Member Info for Fishysaurus

What DID they learn from the TE8 drill. What are the similarities and differences to what is know about the Algerian Paleo ?

I think that a 5% drop on this volume is rather overdone.

However, that being said it does not look like there has been significant volumes bought or sold in the last few weeks - which suggest no one is hoovering up much as a precursor to a bid, nor offloading significant volume.

I think on what we currently have in the bag we are under valued, and of course if further wells were drilled close to the existing TE6, one would give a producer more volume - without even implying any uplift from the seismic.

However many may critise JP for his salemanship at the Gerkin and sailing events (and I thought there was too much booze and the hyperbole was over the top) I am reasured by Schlum, pipeline commitments etc that we have a great asset, otherwise they would not have made any commitments. JP might be guilt of 'overselling' but he is not guilty of any form of 'fraud'.

That being said if Te9 finds nothing, I think the LE would struggle to hit £1, if we have a good find in the TAGI then this validates the model and the seismic and would push us more towards the £5 - however if we hit in the Paleo too then bets are off.

I just find it interesting that in a 'Deep Dive' about the area, and that we have already drilled the Paleo at TE8 that they don't appear to be releasing ANY information about it.

We know it has a thick independent salt seal, we know that the Paleo is the source rock for the TAGI gas. I get the complexity with the porosity of the TAGI (which is the great issue for the TAGI), but that is not applicable to the Paleo, so why not tell us what they found when they drilled it - especially as Brian appears to think it is a game changer ?

The logic behind this can only be - secure the TAGI Basin volumes with the TE9 drill (and possibly with 10), we are then 'safe' in terms of the LE - but if they want to be O&G 'immortals' then the Paleo must be drilled (more than just at TE9) before we get to LE I would say.
I assume that the info they got from TE8 Paleo was good otherwise why would they bother looking again in TE 9 ?

Sorry to bang on but I have some understanding of this as I have a degree in Geology and Geophysics (though I am not working in O&G)I find it hard that the deep dive would not reveal more about the Paleo (which they must have) when clearly looking at Algeria and what other Majors are doing that the Paleo is the more significant reservoir of the two.

Just a question was there any mention of what they found in the Paleo at TE-8 - I don't ever recollect anything more than the 'Paleo play opener' comments.

I have said for a long time that the Paleo is the key to our LE price, based on the Algerian geology - we only have a 10TCf 'placeholder' in our model, whereas the ratio is 4:1 Paleo to Tagi in Algeria. Which if you assume a high case of 20TCf Tagi would give us 80TCf Paleo !! (High Case) or low Case 9TCf Tagi and 36Tcf Paleo (45TCf).

I don't know the geology of the Repsol area, the Tagi might be more eroded and thin there - however that they consider the Paleo to be the major target indicates how important they believe it is.

I hold sound shares in TD Waterhouse Share and TD ISA also in HL ISA and SIPP - the only issue I had with warrants was with TD Waterhouse who said that I could not hold them in an ISA.

I have converted those in HL and TD share account into shares - very easy process. TD (or rather Capita) sent me a share certificate for the warrants in the TD ISA which I still have to convert.

Normally you would expect a rise as the drill approaches target, however I suspect that some people will be looking to sell into the rise to de-risk.

Though I have never sold any of my sound shares I had pondered selling a small amount on a decent rise but looking at the price action of the last few months I don't think that we are going to get a significant rise (unless of course leaky news of results or an offer start to circulate then we will see a rise with volume I suspect)

You can look and the black side of things and surmise that JP and Marco have set this company up to 'shaft' us PIs.

Or on the bright view - he has realised that he is going to make so much money when he cashes his Sound share at LE he realises that he can afford to set up, own and run his own O&G company and quite fancies the idea rather than having to answer to shareholders.

I had a similar experience with Towrey advisors, in my SIPP and ISA I had a lot in Sound (still do but then at 12p)) and also another AIM stock IQE (then at 20p, now at £1 ) and they advised selling both and putting into certain safe funds.

