Member Info for fleccy

Haha Mandy's back. One post and straight onto my filter list, I can safely say that's a record breaker.

"you are as clueless as flec"

Lol, at least LTI's happy with the slop on the chart.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAHrkMBpSHc

Thanks Poker.

Forgot to add the 5 day chart:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NG:LON?window=5D

See if you can see the rock climber on the cliff face and the Freestyle skier on the slope.

Poker it's just gearing, all about technicals. Being down 19% since the 22nd close, using Googles recalculation model, has absolutely nothing to do with sentiment.

The market loved NG's Rights Issue announcement so much, in appreciation they dropped the price by around £1.27 on results day. Had the share price held at £11.27 pre Ex-Rights, the TERP adjustment Ex-Rights morning would have been around £10.23. The current price is around £8.55, or 16% below the Theoretical Ex-Rights Price for pre results day close of £11.27, of course this drop is purely down to technicals and nothing to do with sentiment, right?

Just a bit of advice to anyone corresponding with LTI. He has to have the last word, with a Black and White view of everything, meaning he's always right and anyone disagreeing with him are wrong. There's only one opinion that counts, his.

You're oversimplifying things, there are different classes represented in the case; You have the landline only, Split Purchase and certain business customers represented. OFCOM ruled that Split purchase and business customers are well engaged, so weren't covered under the previous voluntary deal. When OFCOM turned the screws on BT to reduce landline only charges, it had little to do with overcharging and everything to do with engagement of older people. The focus for OFCOM was aimed at reducing charges for unengaged older people, who just pay any increases without looking for better deals, they deemed split purchase and business as engaged. As I've said previously, Patourel's lawyers aren't just asking for compensation, they're asking the CAT to regulate BT in respect of split purchase customers, effectively overruling OFCOM's view.

Baz they are both similar calculations to calculate TERP, except in your calculation they've done away with quantities of previously held shares and rights issue shares and instead calculated TERP based on the ratio between offer shares and shares previously held.

I have no idea which is the most accurate without delving into it, but £10.18 and £10.23 are quite close to each other.

The website I used said the formula =

(Market Cap + Cash raised from rights issue)/Total shares after rights issue =

(£44,709,647,671.78 + £7,001,145,921)/5,052,587,194 = £10.23

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ex-rights.asp

"A simple way to estimate the theoretical ex-rights price is to add the current market value of all shares existing before the rights issue and the funds raised as a result of the rights issue sales. This number is then divided by the total number of shares in existence after the rights issue is complete to arrive at a per-share value of those rights"

This is a link to a small spreadsheet I made to do the calculations:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQEWYioCX64zqjTfgCXb6s1j5LxISz79OeSG6ZUnCvOZ2qCQqIZ6cVLewcf51nyfmfKi4cWkLbATX00/pubhtml

LTI I'll deal with each point in my previous post. First I'll deal with my comment about the Rights issue announcement damaging sentiment. On the 22nd May, pre results day, the closing price was around £11.27, now if sentiment was intact you would have expected the price to stay around that level post results, but it didn't . At the end of results day the closing price was around £10.00, so the share price dropped around 11%. Because the share price dropped 11% on results day, closing around £10, it brought the TERP price down with it.

Because of our conversation I decided to look up how to calculate TERP and did some calculations:

Total shares including Treasury shares (Pre Rights issue) 3,967,138,214

Rights issue Number of shares 1,085,448,980

Cash raised from rights issue £7,001,145,921

Total number of shares after the rights issue 5,052,587,194

Rights offer price £6.45

22nd May Market Cap £44,709,647,671.78

23rd May Market Cap £39,711,053,522.14

If the price had held at around £11.27 for the 23rd May close, assuming the calculation I looked up is correct, the TERP adjustment on the 24th would have been £10.23, but because of the 11% price drop the TERP calculation came in at £9.25.

Currently the share price is 5% below the £9.25 TERP and over 14% below the £10.23 TERP, so to say that the rights issue damaged sentiment isn't nonsense at all, it's fact. If the calculations I've made are in some way incorrect, I'll be happily corrected.

