Member Info for Finley1

The housing market is not looking investable for the small investor. Why is that, well the amount of legislation coming down the pipe for landlords, makes it a non starter, why bother.

Companies like Lgen will end up doing partnership deals with the big housebuilders and become like Europe, where there is a bigger foot print of commercial landlords.

That will have a knock on effect for the housebuilders profits, so why bother owning them. If Labour do not do anything to stimulate the housing market, help to buy, etc, the only option they have left to build any large numbers is commercial investors.

Seeing as Blackstone have just offloaded a fairly sizeable investment in the U.K., is this a sign that they don’t like the way Starmer is shaping up.

The Labour front bench appear woefully inexperienced and it’s now showing that they are completely out of their depth. What does that means for us investors, I think it should mean let Starmer keep appearing as ‘Fox Man ‘ off of spitting image, and get some businessmen in to run the country !

Something to think about.

It’s fairly apparent that you will pick up Lgen shares cheaper than today that’s my point and has been for a while.

Of course each to their own. Something to think about.

Seeing as the recent jobs number was received negatively, once the FED start to reduce rates, how long will it take to recover 6months a year 18 months. The jobs missed was pretty substantial so my view is future negative news on the economy is not priced in, hence markets will move lower.

You should be buying once a share price has stabilised for say 3 days, any other purchases are a gamble as is today in my opinion.

More data coming from the states in the next couple of weeks if negative, you of course know the answer. The share price is in a downtrend and has been for a number of months.

Something to think about.

Seeing as the FED are behind the curve, it would appear that the share price will be going lower.

It appears obvious.

Something to think about

“What a joke the lse is”. Seems a very obvious play if you know how to play the LSE. Nothing was supporting current valuations, so with the jobs number coming in from the states and not received well, it’s created an absolutely excellent opportunity. Investors or the 2 Bob punters have to finally learn that they need to invest in tranches.

I absolutely love the volatility, that’s when the serious players who know what they are doing make money. The only other point to be concerned about is how far behind the curve has the FED been, that point is relevant in trying to achieve the bottom of the cycle, and unfortunately is only an educated guess at present.

Something to think about.

Bam Bantrum I have of course no interest in your opinion, it would be nice to hear something from someone who has had some experience in business at a senior level, these boards are awash with penny punters, who can’t understand why the share price is where it is.

Alas, typical of today’s society where peoples only interest in the bigger picture is watching a rather large tele.

Something to think about.

The share price is only going one way and that is down, unless the New Labour government can interact with big business to deliver the growth the country needs.

Nigel, long departed,constantly moaned about dealing with numerous cabinet ministers regarding investing in the U.K. and the response was it was an immense challenge.

The bet is and it is a bet, will Rachel Reeves fire up the economy, and do the deals with big business. Personally, I think no, why NO because I judge them on their latest statement regarding building 300k houses a year, the statement is nonsense, it’s never been achieved, not consistently in the good times, so how will it be done now, it won’t !

Something to think about.

I think there was a bigger seller clearing a position this morning I noticed a trade around 672 to me it appeared they were closing out. I was watching a M and G fund manager this morning talking about Indonesia and stating the region in general and the lack of growth. Seems to tie in with the feeling that it’s all about a slowing economic picture which clearly states the need for interest rate reductions. The odd quarter percent here and there is not gonna cut it.

Honestly these central bankers are quite frankly useless.

Something to think about

Hi, yes of course you make some valid points. I think the driver in all of what is required from the housing market is of course cheap money, and mortgages. It will be interesting to see what the central banks decide to do, as it’s quite clearly obvious that they are behind the curve, and need to act.

We shall see, how it all unfounds thanks.

Hello Moorhey,

I shouldn’t really say to much, but you have raised a few points, so I’ll kindly respond. My experience in the housing industry at senior level, is as I mentioned the whole sector is run by accountants, that point is very relevant. When the large construction companies can pull in 22% on a private sale, versus 10% ish on a partnership deal with the HA , which option are they going to choose ?

The builders control the narrative. Government, local authorities will get a few partnership deals here and there, but the builders run a business to report to its shareholders. Countryside decided to diverse away and concentrate on HA work, invested in timber frame factory’s etc, it didn’t work on a mass scale.

There is of course a market for HA work, but I’ve always found the builders not that interested in doing it, because unfortunately the game is about making as much money as possible.

Can Labour change the narrative and the mindset of the builders, I think not.

Something to think about. Take care.

It must be noted that whilst you feel that the new Labour government deserves a chance, a statement like building 1.5 million homes over 5 years Is in fact based on nothing ! Having been in the construction trade for some many years, we never got to a sustainable 300k per year.

