Member Info for Fevertreeman

FX is a big issue - the strengthening GBP vs USD in Q1 was a 7% headwind given FY ave 2020 of 1.29 it was at 1.38 in Q1. It is bound to be the same for Q2 and with 60% of revenues & 40pc of costs in USD this is bound to hit the interim results on translation back to GBP, esp as they dont hedge exposure.

I know this business and the management extremely well. They're between a rock and a hard place as long as financial repression remains the main policy tool of central banks. If vol picks up then things will change but with manyt banks having scaled back prop trading desks its a real slog. At one point I thought it was a takeover candidate but I cant see why anyone would buy it

Charts dont look great ; this is heading back down to c175-180 imho, at that point it may be worth a nibble as the yield will look a bit more interesting.

tullett were sstiffed by michael Spencer. Terry Smith would not have bought the v-broing business but sadly the ex ceo was on an ego trip and the result is that spencer became a billionaire because free of the liabilities of ICAP voicebroking he was able to sell on NEX ...genius trade

1. Core voice broking business is in terminal decline
2. Low vol environment and interest rate suppression by central banks make it very difficult make money
3. ICAP voice broking business came with a lot of baggage as Libor, etc have shown which takes up a lot of management time.
4. Liquidnet was supposed to solve the issue of declining voice broking revenues but consensus is that they overpaid for it
5. Institutional investment case for holding this business is thin ; definitely not a growth business and dividend is too skinny to attract income seekers when there are better yielders out there. So basically a trading stock.....

On the positive side:
1. Board and senior management team is much stronger than previous team
2. Analytics business is attractive with high margins but still a small part of equation
3. Energy business is world class with PVM the star turn
4. Change of regulatory domicile reduced the amount of regulatory capital tied up doing nothing so in theory that could be put to economic use in the business
5. If vol returns and central bans shift their stance on QE and the yield curve starts to steepen this could do well (as individually the 2 did in 2008)

What exactly are we on the cusp of achieving...I have lost the thread with PL so please tell me, what we should be holding on for?

So Energy is on a rip with WTI @ $72 (highest since Oct 2018); Brent @$74 (highest since Apr 2019), TTF gas @$10 per mBtu (highest seasonal since 2008) and LNG JKM @ $12 per mBtu (highest seasonal since 2014).....

And what of President? Well, we fall 4% because the market has lost total interest and faith in Levine...

The case for the prosecution is against HAA not the underlying assets. If he goes, as he should, then maybe this becomes investable. As long as he is still in situ, I fear further disappointment. Accusing me of undermining holders' confidence is rather rich, given that it is HAA's behaviour & actions over an extended period of time that is responsible for any undermining of confidence. The man is a 'good faith' free zone.

I blame the typing...

The prosecution case against HAA1. Relationship with truth - at every turn he has obfuscated and used weasel words- EG yellow card latest blatant example2. Incorrigible - smash n grab of 500k for doing the job he is well paid for & has singularly failed to deliver 3. Spinmeister - the old name change trick tells you how desperate he is to ramp the story5. Project management - does anyone seriously believe mines will deliver product on time given his dreadful t/record6. Venality/incompetence: in a world awash with cash he hasnt raised a cent he promised . Beneath contempt for him and CFO to link funding to cash bonus.

Enjoyed reading this piece. Only way that HAA could possibly manage to get interest from the FT stable was on account of his smash n grab venality..kinda sums him up.

only time...and god knows Harry is a master at that...will tell. :)

Thanks for pointing out that it closed at 1.9p not 1...slip of keyboard....So I presume from your remarks that you are entirely comfortable with the direction of travel of HMS Levene?, that you feel that the governance is tip-top, and having 2bn shares sloshing around doesnt concern you? Based on the share price analysis you'd be hard -pressed to find anyone who has made a profit (except PL of course) investing in this. Are you in profit?

PL is accomplishing on behalf of teh owners of the company i.e. us.....I have updated it for the Paraguay announcement, and the facts comprehensively prove that PL has been an utter disaster for shareholders on any time period you care to mention.

Share Price 10 Years Ago (10 June 2011) closing price 23.75p
Share Price 5 Years Ago (10 June 2016) closing price 7.38p
Share price 3 years Ago (11 June 2018) closing price 9.55p
Share Price 1 year Ago (11 June 2020) closing price 1.70p
Share Price 6 months Ago (11 Jan 2021) closing price 1.00p
Share Price 3 months Ago (11 Mar 2021) closing price 2.10p
Share Price 1 month Ago (11 May 2021) closing price 2.10p
Share Price Paraguay Farm Out: (8 June 2021) opens at: 2.40p closing price 2.15p
Share Price today (11 June 2021) closing price 2.10p

R&A delayed, adding to the market's suspicions about PL

Added to we have Napoleon as the CEO, who gets through professional advisers at a rate of knots, makes sure any deal he does has a sweetener on the side for his own private family companies, and has managed to totally f+++ up the market mechanism by issuing over 2bn shares (ffs!) which has resulted in a total annihilation of the share price.

And the poker tell for me was HAA's unseemly scramble to line his pockets with hard cash....I think he knows his game may be up, and that he was manouevring to pad out his pension pot with the first tranche of £500k. It is going to be interesting what happens here , but I feel that HAA will not be smelling of roses once the terms of any funding comes to light

RNS May 17..."Neither KEFI nor its subsidiaries, KEFI Minerals (Ethiopia) Limited and Tulu Kapi Gold Mines Share Company ("TKGM"), nor any of their associate companies, are aware of any breach of any licence conditions and have not received any such warning letter nor had notice of such an intended letter flagged to them formally or informally. The Directors of KEFI believe they have an especially close working relationship with the Ethiopian Government, which is a shareholder in TKGM at both the Federal and Oromia Regional levels..."

Then we had the clarification that they had had a warning letter. Strikes me from this incident that HAA seems somewhat off the pace re. EG and reading the temperature on the ground.

I tend to agree....

I know:) I was just extrapolating :))) Can't say that watching the shenanigans isn't fun here.