To deal with the other point, it's easy to show that Lloyds has underperformed both Barclays and Natwest, just compare their performance over the last 5 years:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?comparison=LON%3ABARC%2CLON%3ANWG&window=5Y

Lloyds has underperformed 49% worse than Barclays and around 38% worse than Natwest, so the buybacks don't appear to be working as planned, so again I wasn't talking nonsense.

Keep the insults coming they make me laugh, water off a ducks back. 🦆

Class action Gold Rush

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/how-a-class-action-gold-rush-is-drowning-uk-plc-in-legal-wrangling/ar-BB1nam2o?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LCTS&cvid=485081e5e39048e18954a2679267904c&ei=82

Considering the case ended in March, the length of time reaching a judgement might indicate how difficult it is for the CAT to reach a decision. Is it the courts that regulate the Telecom companies, or OFCOM?

Admittedly I may have misinterpreted the working's of the Ex-Rights market adjustment, although I'm still really vague on the workings of it; That aside I'm correct in saying that the Rights Issue has damaged sentiment toward the stock, and it's created uncertainty for shareholders going forward. Something else that's clear, NG wouldn't have diluted their stock unless they absolutely had to.

The thing with you LTI is that you pick and choose a narrative to suit your own thought processes, for example your defence of Lloyds for choosing buybacks over dividends is an example of what I'm talking about. Nunn debased the dividend and ploughed cash into buybacks and Lloyds has underperformed since. There's no proof that Nunn's policies has helped the share price, he could easily have reinstated AHO's policy of only doing share buybacks to cover block listings and reinstated at the existing pre covid progressive dividend level; It's true there's no proof that continuing AHO's dividend and buyback policies would have raised the price above the current level, but shareholders would have choices to reinvest the extra dividends back in to Lloyds, or elsewhere. Nunn kicked existing Lloyds shareholders in the teeth and there's a chance NG shareholders might have received a similar kicking, time will tell.

You don't have to respond to me LTI, you could just filter me and you'd be free of my "nonsense" forever. I see plenty of posts I don't agree with and more often than not I just ignore them.

"why are you on this board ?- you are now officially a troll."

Not really, I've been watching NG for years, even my wife commented that I'd previously talked about jumping in when the price was impacted by the strikes in the US, in the end I didn't take the leap. If the price drops below the Rights issue price I'll seriously reconsider again, and with enough uncertainty who's to say that wont happen. Of course any opinions expressed on here wont make a blind bit of difference, so I'm not sure why you're even bothered about me expressing an opinion. You should take a chill pill and not get so wound up, it's bad for your health.

"The new shares are already accounted for in the market valuation."

That may be true, but you've got Ex Dividend on the 6th June followed by commencement of dealings for the fully paid new shares on the 12th June; Isn't it possible that many may decide to sell if there's a quick profit to be made there and then, rather than holding?

"the price drop on the 23rd was for the reason as with any other stock on results day with the additional news of a RI to digest"

So you're saying the over 11% drop on the 23rd was due to sentiment?

I suppose it's a case of seeing where it goes from here now, once the extra 1,085,448,980 new shares hit the open market.

Ok so if I'm understanding it correctly, you're saying a price adjustment took place on the morning of the 24th May, is that correct? I have to admit Rights issues are a grey area for me and even though I've googled rights issue price adjustments I'm still unclear when the adjustment takes place, although it would make sense that it occurs in a similar fashion to Ex-Dividend adjustments and occur on the Ex-Rights morning.

What was the price drop on the 23rd caused by then? Assuming the drop on the 24th was a stock market price adjustment due to Ex-Rights day.

"NG has gone XR - the share price currently reflects about 29% more shares being bought at 645p per shares"

The share price wouldn't have dropped to the current level if selling pressure hadn't driven the price down, so the reduction in the price must have been due to negative sentiment on the back of the rights issue announcement, wouldn't you agree?

It isn't surprising that the rights issue damaged sentiment, this is how Investopedia describes Rights Issues:

"A rights issue is one way for a cash-strapped company to raise capital often to pay down debt. Shareholders can buy new shares at a discount for a certain period. With a rights issue, because more shares are issued to the market, the stock price is diluted and will likely go down"

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/understanding-rights-issues/#:~:text=A%20rights%20issue%20is%20one,and%20will%20likely%20go%20down.

Obviously NG haven't done it to pay down debt, but it clearly shows that their debt is already too high.

LMAO what does that make you then?