Member Info for fleccy

Steve.W, for AKO I get a total of 90,561,641 short sell stocks. When you calculated your figure of just under £10 Million loss did you take account of their 11th December short for 49,759,143 shares being liable for the 28 Dec 2023 dividend of 2.31p? Giving a dividend liability of £1,149,436.

I actually think AKO's short position losses are closer to £12 Million, but I guessed the short sell prices based on the closing prices for the days they were notified, so a bit of a guess but should be reasonably close.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsw9LqqM3qfp1pbyg2fC4UnADyTjldJjpbBz0ejR1F7KI6w6k1OhPW65Iz80lXOgTJh19gwwG7o85U/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

As I mentioned previously, my chart figures are low since the calculations are based on the GoogleFinance last recorded live price of 132.7p, whereas the actual closing price for BT was 134.25, the calculations should autocorrect when the true live price goes through tomorrow.

Pas, maybe Brew is offended by the amount of ramping that goes on on this chat page. I honestly haven't seen a chat page with participants ramping a stock as much as QBT is ramped on here. If FG f arts, some on here would advertise it as a reason to top up.

"the current CEO will take the credit for a turnaround that involves spending less on a dubious project."

Which dubious project is that?

I just opened the page looking for discussions on Lloyds, but I appear to looking in the wrong place. Can someone direct me to the real Lloyds discussion page?

I've just done a chart for Canada PPIB, they must be down around £19 million based on the closing prices on the dates they opened their short selling positions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSzpntXIbDbv3WIJxMzgrF484U08WUxqoWPJuzrHhTKoVPC-2NGC_bsiH4p5RVM3E8LnsOtS6NazImN/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

"General charges

£9.50 per online trade to buy and sell funds and UK stocks.

£36 annual customer admin fee covers ISA and Share Dealing Accounts.

SIPP quarterly fee of £22.50 for account values of £50,000 or less, £45 for values over £50,000"

https://www.halifax.co.uk/investing/start-investing/share-dealing-services/charges.html

A little caveat about the chart, it's based on the last live price as recorded by GoogleFinance, rather than Friday's closing price, so it's actually worse for AKO than the chart shows. The last live price used in the chart is 1.55p lower than Friday's closing price of 134.25p, and is currently showing as 132.7p.

Strike, if I'm correct all AKO's short positions are now showing a paper loss.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsw9LqqM3qfp1pbyg2fC4UnADyTjldJjpbBz0ejR1F7KI6w6k1OhPW65Iz80lXOgTJh19gwwG7o85U/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

In 2023 BT said:

"Beyond FY24, we continue to expect consistent and predictable adjusted revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth driven by CPI-linked pricing and by cost transformation. We remain confident in expanding normalised free cash flow by at least £1.5bn, when compared with FY22, by the end of the decade. This comes from lower capex and lower opex as we move past peak capex and towards an all-fibre, all-IP network"

FY25 outlook:

"Adjusted revenue growth of 0-1% and EBITDA of around £8.2bn; capital expenditure excluding spectrum less than £4.8bn; normalised free cash flow of around £1.5bn

Mid-term guidance: Consistent and predictable adjusted2 revenue growth and EBITDA growth ahead of revenue, enhanced by cost transformation from FY26 to FY30; capital expenditure excluding spectrum less than £4.8bn until FY26, reducing by c. £1bn post peak FTTP build; normalised free cash flow of c. £2.0bn in FY27 and c. £3.0bn by the end of the decade"

The FY22 Free Cash Flow came in at £1.392 Billion, if you add £1.5 Billion to that you get £2.892 Billion, so roughly rounded up to £3 Billion which ties in with what Kirkby said in her end of decade outlook.

Basically Kirkby said the same yesterday as Jansen said in 2023, the only difference being that Kirkby added the two figures up for the analysts and gave the resultant rounded figure. I can only conclude that the analysts either can't add up, can't read and interpret, or they had a vested interest in ignoring Jansen in 2023.

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/fy23/q4/q4-fy23-release.pdf

https://www.bt.com/bt-plc/assets/documents/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/quarterly-results/fy24/h2/h2-fy24-release.pdf

If I guessed AKO's short selling price's correctly, all their shorts are now underwater if still in play. Around £13 Million down now.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsw9LqqM3qfp1pbyg2fC4UnADyTjldJjpbBz0ejR1F7KI6w6k1OhPW65Iz80lXOgTJh19gwwG7o85U/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

Why would I need to comment, haven't I been saying that BT is an undervalued cost cutting play for years? Everything I'm reading in online articles today is only what I've been saying since 2020, funny how the market only now wakes up to it when it's been obvious to anyone following the company reports since then.

