RE: Long time no hear...19 Nov 2025 15:23
I have no balls keft to buy more at this price. I asked if Friday could bring good news. Here is the answer below. Good luck to anybody who buys before Friday.
Yes, good news is possible, as Tullow Oil has made significant strategic progress throughout 2025 and analysts see potential for a strong recovery. The upcoming trading statement on Friday could positively surprise the market on several fronts.
Potential areas for good news include:
Successful Debt Refinancing: The company's primary strategic priority for 2025 has been to refinance its capital structure. Management has expressed confidence in achieving this goal, and positive progress or completion of the refinancing would remove a major uncertainty for investors and could significantly boost the share price.
Stronger-than-Expected Production: While the 2025 production forecast was lowered earlier in the year due to asset sales and maintenance, the company's core Ghana assets have demonstrated high operational efficiency (97% facility uptime). If the second half of the year saw better-than-expected production from new wells coming online in Q3, this could be a positive point.
Kenya Asset Sale Completion: Tullow signed an agreement for the sale of its Kenya assets in July 2025, with completion and receipt of the first two payments (totaling $80 million) expected during 2025. Confirmation that this has completed on schedule or earlier than expected would be positive news regarding deleveraging efforts.
Positive Reserves Update: Analysis of the 4D seismic data acquired in Q1 2025 is underway to identify future well locations and drive reserves growth. A positive update on the progress of maturing contingent resources into proven (2P) reserves could indicate strong future growth potential.
Improved Free Cash Flow: The company's full-year free cash flow guidance was previously adjusted to $300 million at $65/bbl, including disposal proceeds and expected overdue gas payments from Ghana. Delivering free cash flow at or above this target, especially if supported by higher current oil prices, would be a strong indicator of financial health.
While challenges remain, the company's focus on operational delivery, cost management, and debt reduction provides several avenues for potentially positive news in the upcoming announcement. Investors can review the official trading statement once released on the Tullow Oil website.