Member Info for fleccy

25.95 million ☹️

The Morgan Stanley RNS, reported on the 25th April, showed in the Off Book volumes on the 22nd April. On the day 194 Million Off Book volume went through, with a further 25.95 shares traded On Exchange.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BT.A/holdings-in-company-oxsnr5qe18ti6g8.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS4gJMsDAQq9sJ_zHqi_JnoVTryAdb4X64c7Clw12E2sGT3N6dTJfB60O8bc5Ns4burXvSSCVFrLvWC/pubchart?oid=457705223&format=interactive

Lloyds would be over 70p now if its share price performed in line with Barclays and Natwest, clearly it hasn't, I have to say the difference in market sentiment makes little sense to me. The market appears to be ignoring buyback's, so I can only guess that it's possibly the dividend debasement that upset sentiment and resulted in Lloyds stock underperforming since. Under AHO Lloyds did buyback's, but only enough to counteract the effect of block listings and the Lloyds dividend still hasn't recovered to the pre-covid level under Nunn.

In my opinion BT's path to growing the bottom line is clearer and more visible than Vodafone's, but Vodafone is a more complicated beast.

Jansen/BT have well telegraphed their strategy going back as far as 2019/20, it isn't his fault if the market chose to ignore the updates.

From 2019 results

"“Our aim is to deliver the best converged network and be the leader in fixed ultrafast and mobile 5G networks. We are increasingly confident in the environment for investment in the UK. We have already announced the first 16 UK cities for 5G investment. Today we are announcing an increased target to pass 4m premises with ultrafast FTTP technology by 2020/21, up from 3m, and an ambition to pass 15 million premises by the mid-2020s, up from 10 million, if the conditions are right, especially the regulatory and policy enablers."

https://www.bt.com/about/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/results-events-and-financial-calendar/2018-19#tab-18-19-accordion-1

Jansen had only been in the job for a couple of months at that point, obviously they've speeded things up since than entailing spending more on Capex. I'm not happy when my dividends are reduced, but I can see where the cash is going. I didn't work for BT, so I can only go off what I've seen and heard over the last 5 years, but I've agreed with Jansen's plan to rollout Fibre and 5G as fast as possible.

They're developing and testing new tech at Adastral Park, they're rolling out FTTP and 5G faster than anyone else, and finding cost savings as the transformation progresses. I'd be interested to know what more BT can do?

I think Jansen had/has the right strategy, it isn't his fault if the market can't see, or chooses to ignore, the plan.

Gary59 I'm invested in Vodafone and BT. In my opinion BT's strategy has a much smoother glide path than Vodafone's.

BT's pension deficit reduction program is on track with annual top-ups of £780 Million, from 2025 to 2031 and then reducing to £180 Million.

https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-group-announces-triennial-pension-valuation/#:~:text=The%20funding%20deficit%20at%2030,490m%20before%2030%20April%202030.

As far as lease liabilities, they'll reduce massively as the building closure program progresses after 2030. The £5 Billion a year FTTP and 5G rollout capex will also reduce after 2026 and BT are also in the midst of a cost saving plan to save £3 Billion annually by the end of 2025.

https://news.sky.com/story/bt-to-upgrade-cost-savings-target-to-3bn-as-inflationary-pressures-bite-12736609#

The weirdest OFCOM action I've seen, that makes me wonder about their attitude toward BT, is what happened with Jansen in respect of the end in tears comment.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2023/openreach-independence-well-established#:~:text=The%20comments%20of%20BT's%20Chief,Ofcom%20and%20industry%20significant%20concern.

The Jansen comment was reported in Feb 2023

https://www.benton.org/headlines/bt-chief-warns-openreach-fibre-push-will-%E2%80%98end-tears%E2%80%99-rivals

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/255528/letter-philip-jansen-to-melanie-dawes-060223.pdf

By the end of March, Jansen was on his way out of the door.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2023/03/bt-group-uk-reportedly-hunting-for-new-ceo-to-replace-jansen.html

It appears that Altnets can do as much goading as they want, but any kickback from BT and OFCOM are all over them. It wouldn't surprise me if Jansen went due to the "end in tears" comment, and the subsequent OFCOM delaying action on Equinox pricing following the comment.

OFCOM don't appear to be friendly toward BT and seem to treat them as if they're a Government department rather than a publicly traded company with shareholders.

Saw that earlier, UBS are working really hard to dent sentiment in BT.

The column values should automatically update as the price changes and the Total column will always show as the current date.

Changed to Black 😉

I made it red to stand out as the total, it has no significance and isn't meant to indicate a loss for AKO. Just for you I'll change it to a different colour. 😒

To add to my previous post in this thread; I've been a bit bored this afternoon so I decided to to build a chart to roughly measure AKO's paper profit on their shorts, not including interest, but the Total column takes the dividend into account. The chart should update every minute as BT's price changes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsw9LqqM3qfp1pbyg2fC4UnADyTjldJjpbBz0ejR1F7KI6w6k1OhPW65Iz80lXOgTJh19gwwG7o85U/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

Something else to bear in mind, with reference to dividends and short positions, the entity holding the short position is liable for the dividend.

If the dividend is held and the price doesn't decline sufficiently in the meantime; Ako capital as an example, holding a 0.91% short position on ex dividend day, will be on the hook to payout nearly £5 Million pounds in dividends to whoever they borrowed stock from.

Here's a chart summarising Ako's short positions, I used the day closing price to estimate the number of shares purchased and how much they've so far paid out in divi's:

Fund . . Date Changed . Close . Change. . . . . Quantity. . . . Short Price

Ako . . . 7 Mar 2024 . . . . 107.5 . . 0.09% . . . . . . 8,956,646 . . £9,628,394

Ako . . . 23 Feb 2024 . . . 106.9 . . 0.12% . . . . . 11,942,194. . .£12,766,206

Ako . . . 6 Feb 2024 . . . . 107.05 . 0.09% . . . . . . 8,956,646 . . £9,588,089

Ako . . . 23 Jan 2024 . . . 115.6 . . 0.11% . . . . . 10,947,012 . . £12,654,745

Ako . . . 11 Dec 2023 . . . 131.35 . 0.50% . . . . . 49,759,143 . . £65,358,635

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.91% . . . . . 90,561,641 . . £109,996,07

They would also have had to cover the Ex Dividend payout for their 0.5% short position on the 28th Dec 2023, coming in around £1.15 Million. Ako appear to be well in profit from their first short position taken out on the 11th Dec 2023.

I'm only guessing with the above since I've never shorted a stock, I'll happily be corrected if I've misunderstood something.

Lloyds stock price had performed inline with Barclays over the last 5 years, the price would now be around 77p, and if it matched Natwest the price would now be over 69p.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?comparison=LON%3ABARC%2CLON%3ANWG&window=5Y

I can't see any valid reasons for Lloyds underperforming Barclays and Natwest.

They're putting every spare penny into capex for FTTP and 5G rollout, it'll be a while before the dividend will increase.

It's still around a 5.5% Yield at the current price and there's a good chance Vodafone's stock price is around the bottom, especially with £4 Billion in buybacks on the horizon. If you invest through an ISA, there's a reasonable chance that an investment in Vodafone will outperform Bonds.

I agree SUFC, I believe 60p will be achieved this year.

I too was surprised when I just looked back in and see the current price; With hindsight, obvious shakeout first thing this morning.