Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dont get me wrong Marc ... if the finances and operations were in a lot better state, then CC might well be looking at the energy side a bit .. but he is absolutely spot on that this is the cycle bottom and a focus on core is essential.
Just think ... a Vanadium price of $40 and will be making over $50m+ in profit ... wonder how much of that might end up as a dividend !
It is the likes of Pdub with his petter holier than though put downs of any alternate view that have wrecked any real discord and discussion. Several people raised significant concerns and instead of exploring that were shot down
Exactly BobbyAxe .....
We were all taken in and having a 'vision' is not the same as being able to execute it. The luck that Vanadium spiked probably pushed this date back but also enabled the very high risk investments into Energy side. The world as it turned out, was just not ready for that (changing now).
No shame in that at all and pretty much most folk backed it
What I cannot forgive is the clear lies and misleading on operational state, stability, maintenance etc and instead of recognising FM did not have the competence to navigate that from his ivory tower, the BOD and several (like you pdub) kept spouting the 'In Fortune We Trust' mantra
He spotted a gap in the market
He spotted an asset that could build into it
He made some great early deals (I think people thought he was nuts and sold him the bits)
He took a high stakes gamble on world energy timing and rode the Vandium Spike
But he failed miserably to recognised the unravel and do something positive about that
So forgive me Pdub .. you can expect push-back from all and sundry if you keep spouting about how good FM was ... he wasn't.. he was lucky early on !
And so glad its all free-carry for you now .. not quite the picture you used to paint about 'will I see it all before I die' stuff ... how nice you were such a sage as to sell largely out on the spike but still ra-ra the hell out of it for 6 years ... who knew a retired geography teacher would turn out to be the next sage of Nebraska !
Give it a rest man
How predictable.... Cherry pick a golden age and no owning your many hard put downs of those who dared to point out failings of FM as the SP kept tumbling
I look forward to your silence
All just IMO of course
DYOR
Given the clarity of the mess FM created...how anyone can go 'but but but'
And as for Mokopane... What did he do with it... Nothing ... And the licence expired
Craig is providing some real operational clarity and communicating openly taking every question as it came... Despite many attempts to get FM to engage he did not... Now we know why... He barely had a clue
Sorry pdub... Take your blinkers off
He didn't mention a recovery cycle change or upgrade that might deliver 30+mtv a month ... at least I recall some chat about that a while ago and there was something I read recently that made me think there was something about it.
Would help explain some of the increased figures and the ability to cover for the shutdown periods
Anyone got any thoughts ?
But the s-l-a-g intro if/when Highfield gets going will make a big difference to Vanchem's output
What do you mean by that ....
I read the published terms as debt gets paid off and we have n opportunity to buy back a chunk of CLN in 2 years time
Way I read todays session is that Capex costs and debt repayments are covered for 2 years, that lowers the gearing substantially around (or maybe a bit below) CC's 50% long term view on max gearing
Nothing has changed .. the deal(s) are survival .. what has changed though is that Capex and debt payments for 2 years will be divorced from sales revenue .... a very good place to be at the bottom of the cycle.
I voted for all the SGM motions as a result
3/3
Vanchem kiln fail after refurb - not sure what this means .. re-lining every year is needed. Was a bit overdue in June this year and had to take the calculated risk of pushing it out a bit. Just run out of its use and now needs re-lining (limping along he said), but bringing works forward, but 2nd wk of Jan going to shut down for 10 days to bring works forward from the plan of Q2
Plans for dual-listing .. not even on the radar ... not got the level of credibility yet .. not out of the woods yet
Tanya - she didn't leave .. I suspended her . Failure to disclose ... lives in London and cannot get to SA so there is a process for a disciplinary in Jan (so she might be back !!! - lets hope not !!)
Cellcude and Lemur funds go to debt reduction .. More than enough cash to pay for Orion in 2024 & 2025 .. so no burning need .... looking for value back
... WOW ... the package means 24 months Capex & Debt funding .. a really really big deal !
When does vanadium pricing have to increase .. model . mid point Oct & Nov (so probably around $32 I guess) .. Even at that price has noticeable positive EBITDA ... so long as pricing does not really drop too much further is OK... not enough to fund all Operations next year but can make payments in 2024, 2025 and some in 2026 .. anything north of $35 will be absolutely fine
Cellcude and Lemur funds go to debt reduction .. More than enought cash to pay for Orion in 2024 & 2025 .. so no burning need ....
... WOW ... the package means 24 months
When does vanadium pricing have to increase .. model . mid point Oct & Nov (so probably around $32 I guess) .. Even at that price has noticeable positive EBITDA ... so long as pricing does not really drop too much further is OK... not enough to fund all capital next year but can make payments in 2024, 2025 and some in 2026 .. anything north of $35 will be absolutely fine
2/3
One of the significant investment choices (discussed in earlier IM's) was the need to build a new Barren Dam. How long (assuming all packages are approved) will this take and when could the bottleneck of it be visible in increased throughput ? - phased approach over 2 years .. unconstrained output in 2025 after phase 1
Do you have a figure and timeframe in mind for the sales of Cellcube and Lemur given the long term high level of sunk cost ? - would like to dispose of cellcube asap but looking for max value ....
Is any relationship with MUST now over ? - 15% of MUST ... will not sign a revised share agreement.. 'I think that says it all'
The proposed dilution (in Dec) is without knowing if the Orion Deal is final and done ... why should we vote for it without knowing the final picture ? - No expected changes from 29 Nov .... conditional on BEE aand Bank approval .. basically, gotta vote dec to allow completion process
Benefits of group structure simplificantion - a bit tricky to unwind but efficiency is key. Moving from a centralisied model to a decentrelised allowed more local accountability, reward and faster decision making .. reduce the decision making inertia. Does not yet know the size of the savings possible in operations - that is sometime in 2024 to review and simplify - got 10x suppliers than should have and half are not on contract ..
(has spoken before about outsourcing 'Projects Management' giving a 50%+ saving)
What is happening to BE ? ... a bit vague but we are going to cut the umbilicle ... so aside from Electrolyte BE is gone ! Energy will not be part of the business going forward .... That is a big statement (bye bye MN ..)
Mini-Grid - could run 'tomorrow' at full capacity - waiting for a (legal) compliance cert from Eskom - just a process ... its ready to roack 'n roll
Belco - (update earlier). Just waiting now. If nothing is forthcoming by the end of Q1 will have to start looking at options (to dispose). Not going to fund Working Capital forever .. again .. real focus !
Appropriate level of Gearing following the re-structure .. 'a lot lower than now' .. really want less than 50% as it is cylclic ... can live with 80% at the top of the cycle but not the bottom (where we are now)
(Looking at the next 2+ years of debt repayments covered by the deal, would bring the gearing down to below 50% .. the bigger operational picture looks rather clearer now)
What does BMN look like in 5 years time ... currently at around $30/kg, should be closer to $40. For every 10% in price $20m EBITDA .. so at $40 will be making $50M+ ebitda .... 'would like to see volumes significantly higher'. Irrisponsible to speculate on numbers but Kiln-1 but in its heyday was doing 100-150mtv/ pcm ... 'I see a Bushveld focusing on mining, but has significantly higher revenue, significantly more capacity'. The challenge is to make the base in 23/24 is much leaner and efficiencies in place as the 'new norm'.... doing excepti