Member Info for Feeks

Yes thanks nightyard - the article explains why the UK is in
much bigger trouble compared to Germany. 1,000 -v- 20,000 per day - so we would not be able to cope with a R value rising in the same way. In 2-4 weeks we will start to see that happen - just take a look at beaches, parks and stores.

Hi esduk. Let's hope you have a good reason to stay up when the news comes (later today?).

Yes I believe Mike's Tema figures are also sensible and maybe even pessimistic on overall cargo volumes - will be personally disappointed if we do not get up over 1.25m this year. 1.5m ought to be achievable. 2m without Covid (2020). By 2022 cargo volumes should be well over 2m. They could be almost double that number (3.7m TEU capacity). So, it remains my own view that Tema is the most important thing of all to this business right now. Even if one reduces the $ price per TEU and forward PE we are seeing decent value at current SP which ought to provide for a good buying opportunity if it dips from here. I dont think YA / RA sales ought to weigh heavily on a 5 yr rolling Tema contract when there is so much Tema growth locked in. It is just a short term nuisance, which is obviously why DHC is still hanging around spouting nonsense.

Everyone:
Do NOT give DHC a chance to buy your shares cheaply !!!

But overall there is a lot of educated guesswork involved at this stage. Covid 19 sales will hopefully be high enough to rescue us from the short term pain of Freetown being shut and my view is has been doing that so far - and also that cargo freight growth at Tema will also help cover this gap looking forward. Still just 387 cases in the country as a whole (Sierra Leonne) so that brings hope there will be a resumption of flights in 2020.

So I see covid-19 sales mainly as a short term balance for SL - not forgetting that we have (so far) lost only ONE full month of passengers from the airport business and it was a record quarter before that (Q1).

Anyhow, good luck. We can all see the potential value it is just a case of being objective about the short term drag of finance and Covid. In fact those are the same reasons DHC sees value in INTU and CINE. Shame he cannot admit that.

I've modelled the R value on DHC and his kids. Base assumption is 3 off-spring at present, with a future reproductive multiplier of 2.5 *. I estimate that the world will be overrun with woolly-headed numbties by the year 3000. Ergo: we need to keep them all in lockdown for the good of the human race.
* I have used a high 2.5 multiplier because I imagine that DHC's off-spring will be self-assured, extremely virile and more particularly, wealthy beyond belief to sustain a large household

https://www.newsweek.com/germany-sees-new-coronavirus-cases-nearly-triple-infection-rate-rises-after-lockdown-restrictions-1503512

For Mr Spoon to digest on INTU and CINE
imo

https://www.newsweek.com/germany-sees-new-coronavirus-cases-nearly-triple-infection-rate-rises-after-lockdown-restrictions-1503512

For Mr Spoon to digest.

https://www.newsweek.com/germany-sees-new-coronavirus-cases-nearly-triple-infection-rate-rises-after-lockdown-restrictions-1503512

For Mr Spoon to digest.
imo

I have been rather too busy these past 3 days to read up on the board, but will look forward to doing that later. I imagine it will be full of turnip-like comments from DHC.

I am also looking forward to what will inevitably be an interesting update tomorrow. I am not so much looking forward to all the perpetual whinging we will get whatever the rns content - theirs will be a wholly skewed version of reality: "Fowler this, Fowler that, blah blah blah". It is wholly inevitable, however I will be reading the rns fairly and objectively when it comes.

https://container-mag.com/2020/05/12/first-phase-of-tema-port-expansion-completed-ahead-of-schedule/

"Since the go-live of Terminal 3 in July 2019, there has been a steady increase in productivity and the flow of container traffic."

Imo

@happyhippostew 11:31 yesterday. What a lovely post! Thank you, and to the other mames you mention. 9 years! It's like when Ben Gunn was offered a bit of cheese in Treasure Island. I am off out to remain a day behind reading through all these posts, and possibly 2 behind before the day is out. All imo

DHC -

Where do you see the share price going if the now "Expected" date is not met?

Big difference between expected and confirmed dates.

Just imo

yrabsmurruc, yes. They are approx. half way down their selling already. And there is value at these levels - there will be buyers if it ever goes sub 10p again. I would be a buyer at under 10p for sure. I was already and I am fully loaded now.

It is really really hard not to goad this chump. It has been my main source of entertainment during lockdown. Aiming will understand this too.

It's a conditonal plan! Boris absilutely did not say that cinemas willl be able to open in July or anything of the sort. For that to happen everything has to go right and the science has to be in favour of it and indeed there is much that can and probably will go wrong. Just look at Germany or China where the virus has resurfaced after restrictions were eased. The 1st release will spike the R, that's how the virus works. Only muppets will buy this news.

During his address to the nation on Sunday, Mr Johnson said: "At the earliest by July - and subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice; if and only if the numbers support it, we will hope to re-open at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places, provided they are safe and enforce social distancing."

The lockdown measures would only be eased if the rate of transmission in the community remained low.

Mr Johnson warned that the government would 'put on the brakes' if there were further outbreaks of coronavirus in the future.

"And I must stress again that all of this is conditional, it all depends on a series of big Ifs", he said.

"It depends on all of us – the entire country – to follow the advice, to observe social distancing, and to keep that R down.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/hospitality-venues-like-pubs-cafes-18229995

Boris has not said cinemas will be opening in July and did not even hint at that prospect. Odds are against it right now.

The Govt will be led by the science and it is clear now that outdoor venues are far less likely to cause the infection to spread than indoor venues. There is no case for people sitting around in closed spaces like cinemas. This is why cinemas will be back of the queue. And it is a conditional plan - the timeframe is highly likely to shift back as R values increase as they surely will. The market wont be fooled.

Yes I saw that too

You are deluded DHC but keep talking it up and see how the market reacts! But very clearly cinemas will be relatively lowdown in the pecking order - they dont even get a mention - and my guess is they will be low down the hopsitality sector list. And when the R rate rises in June ..... the Huly date will only get shoved back.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518
- Mr Johnson says the government "hopes" to reopen "at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places" in England but this will happen later than for shops and schools - by July at the earliest

-This will also depend on scientific advice and the possibility of keeping to social distancing measures

Draft government guidance previously seen by BBC News had said bar areas, seated areas in restaurants and cafes must remain closed even as the economy is opened up - and venues should serve takeaways only

I very much doubt he will come up with anything very much at all - certainly nothing so detailed in what will be a very short briefing. It is mainly going to be "lockdown as usual" in my view.

Personally, I would be very surprised if we are not running at > 1.5m by Q4. I take my cues on that from Mohammed Samara CEO of MPS. Covid 19 is not a reason to believe it will be less. There are various press articles demonstrating how fast it is getting cargoes though the new port with all the new systems in place. Like you, I place my emphasis on Tema. The Covid sales are a material factor, and a welcome surprise which has just shone a light on the real value. It's a good investment. Saudi news would send things into orbit. Like you, it is not part of my thinking, but then nor was Tema until the day it was actually announced. This is where the PE adjustment will come into play. Newbies will maybe not realise we had actually bagged two contracts in Iran just before the Tema win. The pace has sharpened.

I found DHC and s/he doesnt like it. So you can thank me for all the endless entertainment. I sincerely wonder would I have got bored myself and sold up by now if it wasnt for DHC......? It's actually a good question.

You are off the pace, and laughably so. Bet you wish you had actually bought those 6's and not sold your imaginary 6's.