RE: Chinese rare earths14 Oct 2025 13:01
Hi there! This is, by the way, a great forum. You asked about current valuation, and I chuckled: as it remined me of Chuck Prince's comment back in 2007: ":As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance," conexct being lots of leverage at the banks, and the fear that they couldnt step off the dance floor...and then we know what happened!
I have no idea what the valuation should be: we have no revenues, no earnings, no dividend , physical assets in a yet to be producing mine in Malawi :) ; and the Hypromag IP and assets. We havent mined anything, we havent produced tonnage quanties from Tyldesley, so we dont know yet if scale up will work and can be replicated without issue ( people always underestimate time and issues involved in scale up btw). Meantime whilst we have grant-backing from UK , EU and more recently matched reimbursable $4.5m for Songwe from US to support FEED with more behind it possibly. No DoD stake; No floor on price of neo etc.....IN truth, its impossible to value this blue-sky opportunity, so all the stuff about going to the moon is based on what the analogues have done in the US. Myles fair-do's is gamely trying to overlay some spreadsheet analysis in an attempt to come up with an NPV and share price....all based on "what ifs"...IF MP is valued at that , we surely should be valued at this,; IF DoD is supporting US firms, surely we will get some big support, IF Songwe is much further down track than analogues in US, we should have same valution. All of this ignores of course the rampant retail speculation in the US, where huge sums are being wagered daily on next big thing, look at AI, or crypto....bubbles everywhere there...actually the canaries in the coalfield are there already if one looks....the amount of Boardroom sales in the US, gold's performance, the plunge in Crypto (effectively pass the parcel - not backed by governments), Bailey's comments etc etc.....
So if I were Will & Alex I would be straining every sinew to get Cohen & Co out the gate as quick as poss to get a valuation on Songwe, which will help get US investors to look at us, provide some underpinning for us, pay for Songwe's development , and also serve as a ready-made source of cash if thats required to fund recycling business. .The good news is that neither of them are ingenues; they worked in the markets, they know how they work, and to date they have not put a foot wrong, as we havent all been diluted to oblivion. And they have had an enormous slice of luck with Trump's moves and China's belligerence, that means that Xmas has come early....I intend to gradually take chips off the table, but keep
Fundamentally, I absolutely buy into the fantastic story about the development of the sector ex China, the need for security of supply & the realisation that hi-tech emerging industries are heavily reliant on these compounds. So this is an unfolding, multiyear shift, and if one has the stomach and patience to stick with it fortune