I bought in yesterday morning - a day early! Never mind. Short of a Truss style budget tomorrow then hopefully we'll be back up pretty soon (although all eyes on Credit Suisse which really will start a domino collapse!)
Well I wonder if we will see a bit of a bounce here in the coming days? Ok we've got the budget hanging over our heads but so long as we don't have a Truss moment then I think it could be on the cards.
Very little about the ASX listing (looking for June I think) and absolutely nothing about consolidation rumours when that happens. Good presentation on the whole but we need to see how NCM buyout plays out - little he can do at the mo.
Good call Zoros and that would be far more sensible. But when NCM came under attack I sold half my GGP to make sure I had some powder dry in case of any dilutions - I've been expecting a consolidation anyhow and that can lead to drops in SP (real). I was over-exposed anyhow.
This is hte articel in question:
Newcrest Mining’s Telfer gold operation could be sold to Greatland Gold, the gold giant’s junior partner in the nearby Havieron deposit.
Havieron has been touted as one of the best Australian copper-gold discoveries in recent memory.
Industry sources suggest Greatland Gold is looking at its options to bid for Telfer and take back control of Haveiron if Newmont acquires the Australian-listed Newcrest Mining after earlier making a $24bn buyout proposal.
Expectations are Telfer could be for sale with or without the merger.
UK listed Greatland has a market capitalisation of about £400m ($715m) and wouldn’t normally be seen as being in the running for a major asset such as Telfer.
Particularly given any buyer will also need to factor in the fact that Telfer already has a $US150m ($225m) capital spent ahead of it for a major mine cutback, as well as the development costs at Havieron - tipped at $$US70m to $US85m over the next year or so.
But Greatland also has a major backer in the form of Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo Metals, which holds about 8.5 per cent of the company’s stock, with warrants that would allow it to move up to around 16 per cent with further investment.
The link to Forrest’s deep pockets runs a little deeper than just an equity investment, as well. Greatland is chaired by Fortescue Metals Group director Mark Barnabas.
Former Fortescue chief executive Elizabeth Gaines is also on the board, along with former Fortescue operations director Paul Hallam, although it has been some time since the veteran resources executive last saw the inside of the Fortescue offices.
Greatland recently appointed former Fortescue head of corporate development Jeremy Meynert, along with a couple of members of its team, as its chief development officer.
None of that means a deal will definitely be done, but Wyloo boss Luca Giacovazzi is an admitted admirer of the Havieron deposit.
Giacovazzi told a Canadian mining symposium last week that the company believed Haveiron was a “world class” orebody, noting that Newcrest had already begun building a decline to access the deposit before it had finished its feasibility studies on its development.
“Wonderful ore body, world class ore body, can’t beat it,” he said.
“The great thing about Havieron is they know that it’s such a good ore body that they’re sort of building it before they even finish their studies.”
But Giacovazzi was coy when asked whether Wyloo was considering bidding for Telfer, or would back Greatland in a bid for the gold mine, suggesting the question should be directed to Greatland boss Shaun Day.
“Obviously Telfer is part of their thinking. And obviously there are things happening around Newcrest, which you would be aware of,” he said.
Hi JKieth. Yes it would be strange for them not promote their assets, but the reality is they aren't going to produce the FS /upgraded resource tonight to back that up - as much as we'd like them to. I suspect the Hav element of thier portfolio will be mentioned but they won't be able to dramatically prove it up with confirmed figs as that work is still ongoing. Cheers.
Thanks Chippy. Like I said I still have 50% of my holding in here anyhow, it's just I wanted to de-risk amid what I see as current uncertainties. Now I've done that I'm sure we'll get an RNS out this afternoon saying we've been offered 50p a hare from Rio!!!!
Tav - thanks for the answer. I actually agree with you about the resouce, but that's not the concern: the concern is what would happen to GGP on that journey? If we discover that due to takeovers/corporate games we have to delay decision to mine for 6 months the SP is (barring any other rns) is going to take a hit. But this also touches on a wider issue: if the resource is so good, why haave we not had a single bit of interest in anyone buying us out? Does it all go back to the future of Telfer and how that would dictate what's needed to bring Hav into production? Cheers.