Both now have made reasonably large returns and both offfer the potential for significant further returns.

I knew in advance what they would say to my holding AIM stocks (especially in a SIPP) so decided that paying £3K for advice would be pointless so I just put further sums into both of my AIM stocks instead !

After all this time (for me) with Sound, though 'quick LE cash' has some attractions I would prefer the company to fully exploit the exploration opportunities. IF that means a TE-12 to explore the new Veyron zone then I think we should.

If we hit good results on TE9 and TE10 - the share price will start to reflect this and underpin things, If the next drills are good then knowing this personally I can 'release' other funds to enjoy life more now, knowing that Sound was going to give me a great pot in say another 12 months.

Like many I have (am) taking risks with this O&G exploration investment, though £2-3 in the next 6 months would be a great return I want the return to reflect the risk and if this means pushing the exploration to give us a figure closer (or above) the mythical £10 then personally that is what I want to do. I realise for some that is not for them and they just want a quick LE.

I think the board could / should consider this when the TE9 results in clear. After all if a buyer want to purchase us, there also is no better way of getting a better price than saying you want to do further drills to get a higher return for shareholders - the buyer is likely to increase their offer in the hope of persuading the company to recommend the LE before the purchase price increases more.

It has been said that we could become 'too expensive' but consortiums of purchasers are not unknown in O&G.

The other key controlling factor will be the wishes of the Moroccan authorities who will be keen for a 'producer' to be in control soon so they can start to extract the gas.

I wonder if the technical deep dive is only for the benefit of PIs - if they don't have a data room open then it would be a useful source of info, or for Brian to get a message over.
After all a very technical presentation is going to go over the heads of most PIs - with its location at the GS, it is not going to be a 'Noddy' presentation, Brian will be giving it the full technical I suspect.

Has anyone got any comments on though we have very small volume traded so far today, we have a very large spread between Bid and Offer - almost 2p

Quite high volume for such an early time of the day ?

Looking at the volume, it is a large move on what so far looks like very little volume - anyone with any insight on L2 ?

If its a transfer then we should see the corresponding amount for a sale at some point. If not that is a lot for the MMs to accumulate to fill a buy order.

As said, that is a big buy, in fact one of the biggest for Sound I have seen - perhaps there is news coming ?

It can easily be quite a range of prices based on what we actually find of course. If you take the basin model 9-17-31 as the basis (even if you assume no increase in the model, though with any hit on the paleo this increases significantly) for the end result. If you take the lower end of this: lets say proved 4Tcf = 4*1.5 =�6 assume then15% for the inferred Tcf = lets say only 6Tcf =0.225*6= �1.35 � so around 10Tcf proved and inferred Already you have �7+ and not too large a sum for a major or a nation player to pay I think the key is that in the basin model there is a 'placeholder' of 10Tcf assumed for the Paleo, however in Algeria the ratio of Paleo to Tagi is 4:1 - so that could start to give some significantly higher figures.

About as good as your one last week about Sound falling 15 % - why don't you just say, it is what you would like to happen ! At least it would carry more validity !

For me though I despise what they try and do - on the other hand I find it very reassuring as all they are doing is actually confirming at some point Sound is likely to fly and that they want part of it. All these " We are only on here so that we make all you deluded holders sell and not lose all your money " - I am so convinced by people who hold no sound shares yet appear to spend almost the entire day on here. As said, they are just reinforcing the reasons to be long on sound for me.

What a surprise the usual bashers appear to have eased off today - no 15-20% drop predictions, no here come 20p - and the share price is holding and the volumes are low. I presume the shorters have other targets today.

For the campaign of pushing the price down to end.... and suddenly the board will be full of people talking about �1 + The comments being dropped " Is it all a fraud ? " " The price will drop 10-15% tomorrow " They are just trying to scare people - they know no more than anyone else. Just designed to get in cheap.