anything with Bitcoin is with a crypto debit card. Such cards are preloaded with the cryptocurrency of your choice. While you spend crypto, the retailer receives fiat money as payment"

What they're doing is issuing debit card's with the crypto transaction's going through the exchange, and then the exchange using Visa or Mastercard to pay the vendor in Fiat currency; The transaction isn't in Crypto/Bitcoin, it uses a frig to convert to Fiat at the point of sale. It's like everything Bitcoin related, they just create frigs to get around lack of mainstream adoption and then pass it off as transacting in Bitcoin.

"Fleccy. Craig White. What happened today. Founder of BTC. Think not. Try harder."

Try harder at what Garwool?

NO LEO SERVICE WILL EVER REPLACE TERRESTRIAL MOBILE OR FIXED LINE FIBRE SERVICES.

I put that in capitals because people keep mentioning Starlink as if it'll replace terrestrial 5G, or fixed line fibre broadband, which'll never happen. Radio Frequency communication is limited by factors like gain of the system, distance, frequency, modulation technique, etc. The problem with satellite to Earth communication is the amount of gain required for the massive distances involved and the frequency/bandwidth limitations due to atmospherics. Starlink wouldn't be able to put enough satellites up there to cope with a fraction of the mobiles used daily in urban areas, at best a LEO might be able to service a limited number of calls in remote rural areas, and even then they'd probably struggle with handover's between satellites.

So anyone who believes that Starlink will replace terrestrial mobile/broadband services don't understand why it isn't possible. Communication providers could use LEO's to backhaul 5G from cell sites using higher gain terminal equipment's, but direct to mobile satellite services will only ever achieve a limited service for remote areas.

Bitcoin isn't Art, there's little to distinguish one Bitcoin from another and there are currently over 19 Million of them. Art's value is based on the uniqueness of the art and the fame of the artist, if there were 19 Million Mona Lisa's the painting's would be worth very little. In my opinion, anyone making money out of Bitcoin are profiting from the foolishness of others who've followed them into the token, and subsequently bought their Bitcoin from them. There is a wisdom for people making money out of Bitcoin, but the winners are the one's who see Bitcoin for what it is, a gambling chip in a crypto casino. Everything I invest in actually provides a service, I wont invest in tobacco and gambling companies, or anything else I have ethical concern over; And because I view crypto as Ponzi scheme I would never invest there either.

Lets say 2040 comes along and all 21 Million Tokens have been mined, what then? Do people just hold onto their Bitcoin and take them to their grave's? Michael Saylor describes Bitcoin as Digital Gold, but Gold's value is based on the properties of the element and its myriad of uses, whereas Bitcoin has no unique properties to distinguish it from something like Dogecoin, or any other proof of work altcoin. The 21 million bitcoin limit is artificial and could be overridden by the developers, with lines of code, but you can't easily create an alternative to gold, alchemists have tried.

In summary, all the narratives used to pump bitcoin valuations are fake and can be easily argued against; Bitcoin has one use, to facilitate easy transfers over the internet, but you could do that with any token or via traditional finance transfers. The biggest risk for bitcoin is CBDC's, since why would you need De-Fi tokens when you can use far less volatile CBDC's?

Since you mention me PAS, I will comment. Cathy Wood is talking her own book, she has to pump it as ARK run their own spot ETF and probably own Bitcoin too. The reason they pump Bitcoin is because its value is based purely on belief within the investing community, with nothing tangible backing the token. The narrative that Fiat isn't backed by anything is false, since Fiat has Central Bank guarantees and the markets value Fiat currency against the strength of the issuers economy. People like Michael Saylor might say they'll hold forever, but a stampede for the exit by speculators would test the resolve of the most dedicated Bitcoin believer. Much of the current speculative money will want to take profit at some point and probably wont return once that happens. Sensible people see Bitcoin for what it is, an easily replicated token who's value is based purely on hype and belief. I expect the price will collapse at some point, in the same way it did in 2021/22, it's inevitable. The vested interests will keep pushing ever higher speculative valuations, since it feeds more hot air into the Bitcoin balloon until the balloon eventually pops.

I can't help but be sceptical about QBT's ability to release a viable commercial product, it's one thing using test data in a lab environment and another making something work in the real world. The reason I'm sceptical is due to the speed that high performance Bitcoin ASICS process data, and the combined hash power in commercial Bitcoin mining farms and pools. QBT would likely have to process data as fast as the farm/pool can accept it and distribute the data with as little latency as possible, which also makes me question the viability of SaaS. I'm no expert, but QBT would have to process, produce and distribute their data at speeds fast enough to beat pure brute force, so they'd need to design an extremely fast system and keep latency to an absolute minimum.

The current Bitcoin Network Hashrate is 633.3915 EH/s, so for every second delay QBT takes to process and distribute the data, the Bitcoin network will have processed 633,391,500,000,000,000,000 Hashes; And once the mining rigs receive the QBT data they still have to brute force that data.

A lot of negativity in this thread. Reading between the lines I'm sensing Telecoms are being lined up for a consolidation phase, there's a lot of commentary aimed at Governments and regulators to encourage more mergers and acquisitions within the sector. I'm giving a lot of thought about my holdings, going into next year, but as far as my Telecom holdings are concerned I'm looking at adding and bringing my averages down; Rather than worrying about current price drops, they may help me if they stay at these low levels in this calendar year.

Curtin the Bond with the maturity date of 2079 is actually a Hybrid Bond with a next call date of 04/01/2029, Vodafone will more than likely pay off that particular Bond in 2029.