Member Info for fewdollorsmore

Any comments welcome once you read the statement below:-

Oil prices are forecast to surge when markets open on Sunday night, 1 March 2026, driven by a sharp escalation in Middle East hostilities following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Analysts predict that Brent crude could jump by $10 to $20 per barrel at the start of the week, potentially testing the $90 to $100 range if the conflict does not immediately de-escalate or if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

No ships are to pass through the Strait of hermouze and all shipping is now been hit in the area. Oil will rocket now. Fill your cars up ASAP. Escalating very quickly. Iran has just sent out this message.

For all of us who bought a new trench @ 3.5p, will see significant increase in next few weeks. My average of 19p will be reached next week unless a miracle occurs over next few days. Crazy times, and this could go on for a long time. Hotel on fire in Dubai and it's only just started.

Truly an amazing share. I only bought under 10k (@70p)and have sold a few around £10. For all you reitired chaps who had the balls and bought more @ the low price of 70p + back 5 years. Well bloody done, and enjoy your winnings and enjoy the sun on your back today. Not much more to say on this board. Back to my TWL 1.1 million shares @10p.

Thanks for that very useful information. A lot to take in, but sounds more proferssional than the last set of clowns running Tullow. Saved shareholders for a few more years and fingers crossed we find more oil.

Its time to buy not sell. Had the balls to average down when it was 3.5p. Huge gamble, but it will now pay off. Double your money here very quickly at this price. I am holding my 1.1 million years for a few years more. No pain, no gain. No rush. GLA

Oil will rocket soon. But still not sure where we are. 10p is cheap now. Double your money here. GLA

Just waking up, does this mean my 1 .1 million shares could be still worth a few bob?

How can this board be so quiet after an increase like today. Very positive on the share price. I think we could be up again tomorrow.

Great day today for a change. Was tempted to sell a few. Didn't hit the sell button. Only need 9p more to be in profit. Will it drop tomorrow? Normally does. Still cheap at 10.5p.

Just checked, this is old news. Will dig deeper fir today's increase.

From AI just now

You're right to spot that jump—Tullow Oil is having a significant moment today. The 20% spike (reported between 9.5% and 15.8% across sources) isn't random; it's a direct reaction to a major refinancing announcement that addresses the core risk we discussed earlier .

Here is the breakdown of what just happened and what it means for the outlook.

📰 What Just Happened? The Catalyst Explained

The market is rallying because Tullow has taken a concrete step to tackle its $1.2 billion debt maturity.

· The News: Tullow announced it is offering $1.8 billion in new notes** (bonds) and has already secured **$600 million in loan commitments from lenders .

· Why it matters: This is the "successful refinancing" scenario we hypothesized. It provides a pathway to manage the May 2026 bond repayment, removing the immediate existential threat of default.

· The Market's Reaction: Trading volume surged by as much as 201% compared to the average, showing strong investor conviction behind this move .

Oil now up 5%.

Oil Price Outlook (Next Few Weeks)

Oil markets are currently balancing geopolitical fear against physical oversupply.

CNBC

Immediate Forecast: Analysts expect oil to remain volatile but only rise sharply if another closure occurs or talks in Geneva formally collapse.

Price Projections: A total blockade could push prices above $100 per barrel or cause a spike of $15–$20 per barrel.

Supply Cushion: The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a global spare production capacity of 4 million barrels per day through 2026, which may prevent a permanent price shock from minor, temporary disruptions.

Oil price higher we needed. It could save the day. Lots of interesting posts today showing exactly what could happen. Sell the wife and get in if oil jumps to $80+. Waiting game now, going to be a very nervous few weeks here one thinks. GLA

Continued from AI summary. All plain English. It's a risky gamble but pays back big time.

Think of it like this:

· Current reserves: What you can reach from the kitchen

· STOIIP: All the food in the house

· Increased RF: Learning you can reach the top shelf with a stool

Real-World Evidence

Tullow is already proving this works:

· The J-74 well encountered 50 metres of net pay

· Production starting 2026: ~70,000 bopd (up from 59,000 in Q4 2025)

· 5 more wells approved for 2026

🧠 What This Means for Your Decision

Your Situation What This Changes

1M shares at 19p The underlying asset (oil in ground) may be worth more than market thinks

Current price 8.5p Market is ignoring this technical upside

Debt concerns real But more oil = more cash flow to pay debt

Recovery factor upside Could add 25-50% to recoverable reserves

The Chat User's Real Message

They're saying: "Don't just look at today's reserves. Look at what's actually in the ground and what Tullow is doing to get more of it out. The drilling campaign is about increasing the recovery factor, and early results (J-74) are promising."

⚠️ The Catch

Increasing recovery factor:

· Takes time (years, not months)

· Requires capital expenditure (more spending)

· Needs higher oil prices to be economic

· Success isn't guaranteed

But the 2040 licence extension gives Tullow the time they need to make this work.

💭 My View

This chat user is making a genuinely smart observation. They've read the bond documents and connected them to Tullow's current drilling campaign. The J-74 success proves the theory is working in practice.

For your 1M shares at 19p, this matters because:

· If recovery factor increases, the company is worth more

· More oil = more cash flow = better ability to service debt

· Market hasn't priced this in yet (hence 8.5p share price)

It doesn't eliminate the March 1 deadline risk or the May 2026 wall. But it does suggest that if Tullow survives, the upside could be significant.

The user's final point is essentially: "The wins will come from getting more oil out of what we already know is there." And the recent drilling results suggest that's exactly what's happening

This chat board post is actually quite sophisticated. The user is quoting from an official bond document and making a technical argument about why Tullow's long-term value might be higher than the market realizes. Let me explain it in plain English.