Morning all. I've sold half my shares this morning for a number of reasons.
1. I was too over exposed in GGP anyhow so this has been on my mind for some time.
2. I need a bit of a cash call - hopefully won't have to use the cash in my ISA but, like death, the taxman cometh!
3. I have been concerned about the ASX listing and the pending share consolidation that I think might be a part of that.
4. The takeoever bid for NCM, and some saying they might divest from Oz altogether(!) makes me wonder if the DTM will be postponed for a few months whilst the corporate taekover games are ongoing.
5. Talk of GGP taking on Telfer would turn the company into a very different business to the one I invested in. I think it could happen, though unlikely, but we'd be looking at a very different capital base and the need for that would likley mean I'd have to stay invested not for the next 2 years to first ore, but for a decade.
To me, I want to see more details of how the above would work out so I've reduced my exposure with a view to looking to get back in at a later date once some of these are answered. If I have to sacrifice 20% increase/bounce to keep safe then that's acceptable to me in the present time. I do believe in GGP and they do have a wonderful asset, but the SP has been dire recently and SD needs to win control of the company story and make sure he delivers key updates on time. I feel this has drifted somewhat since he took over. (And IMO ALL CEOs with shareholders are story tellers first and foremost - they need to sell the company and make sure there are no surprises).
I hope the above doesn't irk anyone - and as I said I am looking to re-enter once we get through the choppy waters of uncertainty. Cheers all.
This is a link to that fascinating story if anyoen's interested: https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2011/10/03/140815154/dissolve-my-nobel-prize-fast-a-true-story
The gold is still there . . . just needs to be separated out again. Stupid throwing in an 18k ring value though. Maybe try a sovereign next time? (It's a similar tale to the famous Nobel Prize in WW2 - the Nazis came into Denamrk if I recall and a chemist dissolved his freind's nobel prize down via aqua regia, and left it on the shelf in full view of the Germans. They searched for the gold, unaware it was drifting in a jar right in front of them. After the war the gold was extraced and the medal reamde).
This is the article in question:
Newcrest Mining is coming under pressure from investors to appoint an external candidate to replace its outgoing chief executive as speculation mounts that the interim boss is in line to formally be given the top job.
The $20bn gold miner announced in December that Sandeep Biswas was departing the company in what was considered an abrupt move.
While a search for a new leader was underway, chief financial officer Sherry Duhe was appointed interim CEO.
Ms Duhe joined Newcrest from Woodside last year where she was CFO, and she had been a finance manager at Shell before that. Sources suggest Ms Duhe will be offered the permanent CEO position.
But some of shareholders are understood to have written and spoken to the company’s board, led by Peter Tomsett, urging it to hire a chief executive externally with operational experience. They consider Ms Duhe as an executive with more of a finance background.
Sources claim only one of the top 10 shareholders were in favour of Ms Duhe’s appointment, with the expectation she will sell the Havieron joint venture in WA with Greatland Gold. But some are of the belief the operation will be sold regardless of who is appointed CEO.
Other management have left, including Australasian chief operating officer Phil Stephenson, who left Newcrest at the end of last year, with Americas COO Craig Jones to assume control of all operations on an interim basis.
Mr Biswas faced complaints about his management style, but was credited with rescuing Newcrest from the parlous situation the company faced when he joined in 2014. The gold major was still reeling from the combined impact of falling gold prices and its ill-fated $10.5bn scrip acquisition of Lihir Gold in 2010.
The company suffered a first strike over its remuneration report in November, with more than 36 per cent of shares voted against its pay structure after proxy advisers raised concerns about the generous bonus for the CEO. This is despite falling cashflow and as its share price slumped in September in line with other gold stocks before staging a recovery.
Newcrest’s largest shareholder is BlackRock with a 10.79 per cent holding, according to Bloomberg data.
Other major shareholders are Australian fund manager Allan Gray with 7.36 per cent, State Street with 6.11 per cent, Van Eck with 4.85 per cent and Vanguard Group with 4.39 per cent.
Newcrest shares closed up 82c on Thursday to $23.11.