Member Info for Fevertreeman

Have been very impressed with how the management team have navigated last 24 months but esp the last 9. Worse case for 2021 is another extended period where no new deals gets signed and sp just treads water ; best case is that we see a slew of rns announcements that underline the momentum within the business and that that these translate into quality revs and earnings. One lingering concern I have is their ability to scale up the business in terms of management processes, etc to cope with ongoing demand from the OEMs. The danger for a business of this size is over-trading and no0t having the right management team, processes etc in place.

The Board is responsible for significant share price destruction since September and yet they still want us to believe there is a future for the company....if so, where are the BOD share purchases as expression of positive support. The answer is nowhere. If having ticked off the list of positives as Maris and the Chair have done, they aren't prepared to back it now that the price sensitive info is out, why should they be believed.

So CEO "....we continue to believe there is significant value in Lancaster and our broader West of Shetland portfolio, and we remain focused on delivering that value for the benefit of our stakeholders....." Given yet another semi car crash of an RNS , any competent management team stating the above would be in the market buying shares and I dont mean the token 5K each. Frankly if the BOD is not aligned with shareholders (and bondholders) why the hell should anyone have any confidence in comments above. After 25 years of advising boards of PLCs , the least I would expect is for teh management team to put their monies where their mouth is. If they don't then this is goodnight Vienna. Btw to compare this to Sirius as others have done is utter madness. Hur unlike Sirius is actually cashflow positive, with 12k per day production, has proven reserves, substantial tax losses, big acreage and an improving oil macro picture ...

In terms of takeover plays, fascinating to see what's happened at the AA:

1) Back into hands of private equity who have cash to burn
2) Dislocation is share prices is starting to fee thro to lowball offers, based on the formula of whats offered is x% higher than prevailing price over prior x months etc: AA had usual spiel that proposed price is 40% higher than its closing share price on 3 Aug, the day before the offer period started, and 50% more than its average share price over the month before that date.....
3) Expect more of this as decent businesses get snapped up.....not sure if HUR fits the profile but .....

Technical update ?

this is poised for a breakout.

1. The sp action is no surprise. This is a market makers/ punter's perfect stock: penny sp, loads of loose stock about, able to manipulate the spread, lots of day traders.
2. The kitchen sinking by the new management has damaged confidence and until we see concrete plans and positive news from the new CEO, I for one am not tempted to add to my sp pile which is underwater (no pun intended)
3. New management team havent backed themselves with decent sp purchase - that hardly smacks of confidence
4. Trying to bottom the valuation I know from first experience is a mug's game as markets are sentiment driven: for the past 4/5 years O&G has been a losing bet. In terms of M&A , again it is worth what a buyer will pay for it. it may be 6p , 9p , 12p or 4p

Ha! Saga will recover after the botched fund-raising, with de Haan on board. Am underwater but thankfully I avoided taking up my rights, and bought cheaper in the market. Time horizon is 2 years

I was going invest in the newco, but I am concerned about the volume of settlement agreements that involve Integumen: consultants seemingly having to pursue them for every cent. I sat on the exco of a large listed plc and this sort of thing used to raise flags esp around business ethics and management style. My unease is compounded by the cosy nature of the M&A deal and the fact that there is crossover on the boards. 30 years of financial and corporate deals tells me that M&A deals rarely produce the promised goods, and this one concerns me. For that reason dragons reluctantly I am staying on sidelines

I would demanding a rebate from the investment bankers. Just bonkers, by consolidating the share price now they have given free rein to the market to sell the arse off the stock. Euan Sutherland what were you thinking !

Did the SID ever raise any objections? She seems yet another serial accumulator of NED roles: Chair of Founders Intelligence Limited , Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Remuneration Committee at Burberry Group plc, Deputy Chair of the National Trust and Trustee of Sir John Soane’s Museum.....surprised she has the time for this lot given her 'workload' with other organisations in covid crisis...retail, museums, outdoor attractions!!!!

So could the investment banking advisers please identify themselves as the brains behind the 15:1 consolidation which is driving the price even lower. You couldn't make this up, you really couldn't. Instead of shoring up the 'optics' of Saga with a more heavyweight share price, all this has done has provided another mechanism for the sp to be driven lower from a higher headline share price, which a lot of folk wont understand .