📄 What the Bond Document Actually Says

The user quotes the 2026 Bond Offer document saying:

"as at December 31, 2020, Jubilee had a stock tank oil initially in place ("STOIIP") of 1,900 mmbbl and recovery factor of 16%."

Breaking Down the Jargon:

Term Plain English Meaning

STOIIP (1,900 mmbbl) Total oil originally in the ground: 1.9 billion barrels

Recovery Factor (16%) With current technology, they can only get 16% (304 million barrels) out

The Point The other 84% (1.6 billion barrels) is still down there—if they can figure out how to extract it

💡 What the Chat User is Really Saying

The user is making a bullish technical argument:

"the wins will probably come from increasing the RF to a higher number than what is assumed currently in reserves reports today."

Translation:

Current Situation What Could Happen

Recovery Factor: 16% Recovery Factor could increase to 20-25%+

Recoverable oil: 304M barrels Recoverable oil could become 380-475M barrels

Value: Based on current reserves Value could increase by 25-50%+ without finding new fields

🔬 Why This Matters for Tullow

The Science Behind It

Oil fields don't just "run out"—they reach a point where conventional extraction stops working. But with advanced techniques, companies can increase the Recovery Factor:

Technique What It Does

Water flooding Pushes oil toward wells

Gas injection Maintains pressure

Infill drilling (what Tullow is doing now) Drilling extra wells between existing ones

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Chemicals, steam, or CO2 to loosen oil

What's Actually Happening at Jubilee

Recent news confirms exactly what this chat user is talking about:

Development Impact on Recovery

Licence extended to 2040 Time to extract more oil

20 additional wells approved Better drainage of the field

J-74 well successful—50m net pay, >10,000 bopd Confirms remaining oil

2026 drilling programme: 5 more wells Continued development

📊 The Numbers That Matter

Metric Value Source

STOIIP (oil in place) 1.9 billion barrels Bond document

Current recovery factor 16% Bond document

Current recoverable 304 million barrels Calculation

If RF increases to 20% +76 million barrels +25% upside

If RF increases to 25% +171 million barrels +56% upside

Additional recovery from new wells 7.9 MMstb (just from current campaign)

💎 Why This is Bullish for Your Shares

The Hidden Asset

The market values Tullow based on current reserves (what they can extract with today's technology). But if they can increase the Recovery Factor, they unlock billions of barrels of additional oil without exploring new fields.

Think of it like this:

· Current reserves: What you can reach from the kitchen

· STOIIP: All the

Reply from. Detailed analysis using AI.

💡 The Bottom Line

While the $493 million March 1 debt deadline is the immediate focus, the flurry of positive operational and strategic news from Ghana provides a compelling longer-term story. The licence extensions, drilling campaign, and government support all point to a core business that is fundamentally strong and capable of generating significant cash flow.

Successfully navigating the refinancing and the Kenyan tax dispute would allow the market to refocus on this underlying value, which is likely why analysts see upside potential despite the

Yes, there are several developments—mostly centered around Tullow's operations in Ghana—that could positively impact the share price. These range from high-level political meetings to concrete operational progress and significant projected revenue. While the Kenyan dispute and debt deadline are weighing on the stock, these Ghana-related catalysts offer a counterbalance.

🇬🇭 Positive Developments in Ghana

Ghana is Tullow's crown jewel and cash cow. Recent news suggests the company is strengthening its position there significantly.

· High-Level Government Engagement: The newly appointed CEO, Ian Perks, recently met with Ghana's President John Mahama. Discussions covered production optimisation and the resolution of ongoing tax disputes, signaling a collaborative and stable relationship with the government .

· License Extensions & Gas Deal: Tullow has advanced efforts to extend the operating licences for its Jubilee and TEN fields to 2040. A new long-term gas sales agreement has been finalised, providing clarity on pricing. The company estimates the licence extensions could deliver over $900 million in revenue to the state** and enable up to **$2 billion in new investments, including drilling 20 additional wells .

· Active Drilling Campaign: Tullow is in the midst of a major drilling campaign. A second well is expected to start producing by the end of 2025, and the company has approved a programme for five wells in 2026. Operational uptime at both fields has averaged 97% .

· Potential Cost Savings: The new gas sales agreement is expected to deliver nearly $100 million in savings for Ghana between 2026 and 2040 for future gas sales, which should improve the overall economics of the operation .

🌍 Other Potential Positive Catalysts

Beyond Ghana, a few other factors could provide a boost.

· Kenya Project Progress: While the tax dispute is a negative, the underlying project is moving forward. Gulf Energy, which acquired Tullow's interests in Kenya, is targeting a December 2026 start for crude oil production from the South Lokichar project. Successful development by Gulf Energy could eventually lead to future payments or value recognition for Tullow .

· Analyst Price Targets: Despite the low share price, the consensus analyst rating is "Hold," with an average target price of $0.1661 USD. This represents a potential upside of over +41.69% from recent closing prices, suggesting some analysts see value if the company can navigate its near-term challenges .

💡 The Bottom Line

While the $493 million March 1 debt deadline is the immediate focus, the flurry of positive operational and strategic news from Ghana provides a compelling longer-term story. The licence extensions, drilling campaign, and government support all point to a core business that is fundamentally strong and capable of generating significant cash flow.

Successfully navigating the refinancing and the Kenyan tax dispute would allow the market to refocus on this underlying v

Now I have fileterd out the muppets on here, its not a bad place to be, but something is going on guy's. Not much more to say, until update and watch the oil price and Donald Trump. Just look at Bitcoin price.

Typed this text this morning and did not hit the post message button. In a meeting. Up 7% already. Happy days. Be careful, TWL can drop as quick in recent years. Not sure this time. Very cheap.