The industry is run by accountants, many skilled people have left, the central banks are not looking anytime soon to offer cheap money, but we have of course dearest Angela Rayners target. The planning system can’t be changed for the good of the target, because the local authorities have their own agendas, and of course the power, and anyone who has bought a piece of land and tried to build a house, is mired in bureaucracy, and that will not change it will only get worse.

Unfortunately, the statement is nonsense and typical of today’s politicians and sound bites not based on any real facts of delivery.

Don’t you just love politicians. Something to think about

Markets are just going sideways at the minute. Once the central banks actually pull their finger out and get on with interest rate reductions, things will liven up. It will also be interesting to see Labours plan for affordability in the housing market, and how they intend to tackle levelling up with private finance, something Sir Nigel had been very vocal on. Hopefully, investors will get some news shortly on the above points, if done well a strong housing market is always a good sign of a growing economy.

Something to think about.

Pokerchips, I’ve mentioned on this blog that shareholders should be buying shares in tranches, if you study the modern market with the advent of algorithms share prices are sensitive /manipulated . The days of being in fact “ all in “ are behind us the market requires a different approach, if you adopt that thinking you of course can do really well.

Not for everyone, but in order to do well you need to adapt.

Something to think about.

Yes, I’m aware of the wage inflation figure I saw that recently. 6% plus I think I noted, add to that Andrew Baileys lunch bill running at 2% of gdp, and you can see why rates are not coming down !

Something to think about.

I don’t see the situation as worrying, I like volatility as I buy in equal weights when the opportunity presents. I’m always forward looking and each day I review the strategy. What’s causing me concern is we have been at 12% inflation and are now at 2% and we have seen no quick reduction in interest rates. Regardless of what the politicians say on stimulating the economy and the housing market, the odd 1/4 reduction in rates is not going to be a considerable driver to the economy.

The central banks have gone quiet on the conversation on rates, and in my opinion that leads to a flat economy. So, with money needed to work and tech seemingly over valued I’m inclined to go a bit defensive today and have decided to look at gsk.

ESG is nothing new yes, it’s how far Lgen and dearest Simon want to go with the issue. As the statement, mining,oil and gas, steel processing anything that requires a large amount of energy. The statement reminds me of when Bernard Looney decided to get out of chemicals, and sold the business to Jim Radcliffe. Dearest Jim was rubbing his hands together.

These individuals making the decisions still get paid, its the savvy investors who have to way up the point is it going to get worse. Sue Gray has kept a lid on people like Milliband in the run up to the election, what happens when they are in power, will they go esg mad !

Good that Lgen is engaged in discussions on esg helps sustain long term profits. Sounds like a statement from an accountant ! or someone with no practical experience, the world is alas full of them. In order to get iron ore out of the ground you unfortunately have to use diesel to run the heavy machinery and explosives ! Shock and horror.

Plugging the Tesla in and opening the sunroof to fill up with iron ore, ain’t gonna work, on the business plan front. Maybe the lovies at Lgen don’t get that point.

On the broker front it’s concerning that the big boys JPmorgan, Morgan Stanley are offering low targets, make of that what you will. It clearly says to me that the share price will track down.

Something to think about

Maybe time to sell Lgen. The broker updates are no longer over £3. The esg clap trap appears to be surfacing. Anglo American went down the esg route to the demise of the share price. I’ve also heard Lgen have the provision of tampons in the men’s toilets ! Go figure.

The broker upgrades are a shot across the bows for investors, will the slow reduction in interest bring the business back on target or are we destined for an esg constant drivel of announcements of diversification away from core business at the expense of the share price.

Something to think about

I agree with your thoughts on the sale of Cala, it’s just the wrong time to do it. Why not wait 18 months until interest rates hopefully come down, and the balance sheet with forward earnings will reflect a better picture going forward and you can demand a better price for the business.

It all seems so obvious. I stand by the comment Persimmon will not want to pay top dollar, so keep the business until the situation is better and sell to American private equity. American money came in for Countryside a few years ago, before Countryside were swallowed up by vistry.

Something to think about.

Whilst I agree with your thoughts on buybacks. The Cala sale is being done in a period of downturn in the construction trade. As I mentioned previously Persimmon won’t want to pay top dollar, and seeing as I’ve not seen an announcement on the conclusion of the sale, it has to be assumed that it’s not going well.

Also the question is why sell it ? It must be losing money, after all Lgen is supposedly an investment company for the long term !

Something to think about.