Member Info for Finley1

Buybacks will tend to reduce the share price. It doesn’t seem to be the case with IMB and Bats.

Since the buybacks have commenced the relevant share prices have increased.

Berkshire Hathaway have an even bigger pile of cash, and recently implemented a buyback

programme. I think your find that the U.K. is unloved. To my mind Lgen should be buying back

stock, why because most of the mergers and acquisitions are overpriced and afterwards the

company buying the other company doesn’t see the rewards in the share price, just the

increased debt to service.

Aviva seem to be supporting an increased share value since the buyback program, so why

wouldn’t it work here.

Something to think about.

The U.K. property market is a barometer of the U.K. economy. Normally when the housing market is doing well so is the economy. To my mind we need the base rate at 3% . I don’t know what you do for a living but I invest in property and all I hear back is people are sitting on

their hands due to waiting for cheaper rates.

Bailey should be setting out a timetable, we have gone from 12% to 3.4%, inflation . They are

not getting on with it, we need interest rates down and sharpest. We also don’t want a distressed housing market as that offers no comparable value.

You may not like the fact that the housing market is a barometer of the economy but that’s how it is, especially in the U.K.

What with the recent rise across the markets, it’s now a tricky decision . My view is that interest

rate cuts are priced in. What will be the next driver of the market, I don’t think there is one.

Interest rates need to drop to something like 3% to give the property market a kick up the rear.

Can’t see that happening by out to lunch Bailey. I would say we may be in for another tough year.

I did try to contact dearest Bailey but he is of course out to lunch !

I’m not privy to the figures. It makes no sense to sell a profitable and expanding business.

All I know having spent time in construction is the house builders are struggling. Most of

the big boys are working on low margin partnership deals to secure revenue.

I would also say that build costs are constantly rising, if you cast an eye over say Persimmon it

will be fairly evident that they don’t have a handle on costs over a couple of 3 year period.

Also when work is slack costs also increase because these are volume businesses.

The really smart people in life use a combination of factors to invest. The T/A argument is

all ok and relies on in theory mean averages, ie the share count being the same. When Bats

are buying back shares the averages are therefore changing, so the so called pivot points

Fibulation bands, and spinning tops are no longer a guaranteed reference because the input data has changed.

Also chuck into the equation the growth factor from Non Combustables which is not quantified historically , and the whole TA argument becomes an unknown.

My view, so I’m taking my spinning tops and drawing a fibocci line underneath all the hype.

Something to think about

Should read Rothschild, same thing top end broker. Expensive. I dare say they will quote the

Challenging environment, while of course maintaining their fee structure.

Some things never change

Not the ideal time to be trying to offload a House builder. The sector stuck in the doldrums.

And why now is it burning cash ? Not a smart move, even with the flash Goldman Sachs trying to off load it. I dare say they won’t be cheap on the fee side.

Cala were originally more of a top end developer, when Lgen took them over in the good days.

Unfortunately, I dare say that deal wasn’t a good one for lgen. Not original and bright thinking

by the new CEO, maybe they should just keep it and try and expand low margin partnership deals until the housing environment changes. After all isn’t Lgen about long term investing !

Something to think about

Mondi took a kicking for pulling out of Russia and that has had a knock on the share price.

I didn’t think Smiths last update was anything to shout about, it seemed to be increasing debt

and could be argued it wasn’t the better company.

The merger statement quote significant cost savings due to combining the businesses. So, to be fair I take note of what they say, rather than views on here.

If the economy improves and interest rates start to come down, it will be a good

recovery play, and probably a good bet , because once Nvidia bursts it’s bubble and it

will do, surely a rotation will occur.

Something to think about

According to the RNS statements regarding the merger, there are to be significant cost savings due to the merger. Why would you then sell, surely with the chatter of rate reductions by the FED , one would assume that the share price post merger would add some value.

It seems to me a no brainer and a share to hold and review the end of the year.

Rotation out of tech !

Well, the deal has been agreed in principle, key roles have been established and Smith ceo is

retiring. Why would it not complete. Why is the share price not near the recommended offer,

because we are in a bear market.

It’s obvious, even to an idiot . Even better news in that there is an extension to April, maybe

to dot the I’s and cross the t’s and flush out any other interest. Some people read too much

into scenarios and go off on a tangent of nonsense.

Something to think about

I saw that Nvidia had another leg up in the week. Having sold out of the qqq’s a while ago,

it’s frustrating to see the continued rise. The so called experts, and the talk of value stocks

and rotation, you do have to question your strategy with the U.K. market.

