Member Info for Fevertreeman

So the missing bit of the equation? They can't ramp up at Tyldesley because they haven't been able to sign sufficient feedstock deals to ensure they can deliver. Interestingly, there is absolutely sod-all in the announcement about securing reliable, consistent UK feedstock supply -Inserma just does the shredding - which by omission I think is the explanation. If so that explains a lot - Very very naughty of our dymnamic duo to try and play a shell game with their investors....distract us with acquisition, start up of Germany, but make no mentin that they cant get signed deals for feedstock...hmmmm A

ny thoughts??

My reading exactly......something is not quite right, and I cant put my finger on it

Then again neither you nor I knew there was a restriction on Tyldsley.....I take your points. I have a decent sized holding here. But athe moment I'm incliined to top slice into any strength because I fear that the timetables are going to slip, esp SPAC

It's not the " what else are they doing for the next 8 months". No It's the cumulative impression they give that they are being very economical with the truth. It's the consistent lily-gilding that is now catching up with them.

If news is not forthcoming on the German acquisition soon, it looks to me that there could be a case to be made that they misled investors. I've done more M&A listed deals that I can care to remember and that USe of Proceeds was highly unusual in its specificity - it didnt not say £4.3m for "general corporate purposes that may/may not include considering acquisitions of complementary businesses, technologies etc" I'd have been fine with that - but this was specific, & you never in my experience put that in to any cash raising prospectus or raise without knowing the deal is happening. So watch this space!

Agreed....we now know that Batman & Robin have been very economical with the truth re. production timelines (UoB restrictions etc) and now its confirmed.. So wtf are they doing for the next 8 months of this year! Just doesn't look good does it. Meantime, we have this phantom acquisition tehy cynically (IMV) used as justification for a deeply discounted raise, that no one expected - where is teh update on this? Andf then finally we have the prospect that SPAC may slip with just 8 weeks left of Q2 , meaning unlikely imv till Q4 given Q3 is summer hols. Will and Alex really havent been wholly straight with investors, and patience may start to fray if they continue to stward the company in this way. One other thing to watch out for is whether Nick Miles 3 month contract gets rolled over - if it doesnt it effectively tells me they were hired as gunslingers for the raise but in all likelihood the newsflow is being pushed further and further out so no need for them at present.

Other point driving this down is the increase in short positions in teh last week...still not huge at 3.5%, but enough to undermine the sp

This is what happens when you put someone totally unqualified with virtually no real-life experience in charge of the economy who seems to think that an economy's route to growth is by taxing the private sector to death whilst inflating the non-productive public sector. Reeves is hands down worst Chancellor since Anthony Barber. And then there's Martyn Coffey the ex CEO who massively overpaid for Marley ( and was challenged at the time) 4 years ago, and the co has been living with the consequences + macro + Reeves ever since. GIven the whole shooting match is now worth just £333m c60% less than they paid for Marley, at some point this is entering bid territory.

Ha! We live in hope that our schlerotic government will actually back this amazing tech with proper £

Words and parsnips spring to mind from our socialist Secretary of State for Business and Trade.

I agree; trouble is MKA aren't in charge of the timetable, they're reliant on Cohen , the bureaucrats at SEC & Nasdaq (and presumably AIM & TXC).

All reasonable points. Some degree of caution around the German acquisition is merited - my eyebrows were raised when the equity raise talked about "a potential acquisition in Germany". Now, no doubt Dawes & Lemon were very bullish: a great opportunity in Germany, we cant miss it , we're almost there, hey need to see we have the cash...i.e. we cant persuade them to do an all share deal, so its either all cash or a mixture. My guess is the lawyers/SP Angel/Peel Hunt insisted on "potential" to cover their arses. The fact that we're almost 3 weeks on from closing and no news is a concern. If it drags on with no news, It will not be a good look because it'll either mean they jumped the gun, and discussions were at a very early stage OR they cant agree a price with the acquiree.