Suthy, I'm interested in Crypto, QBT and many other things. I've chosen to post on here because it's a busy forum and I have an opinion. Instead of discussing the points I've raised, more often than not the responses seem to be focused on me and not what I've actually said.

I've never hidden the fact that I dislike BTC, or that I have serious doubts about QBT's ability to achieve the same results on the BTC network as they have in the lab.

We all have our own opinions, some on here have full confidence that QBT will achieve their goals and see the share price go stratospheric, personally I put the chances of QBT succeeding at less than 10%; But only because it'll upset too many if I said less than 1%.

I've read through the RNS and the key point is, as far as I can tell, that CL17 has agreed to pay the receiver €170,000 to give up their 30% rights in any settlement, which looks pretty good since 30% of €700,000 is €210,000. CL17 are betting that the Venice Court of Appeal sets the hearing date to approve the settlement before it issues its ruling on the appeal, otherwise the offer of €700,000 will be void. If you subtract the €170,000 paid to the receiver, from the €700,000 expected settlement, CL17 will be in pocket by around €530,000 once they receive the settlement funds.

CL17 are still pursuing the main defendant and one other for the remaining €5.575 million since they aren't included in the appeal, or the €700,000 settlement. It's hard to know if CL17 will ever be successful in recovering the outstanding €5.575 million, so far they appear to be struggling to persuade these two defendants to pay up.

The reason I believe this to be irrelevant, is because at best it'll cover QBT's operating costs for a couple of years, should they also receive the €5,575,000, but it'll make no difference when it comes to the success or failure of QBT's product offerings. The only thing that'll save QBT is if their innovations show real world efficiency improvements matching those seen in the lab.

The chart I made guessing AKO's entry price points, for short positions, now indicates that AKO is losing on their aggregate holding; Nearly £3million loss.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsw9LqqM3qfp1pbyg2fC4UnADyTjldJjpbBz0ejR1F7KI6w6k1OhPW65Iz80lXOgTJh19gwwG7o85U/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive

End of next month, should be interesting.

8% Simple Interest is a standard figure, it appears to be what the Financial Ombudsman Service uses.

https://www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/businesses/resolving-complaint/understanding-compensation

No idea, but the higher the price rises the more it reduces their profit. BT also pays a chunky 5.39p per share Final Dividend in August, so if BT maintains the dividend at that level it'll be a drain on any paper profit they might have accumulated. Normally the share price dips by the amount of the dividend, but if BT is seeing good upward momentum going into ex dividend it might encourage some of the short's to get out, if an increasing share price doesn't do the job before then. As well as tomorrows results there's also the court case to consider, the result of the court case could determine the actions of the short's.

"Clearly the figures have since increased (inflation)"

No, the excuse for increasing the claim followed information provided by BT, in my opinion it was used as a lever to encourage BT to settle out of court, which BT hasn't done.

"OK, So I understand that they have better prospects of a win on the split purchase part, given OFCOM somewhat let them off on that issue."

I take the complete opposite view, the whole point of OFCOM pushing BT into reducing prices was due to lack of engagement by elderly people, Split purchase and Business customers are both engaged according to OFCOM; Also the Split purchase and Business customer litigation period is much wider than the landline only residential customer. Patourel's lawyers aren't just asking the CAT to litigate, they're also asking then to regulate.

"The Proposed Class includes all persons domiciled in the United Kingdom (except in the Hull Area) who, during the Claim Period, bought a BT Standalone Fixed Voice Service (“BT SFV Service”), excluding BT Basic and BT Home Phone Saver (“Excluded Services”). A BT SVF Service means any residential landline calling plan service provided by BT, except for the Excluded Services, which (i) includes landline line rental and (ii) has not been sold as part of a bundle with broadband.

The Proposed Class is split into two Proposed Sub-classes, namely:

(a) BT Voice Only Customers: Members of the Proposed Class who, during the applicable Claim Period as defined below, bought a BT SFV Service but did not, at the same time, buy a broadband service, either from BT or any other provider.

(b) BT Split Purchase Customers: Members of the Proposed Class who, during the applicable Claim Period as defined below, have bought at the same time both (i) a BT SFV Service; and (ii) a broadband service, either from BT or any other provider.

The Claim Period means:

(a) for residential BT Voice Only Customers, between 1 October 2015 and 1 April 2018 inclusive;

(b) for business BT Voice Only Customers, between 1 October 2015 and the date of the Tribunal’s final determination of the claims made by the Proposed Sub-class of BT Voice Only Customers or their earlier settlement (or settlement of any part thereof); and

(c) for BT Split Purchase Customers, between 1 October 2015 and the date of the Tribunal’s final determination of the claims made by the Proposed Sub"

https://www.catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/files/2021-01/1381_Patourel_summary_260121.pdf