I’ve been betting for a while that the tech side would come off, and thus the global funds

that track these shares would also come off. To be fair, if you were fresh to investing today

with money ready to work, buying funds that are tied to tech surely has to be a bad bet,

given the past rise ?

So, I’m more inclined to be a steady Eddie with the U.K. market and buy the dips. Having said

that I do have exposure to the S and P 500 and I’m more happier with that than the qqq’s.

Aren’t you just all stick to death of the talk of AI and all these techno weirdo’s, having a large

say on the future of mankind, and people losing the bond they need with individuals.

Something to think about !

Hi Strictly,

I was watching a clip from Elon Musk on schooling and education, and I’ve tried to have

a conversation with some elites, his point basically is the whole principle of schooling

needs to be thrown out the window and started again.

Of course it won’t be, but it’s a common point from business that the kids coming out of

education are not fit for business. Why, is that, well it’s the great elites who run the shooting

match, and have no interest in what business is saying, and it’s needs.

A shame really, because the consequence particularly with the house building trade is

that all the house builders want to build is little noddy houses, which they have got

down to a semi skilled level of construction.

Tradesmen in there 50’s are leaving the industry in their masses, because it’s not the building

trade they all started in.

And, yes I know loads of self made people, who didn’t enjoy school purely because we just

all wanted to get out and start earning money and starting businesses. Even more opportunities today for hard working young people, and property is particularly appealing.

I did like your comment about the boy from Bermondsey. London, the east end

where I grew up from a working class background has produced some of the

best businessman by far.

All out of hard working class values, and not a graduate in site, those were the days.

Strictly,

Back in the day Berkeley made a shed load of money from the development of London, a

licence to print money. Now a days the volume housebuilders don’t want to develop

London, they earn more money just putting little noddy houses on the green belt.

That was a licence to print money with zero interest rates and the help to buy scheme. So, the

bet is now for shareholders and it is a bet, will the government step in again and introduce

incentives.

I’m not so sure, Hunt doesn’t seem to be talking up the tax incentives, so I’ve sold out of

Housebuilders. Retendering on jobs, and cost savings which are the norm for

subbies but then Boyes seems to have a bright idea, which I think is only being done to

increase his free share handout, and merge, but it’s a takeover.

I will revisit after the budget.

Finally, I’ve found Bellway good to work for.

Strictly,

There is a saying and it’s “Don’t over Trade”, basically don’t take on to much work. So, basically

Barratt are going to expand their operation in a high interest rate environment, with no volume

guaranteed sales, other than the lower margin HA and partnership deals.

Interest rates will not revisit historic lows so the proposed strategy is therefore risky, and

grandstanding by the board, who are not that sharp.

Also, having supplied product to a vast number of construction companies over the years

the worse by far to work for is Persimmon. Their quality is absolutely shocking, they got

away for years on nailing down stubbies,but as you have probably seen build costs have

been up over the last couple of years.

I’ve supplied large builders for years with product. Barratt have only recently recovered from

that idiot Mark Clare buying Wilson Bowden. Redrow all I see is large developments not selling and not in great locations. All talk of come the Summer and interest rate cuts, it’s all a gamble

. Is there a good mass market with high interest rates, seeing as the business only did well with

zero rates and help to buy.

Steven Boyes grandstanding and lost the direction of the business. Started as a surveyor up

North lined his pockets with large share awards, he not the sharpest pencil, neither are the

rest of the board. Cash flow will also surely be impaired.

Why are Redrow selling, probably because they see a stagnant market for a few years and

having cash flow issues as a result.

The only business is the HA and the reduced margin partnership deals.

It’s all a large gamble, hopefully the competition competition will give the deal a good kicking

and not allow it, why would they allow it, what’s the benefit to the public, there isn’t one.

Something to think about

Muddy Waters were stirring up trouble on a yank commercial mortgage fund/etf, stating that

the book value of the properties wouldn’t take the new revised commercial mortgage rates.

I reckon Citi are just taking a flyer along those lines, probably just copy and paste and adapt,

trying to make an angle against Lgen, lazy reporting.

I’ve reviewed the half year report, and to be fair I’m no been counter. It states on track

to deliver full year guidance , and a statement of continually growing earnings per shares

by more than 5 % a year, and restating the 5 year plan of growth.

Antonio came into stewardship on 1st Jan, gut feeling is he’s not a kitchen sinker, so CITIs

note is just an estimate, they are talking a large drop in earnings which contradict the half

year report.

Anyhow, back a couple of years ago they had a buy rating, and to be fair they are not a broker

I take a lot of notice of, so I’m happy to read their point of view, but I don’t agree with it.

My opinion, something to think about.