Have fingers and toes crossed that the SPAC is imminent i.e. before end June, but given the delays (not their fault) there must be a a real chance that the timetable slips further into Q3/4. If they get this away it hugely derisks MKA as an investment and I think we will see the elusive 100p but curently Mr Marjket doesnt think its happening any time soon

whether its centrica, ssp, bp, north sea operators, ukw, or the other renewables, miliband & reeves are continuing to prove their utter inability to manage the economy & energy sector competently. combine the zealotry of milliband and the woeful inadequacy of our socialist chanellor and we have the perfect ****tail for disaster.

as ukw pointed out last year with the rpi-cpi bolt out of the blue, labour's frequent policy shifts, mean investors can’t model long‑term returns with any confidence when the rules may change mid‑project. utterly bonkers, including the ridiculous 2030 moonshot target for clean energy, which as others point out will require 2x onshore wind, 4x off shore, 3x solar. meantime, windfall taxes on oilco and no new licenses in north sea,. miliband can't meet the targets by constantly moving goalposts and hammering the sector, cheekily blaming them for the mess we're in.

energy infrastructure investors et al can handle risk. what they can’t handle is not knowing the rules of the game.

yup! the utter incompetence of reeves and starmer is simply staggering for a party that had so long to prep for office. what utter *******s they talked about building 1.5m homes over this parliament. allvery well trying to reform the schelrotic planning systsm but where are the houses? 300,000 pa to hit target but no incentive for the sector to meet demand. london has a target of 88,000 pa but last year only 20,000 got planning consent. marshalls will recover as its a core supplier & dominates its area, but there must a big danger that pe or s/o else takes it over before then

Zeus has finally (a week on from results) published its note with forecasts just one year out. After 2 years of 25% revenue growth, and acknowledging that the growth prospects are strong, Zeus forecasts £15.7m revs for 2026 i.e. + 5.5%, but provides no forecast for 2027. This is not an analysis at any level. Utterly hopeless; the Zeus note not worth the paper it's printed on.

1. No Proper Analysis of Group Results - just a regurgitation of the FY Results , suggesting he hasnt even bothered to talk with the Company or alternatively they dont think its worth talknig with Zeus. Based on the total lack of IR/PR from the Board, both are possible.

2. 2026 current year forecast but no Year 2 Forecast (actually its really Year 1 as we're 4 months into 2026). Forecast is for 5.5% revenue growth, which looks like (1) A massive slowdown in orders after 2 years of 25% growth, which is very troubling, & runs counter to the growth narrative which in turn suggests (1) He's utterly clueless and couldnt care less, and this is not analysis worthy of the name or (2) He's just made it up. I would suggest all the above, as there is no attempt to explain the figures, or suggest some bigger picture thinking.

2. Taking his figs, with 2026 costs broadly flat, any margin improvement is totally dependent on revenue growth and margin mix improving, rather than cost reductions. Any analyst worth his salt would look at the ~50 % consistent overhead that this group runs and conclude that its an issue as it absorbs all the gross profit. At least talk about the issue ! Zeus pencilled in £15.7m revs which produces Gross Profits of £7.7m yet Operating Costs of £7.9m ~50% 0f revenues, barely down from 2025's Operating Costs of £7.9m ( 53% of total Revenue) driven by Affini.

Track back to 2021 or 2022, pre-Affini and operating costs are consistently ~40-50%. Yes, the operational gearing is potentially fantastic if the business starts throwing off big contracts and revenues start to motor across the board, but that cost base remains a huge issue. Its high time that the Board addressed this, or at least explained what they are doing to reduce overheads.

Agreed but they need to do something about the cost base! Revs up 25% but so was Overheads!!!

