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We should have a quater update in a week or 2. We will see if we will receive any news. I don't think they will sell the company.
I've been investing in bio-meds for years. They have to clear all the ŕegulatory hurdles before they get sales. Sometimes new drugs for big markets get bought out at phase 3, rarely at phase 2. Big pharma are always happy for the little guys to take all the risk. And market makers/bond holders etc always make sure it's a bumpy ride for us too.
Diagnostics are no easier. They want a finished product with full endorsements. We're nearly there.
Perhaps Trickymatters.....conversely, any announcement the sale process is off, then this tanks even more if that's possible - its penny share time. I have been invested here for some time.......and its only relatively recently that 'LCD' has become the 'must have'.....after everything else has failed to materialise sales. SB
If and when key words, and these apply to many companies on stock markets!
Be mad to sell now. It will multi-bag as soon as the LCD recommendation comes in. It's listed on Nasdaq. If it happens after hour trading hours it could be £1 the next morning.
I don't want to sell, as it may go to £1 overnight, and the company has enough money to survive next few months. If they sell 100000 test a year, they will have turnover of 99milion dollars. There is a potential but can the company use the potential?
SB, they can't sell much without the LCD. The rest is just skimming the edge of this market. LCD will set off the real penetration. Bit of a stand off going on. Bond holders behaviour is short termist. They don't care because they still have a hefty investment left anyway.
Blimey. £2 after averaging down. Maybe peaked too early there mate.
Trickymatters - I don't disagree with your observations on the ckd market and that the LCD is an important - and possibly final - milestone in the company's approach to insurance coverage. That said - lets not forget the significant real world evidence programme which has allowed the establishment of significant partnership agreements in the US with numerous health systems, health care plan insurance coverage covering tens of millions of lives, the Veterans Health system roll out, KDIGO inclusion, middle east distribution agreements, sales partnership with Eversana, presence at all major kidney led conferences, access to hundreds of thousands of GP physicians in thousands of hospitals, and its latest 10 year government acquisition contract for early stage kidney disease testing. And the sum total of that is selling a few hundred tests at month with an overhead that is still nuking the business. Perhaps now you can understand my scepticism. But I live in hope - if this company was fulfilling its potential it would be a billion dollar business. And £2 is after averaging down......SB
We're involved in a speculative activity. Everything is risky. I have made the averaging down tactic work for me. As SB has clearly explained the bond holders are converting their bonds by the looks of it. They're making profit right down to 20p. Not many buyers because RENX approach in the last significant RNS to position themselves as being prepared to go it alone is a mixed signal when they have also announced a bidder. I suspect that the bidder has put in an offer that Renx are not inclined to accept.
They are assuming that the talk of going it alone gives them more time for the enormity of the opportunity to kick in once they get recommended. They might get a couple of big orders straight off. But looks like a bit of a bluff to me. They don't have the scale to go large right now anyway. They're just trying to increase their bargaining power. Big pharma will be the ones who cash in. And any of us who are in at a low price like this obviously.
Hang in there SB, the average of my remaining shares is about £2.50! Love yr optimism Trickymatters, but averaging down is such a risky business...
We'll get an update when the US insurance industry report on their decision. The consultation ended in the third week of March. We may have weeks to wait. We may have days. The current sp will soon be irrelevant. Not sure you'll get a great return from a £2 entry SB. I would take the opportunity to average down if I were you. The broker says it will go for £2.00. That's my assumption. Could be £1.50. They're vulnerable with their debt. Potential buyers will be quite aware of that. On the other hand potential buyers will be aware that there will be competition. Two of the biggest pharma companies in the world are in the space for chronic kidney disease. The insurance industry will back this and then you have a market of about 10million people in the US who will benefit from the early intervention available through this test. Ckd can be managed. Acute kidney disease is a personal tragedy that nobody wants. I expect it to be aggressively marketed by the insurance industry themselves. They don't want to endure the much more expensive consequences of acute kidney disease- dialysis, kidney replacements, kidney removal, early mortality when they don't have to. It's a lifesaver and it will help extend good quality of life for millions.
I wish I could be a bit more encouraging unhooked but I'm struggling to see where this is going at present. The bond has a coupon of 5.5% payable quarterly - a decent deal at the time, and even better as interest rates spiked last year. The bond holder can be paid in cash or ADS shares - the ADS shares pricing are based on a weighted average over the last 10 days trading. They still have $13m on loan to April 2027 and are converting 3-4m shares per quarter based on current share price - so it looks like interest and capital repayments are being issued in ADS shares. The bond holder took up 750k new shares at 20p placing - and has sold roughly same amount from its overall holding in last few weeks at higher prices. Glad to hear you managed some trading profits. My average here is about £2....pretty grim!! SB
Thanks for the update SB, your well-researched scepticism is always valuable on this board.
"The convertible bond holder has been busy collecting its quarterly interest as shares and selling at the same time as participating in the $12m fundraise." So, are they basically selling the shares they collect in lieu of interest? That's crazy! Do you happen to know the interest rate on these bonds?
"I have no idea where this will end up, although like others here I'm hoping for an exit at a decent price - but I have no confidence that is achievable given that would mean a price multiples of where we are today" Very much the same SB. I will never make a profit on RENX, overall. I was able to profitably sell tranches at 45p and 57p when we LTHs were presented with a 'get out of jail free' card earlier in the year, and so have substantially de-risked my holding here. However my remaining shares were all bought in the 200p's and 300p's, so i have no illusion that I'll get anything like my money back on those. The only question for me now is to what extent will my losses on these shares overwhelm the trading profits I've already banked. At least I can say RENX won't be my worst loss. Not anymore!
Its all a bit bizarre unhooked. Its now two months since the company announced it had ben approached for a potential sale, and we await an update in that regard. In the meantime, they raised $12m from a placing at 20p and a further $1.5m at 30p from DB Capital which in itself was a mysterious given there was no immediate requirement for additional funding. The convertible bond holder has been busy collecting its quarterly interest as shares and selling at the same time as participating in the $12m fundraise. Just at the point where it looks like the company may be sold, its president Tom McLain since inception is leaving to be replaced by newbie Howard Doran who has apparently built a 'sales team from individuals with leading industry sales track records', despite there being no evidence whatsoever that the company is actually selling any more tests. The company's peak valuation was £1b; and we are now hovering around the £30m mark. Given the scale of the opportunity - what is the company actually worth given its current significant loss making model? The only chance of a sale being made needs to have the support of the majority shareholders given they control c.80% of the business. More than 60m new shares have been issued in the last six months - mostly to existing shareholders. I have no idea where this will end up, although like others here I'm hoping for an exit at a decent price - but I have no confidence that is achievable given that would mean a price multiples of where we are today. SB
Share price taking daily punishment on the lack of news... it feels like the old days.
I would love to see an update regarding which way they are going on what is the plan. Bio tech companies are not always the best on finance side as they never care about it. They usually closed in labs and only thinking about research.
Update with next steps would be grate.