Valuation issues30 Aug 2025 10:16
Despite Trump’s frenzied activity around trying to jumpstart Rare Earth industrial strategy
& kibosh the Chinese, care needs to be taken with comparing US efforts to a moonshot. Given China controls 90pc processing & 50pc of mining. U.S. has committed to $US7bn thru to 2029 but it’s going to be a multi year effort, that requires a joined up legislative approach, sustained Federal and commercial funding beyond the US$7bn.
Currently MP is the only rare earth mine of scale and only just started pilot production of NdFeB…in this context Mka has the chance to also become a strategic partner for western governments. We’ve seen that in the share price explosion as retail bets huge on Will/Julian/Uni Birmingham and team’s ability to execute. Given low institutional ownership, no revenues, fragile balance sheet with little cash and only pilot production, a huge amount of growth is already priced into the share prices.I am not arguing that the underlying investment case is wrong , but rather that we should not lose sight of the fundamentals. This is a blazing hot sector but if US markets turn turtle in the autumn then we could struggle to get a Nasdaq listing away, and as currently that underpins imo a significant part of the valuation, the share price could well come to earth with a bump! I will be taking my profits progressively off the table over the coming months as I fear that after an unbelievable run of good news, we face more severe challenges and likely disappointment