There are a number of us who are long term holders. The business has suffered in recent years from the breakdown in historically its core competencies: Rail with complete drying up of new orders which has affected the entire supply chain, and Defence where as we can see the Forces have been starved of investment. The shining light in this gloom has been QRO which has consistently produced great results with strong uptake for its range of ANPR cameras. Up to 2024 it was effectively the only part of the business growing. Fortunately the Group was carrying no debt and had cash holdings of c£1m+. The Abdullahs continued to look for bolt-one but couldn’t find anything that fitted the bill/price. Share price reflected very poor comms from the firm, and its micro cap status.

The start of the pick up comes with Affini but as you’ll see it cost them a lot in fees as there was an issue around how the deal was put together. Didn’t reflect well on the advisers or the board but Affini itself looked a good fit: recurring income, strong relationships, decent management, and adjacent markets. 2025 is the pivot with a series of excellent big contract wins in what was the moribund Defence segment with blue chip customer base; Rail showed some signs of life but still no real concerted pull thro due to the mess successive Govts have created & now Labour’s GB Rail plan that has totally frozen investment. QRO’s fogs which had driven business strongly were off the pace in’25 which was disappointing but Co. cited purchase delays as reason. Somewhat belatedly IMO they finally realised there was export potential with this finally producing results current year.

So this is a group with great businesses that are strongly placed in their segments and boast real and deep expertise. Ad the prospects (till Iran pitched up) are looking brighter than they have been in years. Sum of the Parts IMO is worth way more than current market cap.

Now the cautions:

1. Micro cap so little institutional interest and lack of liquidity in shares. Free float isn’t huge because of Abdullahs holdings mean share price is very volatile. And frankly the website is a disgrace, the Board does little to market the Co to investors, and seem content to let it remain so

2. The Financials - even with an excellent set of results this year there are some things to flag. T’over up 25% due to fill year of Affini but Overheads jumped 25% as well , so God knows what’s happening. R&D is another area of concern for me as fig in recent years has been broadly static

3. Future growth - they are heavily reliant on lumpy orders in their biggest segments which tbf they have no control over, so QRO and Affini have helped leaven the lumpiness. And importantly 50pc recurring income from servicing etc is helping but they need much stronger top line growth and much more consistent growth. À big transformational deal IMO is what’s needed! That requires a bigger balance sheet.

Jan to end March 2025 - Wind production amounted to 10GW ; scroll forward to same time period for this year and the fig is 13.5GW...so that bodes well for us, and the sp is finally starting to reflect this and recognition that the discount is too high, and that inflation is going higher so CPI-link will be benefical

Indeed I do but its tempered by the fact that the mining/deal-making skills of Lemon & Dawes that have got us here, are not teh managerial skill sets needed to grow a world-class recycling/manufacturing business, and I suspect they know that. I'd be thrilled if we hit Ian Hannam's valuation, but I haven't seen the research so no idea how they get to that fig, but it seems very punchy indeed with the management bench we currently have

Assuming Cohen can get the SPAC away at a reasonable valuation ( not a slam dunk by any means, given the Capex that will need to be spent on the mine and Pulawy), then the US offers Lemon & Dawes the best route to exit. Talaxis with its shareholding is rarely mentioned in discussions around strategy but they will clearly have their own views about how to best monetise the recycling tech etc...the £12m in the bank has given Dawes & Lemon breathing space and strengthened their hand re. Cotec in my opinion, but I've no idea how this actually plays out going forward given the complexity of the holdings and the moving parts involved. All I know is I was delighted to exit in the 50s, bank a decent profit, & buy back c35p

RNS on the grants is welcome, but as Esduk quite rightly points out, its small beer considering the supposed ambition of HMG in this space, and given how much £ is wasted elsewhere in non-productive parts of the economy. Meantime as he also rightly points out the shine has come off our wunderkind with a deeply discuonted raise that no one bar a few saw coming badly communicated by the team, which in turn has turned spotlight on how much actual progress has been made and where they are on timelines i.e not where we expected to be.... so in many ways I'm glad they managed to get £12m in the bank given the above