Words fail me: in old money this is now at 9.5p. Talk about smoke and mirrors, the consolidation is a terrific wheeze to create illusion that this is a stable business with a grown up share price...and yet, we continue to go into reverse! I wonder which of the bloody advisers came up with 15:1. This will take years to recover

1. Kitchen sink of a reserve downgrade and shattering of Trice aura
2. Looming bond repayment
3. PoO & shift from hydrocarbons by investors (look at BP and Shell sps)
4. Untested new management
However, CA are a smart bunch and see this at 2/3p as excellent risk reward ; it has producing well and decent acreage; and it could yet spring a surprise on drilling etc.....I think forgetting about this is the best course of action, as it is currently priced to go bust and I dont see that heppening

The old adage applies here...a long term investment is a short term one gone wrong!

Like most I agree that this is way undervalued but would say that would I given my ave is far higher than sp, and that was before we found the 'true' reserves picture, no wonder Dr T had to go. Downside is of course zero but with cash in the bank, production, some hope that the write-downs have been overdone, then we have hope. As always with AIM it is a lottery; what I want to see is more faith from the board whose purchases of stock have been frankly laughable given the supposedly upbeat message from the chairwoman. So it could double it could treble and it could go to zero, but my betting is that we are going to slowly climb out of the pit....

This is an interesting point at which to invest because:
1. Arrival on register of French PE group with strong leisure credentials & Serge buying consistently. |Clearly both think this is way undervalued
2. Reopening slowly of their markets; management is using COVID/lack of footfall at many sites to rapidly restructure its photobooth estate. Some big missteps here in recent years esp in the UK but using the time to descale and improve the estate will flow through in due course to profits and eps. Laundry continues to perform well and KIs is getting into its stride.
3. For a business that has historically generated huge cashflow the last 12 months have been an aberration. I fully expect this to move back into gear in due course. The million dollar question is whether the PE group are supportive of Serge efforts to rejig the business within the public markets or supportive of him taking the business private or ultimately make an offer themselves. In any event his recent buying spree means he holds the trump card with that huge stake.

The message is to investors that the stock market/analysts consistently fail to value businesses in a way their own industrial competitors or private equity do who know about running companies. Time and time again this happens: this is what I posted before all hell broke lose: I feel quite pleased obviously

This is option money at this priceFri 14:36
I don't buy the doom n gloom on this at all. The insurance side is a very decent operation, with a strong brand and a loyal customer base. The cruising business is of course a cluster**** and the balance sheet has too much leverage. Not much they can do about the former at present but the newish CEO is at least trying to offload peripheral businesses to get debt down.

This business has £800m of revenues and delivered underlying PBT 2019/20 of £110m. Clearly PBT this year is gonna be hit but the business isnt a basket case which the sp suggests. Short interest in back to zero. They are tackling the debt with £30m knocked off in last F/Y & ytd another £35m coming in.
Sutherland seems to have found c15m cost savings; chopped the divi and renegotiated their covenants, so the business isnt short of liquidity. And remember C-19 hasnt affected the cash engine of the business the insurance side which made an O/p of c£130m last year, more than offsetting the loss in holiday segment. And one assumes they have taken advantage of furlough scheme which will save them a decent amount in staff costs. This isnt going to turn round quickly but the current sp is suggesting this business is almost bust which it isnt.

£150m for a business that made £100m last year in OP....crazy

I don't buy the doom n gloom on this at all. The insurance side is a very decent operation, with a strong brand and a loyal customer base. The cruising business is of course a cluster**** and the balance sheet has too much leverage. Not much they can do about the former at present but the newish CEO is at least trying to offload peripheral businesses to get debt down.

This business has £800m of revenues and delivered underlying PBT 2019/20 of £110m. Clearly PBT this year is gonna be hit but the business isnt a basket case which the sp suggests. Short interest in back to zero. They are tackling the debt with £30m knocked off in last F/Y & ytd another £35m coming in.
Sutherland seems to have found c15m cost savings; chopped the divi and renegotiated their covenants, so the business isnt short of liquidity. And remember C-19 hasnt affected the cash engine of the business the insurance side which made an O/p of c£130m last year, more than offsetting the loss in holiday segment. And one assumes they have taken advantage of furlough scheme which will save them a decent amount in staff costs. This isnt going to turn round quickly but the current sp is suggesting this business is almost bust which it isnt.

I have no idea about the technical report contents nor what the real reserve situation is nor the OWC position but....Why would a seasoned exec with proper O&G experience who will no doubt have come across Dr T etc on the circuit and be aware of the story actually sign on the dotted line as CEO if he thought this was a basket case?

No one wants their professional reputation as a serious CEO vaporised by joining a company that is on the verge of going bust. So , again the fact that he has jumped onboard gives me some crumb of comfort that this is not the doomsday scenario the sp indicates and that he sees considerable potential to turn this ship around.